Jeez stop sweating the price of oil. Hell its 3 times what it was just 3-4 years ago and look at where we are .... damn near record profits from just about everybody...

Keep an eye on it... but dont let that influence what you do in this bizness.

Based on the information I have read and my friends who are pilots, there definitely is a pilot shortage. My buddy who is a pilot for SkyWest said the pilot shortage is already here. In regards to ATP flight training, you dont just complete the course and go to an airline. They have agreements with airlines that will hire ATP pilots with lower mins, but you must instruct for at least a few months before you can get hired by one of them. I understand the legitimate concern that the fast track training program might not adequately prepare commercial pilots to fly, however, that is why for most of the regional airlines you have a to instruct and gain a couple hundred extra hours before getting on board.

In contrast, I think it depends on each individual going to ATP. Some people can soak up information quickly. I graduated college in 3.5 years, and have the same knowledge that others who took 4-5 years to graduate. My friend at SkyWest has flown with some pilots who went through ATP and said most of them are very good pilots. One negative he mentioned, is that some of them are arrogant and think they know everything. Also, if a pilot isnt prepared or knowledgeable enough to then they will not pass the Regional Checkride. Does anyone see where I am coming from?

There is a lot more to it than passing the "regional checkride".

"I understand the legitimate concern that the fast track training program might not adequately prepare commercial pilots to fly, however, that is why for most of the regional airlines you have a to instruct and gain a couple hundred extra hours before getting on board."

If it's a legitimate concern, why do you think it's okay for a "not adequately prepared" new ATP CFI to be teaching zero time pilots? That could be even worse than if they were in the right seat of an RJ.

There is nothing new you are bringing up. This has all been hashed about over and over at this site and at JC. The one common thing I see about 90% of the time is it's the low timers trying to convince the high timers they are wrong about low timers.

Good luck with that. It's no more likely than you being convinced you need to think twice about your views by a high timer. Not gonna happen.

So, I'll leave you with this. Come back to us when you're a new RJ Capt and let us know what you think about having a 500 hour F/O.

Hi!

Oil:
Oil will be hitting $100/barrel. Then it will continue climbing over $150/barrel.

My prediction is it will get to about $250/barrel until the combination of demand/drop and alt fuel availability will allow it to decline, until it is down around $10/barrel or less.

Anyone else want to predict the max price of oil???

Instructor/Pilot Shortage:
There is a very large instructor shortage. Even the US, which, along with Canada, are the only two countries that still have more pilots than jobs, is getting more and more critical on instructors. More than one flight school has closed, because they lost all their instructors.

Boeing says there is worldwide demand for 17,000 airline pilots a year for the next 20 years. Much of the lack of instructors is because so many foreign students are coming here for training-they suck up a lot of spots, and those schools pay a lot. I just saw an ad for one of them-$42K per year to flight instruct for them, and you build a lot of time fast.

Skyhigh:
Your stats of 10K new commercial pilots/year is wrong. The FAA says there are now LESS commercial pilots than there were 5 years ago. If 10K are being produced, that means that more than 10K per year are dropping out.
Note: I'll correct myself:
I guess that, theoretically, 10K new commercial pilots per year COULD be true, but then that means that since the US is experiencing a net loss of commercial pilots every year, that more than 10K per year are dropping out, which is a making the pilot shortage worse, not better.

Aerospace Pilot:
As of 10.14.07 UAL, NWA, USAir AND ABX are all hiring, right now, today. Both UAL and NWA have already started new hires in training, and I think USAir has, too.

ExperimentalAB:
Regionals will have enough pilots by the end of the year??? No way! They are short, and getting shorter and more desperate with each month that goes by. For example, Pinnacle paid a penalty to NWA for failing to meet flight-completion rates because of a lack of crews. They don't have enough pilots now, and they are ADDING aircraft starting in Dec for Delta. Most regionals just lowered their mins AGAIN. Some didn't, because THEY HAVE NO MINIMUM HOUR REQUIREMENTS. Many regionals have been MASSIVLY reducing the hours required to upgrade to captain, because they HAVE to. Mesaba is now hiring street captains!

Military:
Set schedule? Wrong. It is all timing, just like all other aviation jobs. If you go to flight school, and they are trying to RIF (get rid of pilots), you can wash out with a few bad rides. If they need pilots, on the other hand, they will fly you and fly you and fly you until you get it right. You can re-take your checkride multiple times, and you will only wash out if they absolutely can't teach you to pass the next checkride.

cliff
ABQ

nope.... but I predict you need to get off the sauce... :)

Once again, I understand where you are coming from. That is why I stated that each individual can learn and retain information at a different pace. Since I graduated from Purdue in 3.5 yrs, does that make me less qualified than someone who finished in 4-5 yrs. No, I just accelerated my learning and took the same classes in a shorter period of time. I am not saying that every pilot that comes out of ATP's "fast track" program is perfect and a great instructor. What I am saying is that just b/c someone completes an accelerated program doesnt make them not as qualified as someone who took 10 months. If I was a CA with an low hour FO next to me, would I be concerned? Not really, because I have faith that if he was hired and met all the qualifications then he is knoweldgeable enough. Obviously he is not seasoned, but I believe that he would have the knowledge base. Not to mention, if I was a CA and my FO was having difficulty I would mentor him and help him get wear he needs to be. That is what good leaders and managers do, but I definitely understand where you are coming from. You make a very valid point, but I will tell you once I complete ATP's program, flight instruct, and become an FO the CA will not have to worry I will be prepared.

