Quote:
Originally Posted by Spad
Sorry if I missed this, but what's your take on what DL will do with ASA? Stay same size, reduce, grow? Do you think there is likelihood of furloughs? I know from the GLA threads you jumped to ASA at the right time. So what does your crystal ball say about the brave new world for DCI?
Despite Trip 7 being a new hire, I basically agree with his analysis. I do, however, believe that the "ATL 80%" will be renegotiated in exchange for the "2nd from the bottom in cost" clause, and we will lose some ATL flying, but gain flying elsewhere. I also doubt we will see new flying from other airlines, since everyone else (especially UAL) is in the ditch. Mesa COULD tank, opening up some UAL flying, but I get the vibe from St George that SkyWest Inc wants less tickets on the Chicago Titanic, not more.
I gave my take on furloughs above. I'd consider the 30-40 -200s that DAL owns the wild card on that. It all depends what they do with them. They could sell them to us (unlikely), leave them alone (possible), take them with no replacement (unlikely), or take them and replace them with half as many -900s (very likely). Options 3 and 4 would require less pilots, and we're already overstaffed. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
I'm starting to hear credible mumblings of new bases up north. Some people in the GO are buzzing that "we will be taking over 60% of CVG flying next year, and a base is being considered". I have not been able to verify this, so I'll consider it a rumor. One thing that is clear is that The New Delta plans to completely reshuffle the deck with DCI and "spread the wealth around". I wouldn't be surprised to see ASA do more flying in The Great White North, just like MSA and PCL are down here.
Bottom line: yes, I have had great success "reading the writing on the wall" throughout my career, and I don't see ASA in immediate danger. I think we will shrink a little for the next few years. By then we'll be in our next contract negotiations. If our pilots beat their chests for an industry leading contract again, I wouldn't expect to see growth. If we settle for reasonable QOL gains and a COLA, we may see some. Time will tell.