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Old 01-11-2008, 11:42 AM
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Default your predictions on a merged DAL/NWA regional fleet

It looks like this is going to happen soon, and it will probably take years to figure out but who's left regional wise after this merger.
I think Pinnacle is in good standing becuase we fly for both and have long term contracts with both.
I think Skywest and republic are also good
After that I have no idea.
What do you think?
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Old 01-11-2008, 12:00 PM
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I think if DAL/NWA merge, the Compass and Mesaba pilots might have a little to worry about. The "flowback" and all.
I am going to dig into NWA's contract a little more. That's another reason I am leaning toward NWA (if offered). IF the poop hits the fan, at least I could flowback into the left seat of an RJ, keep my seniority number at the LARGEST airline, and make more than I would as a first year FO there. No street for me?
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Old 01-11-2008, 12:26 PM
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I don't know how Compass flowthough-back works but at Mesaba only the number that flow up can flow back. So if 5 Mesaba guys flow up only 5 can flowback.

C
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by mtnbiker View Post
I don't know how Compass flowthough-back works but at Mesaba only the number that flow up can flow back. So if 5 Mesaba guys flow up only 5 can flowback.

C

True. Hard to predict if NWA and Delta will merge. Delta is looking at United as well so who will wind up merging with Delta is anybody's guess.
All regionals at risk if Majors start to merge. For one, NWA likes to have a tight control over regional flying, and if NWA merges with Delta, that trend is very likely to continue. Compass is at risk if that happens. Mesaba is in relatively good position because of the flow through language that protects Mesaba pilots from flowback. Only limited to same number that flows up. As far as what will happen to Skywest, Pinnacle, RAH and Comair is anybody's guess. The 50 seat RJs are likely to shrink in size whereas 76 or greater seat RJs are likely to increase.
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by mtnbiker View Post
I don't know how Compass flowthough-back works but at Mesaba only the number that flow up can flow back. So if 5 Mesaba guys flow up only 5 can flowback.

C

Any one know how many Mesaba pilots have moved up to NWA to give us an idea of how many can flow-back?
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by jayray2 View Post
Any one know how many Mesaba pilots have moved up to NWA to give us an idea of how many can flow-back?
I think only 3 were allowed to so far. They just started this month.
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:47 PM
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So far none have moved from Mesaba to NWA. Six pilots are currently about to flow up, but will be held back for 3 months. Mesaba has nothing to worry about from the flow-up-back system. As far as where we would stand when the dust settles, that's anyone's guess.

As far as the statement about NWA having a long history of tight control over their regionals, it's worth remembering that DAL's CEO has a long history of being NWA's CEO.
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by jayray2 View Post
Any one know how many Mesaba pilots have moved up to NWA to give us an idea of how many can flow-back?
It is premature to be talking about flowback as NWA is hiring briskly and Mesaba pilots are flowing up starting this month. As of now NWA does not have any need to flowback any of its pilots because NWA is not furloughing its pilots. Opposite is true. NWA is hiring aggressivley.
3 per month will start to flow up from Mesaba from January through August and 9 starting September 2008 onward. Air travel, especially international travel is expected to more than double in the next 5 years, so it is not likely hiring by NWA will stop anytime soon.
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed View Post
The 50 seat RJs are likely to shrink in size whereas 76 or greater seat RJs are likely to increase.

What about the 34 seat turboprops???
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Old 01-11-2008, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed View Post
It is premature to be talking about flowback as NWA is hiring briskly and Mesaba pilots are flowing up starting this month. As of now NWA does not have any need to flowback any of its pilots because NWA is not furloughing its pilots. Opposite is true. NWA is hiring aggressivley.
3 per month will start to flow up from Mesaba from January through August and 9 starting September 2008 onward. Air travel, especially international travel is expected to more than double in the next 5 years, so it is not likely hiring by NWA will stop anytime soon.
Very true. Many are retiring early, and both NWA and DAL are planning great amounts of international flying. Remember, an international flight requires more crew than a domestic flight. Right now, from what I understand NWA is hiring for attrition, early retirements, and I don't believe furloughs will be seen in the near future, merger or no merger.
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