It comes down to each seperate individual. Heck, my friend at SkyWest says there are tons of bad pilots with alot of hours. He even says some of the CA's are clueless. I guess I look at it as, in any field you go into, there are going to be good and bad. When I am on a plane, I hope I have the good.

Let me know what you think.

No disrespect.....but you don't understand where he is coming from. "De" has layed out many reasons why he feels the way he feels yet your retorts are that you "understand" but then you proceed to use the same reasoning over and over again. THEN you say..."let me know what you think".... he has, we have you just dont want to hear it or accept it. good luck to you.

What he is trying to say is that knowledge and experience are 2 completely different things. if you graduated from law school with all A's, would you be as good of a lawyer as somebody who has actually been working cases for 10 years? Usually not. There are always exceptions, but they are just that, exceptions, not the rule. The same thing as flying. You can know the rules and procedures from head to toe, but until you actually put them to use, you haven't proven anything. ATP gets you the ratings, but not the experience. That's what odd jobs are for before you enter 121.

Fair Enough

"Let me know what you think."

There's not much else to say. Like I said, it's been talked about from 100 different angles for years. Use the search function if you want to see more opinions.

Thank you for clarifying. Now I understand where he is coming from.

LeoSV explained what you meant. I understand now. Thanks for your insight. I really appreciate it. That is why this site is a great resource to learn about the industry.

Thanks

My contention
 

It is one of my oldest quests here to prove exactly that: Every year 10,000 new commercial pilots are issued while almost the same number or more give up and let their medicals lapse.

Even the FAA is trying to figure out how high pilot turn over is. The problem is difficult for some reason since they do not have records of pilot deaths and retirements. They also can not determine who is active from those who are sidelined. I have been in email and phone contact with one of the statisticians from the FAA who is also trying to work the numbers to prove the same thing.

In any case at any one time there are almost 260,000 commercial and ATP licensed pilots with current medicals.

I am sure that the pilot shortage will get worse due to the shortage of jobs that are worth having.

Skyhigh

Cliff..when I went thru UPT...1985..... there was NO fly you and fly you and fly you.... 2 busted rides got you an 88 eval ride... bust that you went to an 89 elimination ride.... bust that you were GONE. There was no coddeling... no fly until he gets it.. you got it on THEIR schedule or you were out...finished ...end of story. In those days wash out rates averaged 50% in flight school and in some classes even exceeded that.... my class started 66....graduated 27.

T-37 solo was a pretty big deal...but there was only a three ride block to acomplish it.... rides 8, 9 or 10 in the jet. if by 10 you were not ready you were going to an eval ride.....end of story.

Now... i admit... UPT isnt what it was from that respect. I have a friend who is a retired LTCOL who is a sim instructor at a UPT base and he recently told me that it sickened him with how much extra time he was obligated to give to a student to get them thru... so yes... it has changed.... but not for the good in my opinion.


this coddeling of UPT students is a rather new thing just in the past few years .... they would be better served washing out the weak ones in my opinion.

It's been going on since at least 2000 when I went through. It's the biggest complaint I have for the split track system. There were 2-3 in my class that would(should) have washed out because they would have killed themselves trying to solo the T-38.

Does the USAF use the T-38 for anything other than training now?

Like? I don't think it was ever used for anything but training....as far as I know anyway. Hence, the T- designation.

NASA fly's some of them, When I went thru UPT at Willy there was an F-5 ( T-38 on steroids ) training sqd that trained foreign pilots how to fly the Tiger II ( F-5) . On my second T-38 Solo I was re-entering the pattern coming up high initial and a mexican pilot stalled a F-5 in the final turn... no flap...no slats.. it stalled and rolled over on its back.... smoking hole in the final turn.... NOW that will get the attention of a solo student....!!!

Still happening today, unfortunately.

I just came from a stint teaching LIFT (IFF) and having to deal with the "student product" coming from the current SUPT system.

I have heard some stories that make my blood boil....students reinstated to training two or three times after hooking 89s! Circa 2003 I heard that there had been ZERO T-38 SUPT washouts in the previous year! They are DEFINITELY kicking the can of substandard pilots down the training pipeline for someone else to deal with.

It's a damn shame.

No washouts.. holy crap batman.... I can tell ya the year I was at willy...85-86... half the stud's didnt make it....

Hacker...what you are alluding to is backed up by the retired LTCOL that I know at a UPT base who basically said the same thing. He went so far as to say that he had known of some guys who essentially never passed a check ride.... they always ended up at 89's where they were passed. Just doesnt seem right to me.