2012 Boom in Hiring
07-16-2009 | 06:12 AM
#111
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,963
Likes: 0
From: SkyWest Capt.
As for DAL, they’re just #1 on my list and if they don’t hire me I‘ll move on to #2.
07-16-2009 | 06:13 AM
#112
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 740
Likes: 0
Oh, I picked up the retirement numbers a couple of years ago, I think. I add to it whenever I see new numbers. I actually have retirements that go 25 years or so for American (wow!) and old Delta. If American gets their act together, they are the place to be in the future.
07-16-2009 | 06:22 AM
#113
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,963
Likes: 0
From: SkyWest Capt.
I agree, that's why they're my number two.
07-16-2009 | 06:26 AM
#114
Underboob King
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 4,412
Likes: 0
From: Guppy Commander
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
))))))))))))
07-16-2009 | 06:44 AM
#116
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 82
Likes: 0
From: in a seat
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
07-16-2009 | 07:07 AM
#117
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 182
Likes: 0
And if you want to believe in the "attrition" theory, well dont waste your time. If push comes to shove, they will just start a "Cadet" program and do away with attrition problems. After all its a lot cheaper for them to pay from someone's training at cost then to increase pay and QOL.
We have never experienced a true pilot shortage or we may have seen a cadet program. I think that they would be weary of one simply for liability reasons. If anything happens and the FO has 300 hours and is sitting right seat in a 757, not going to sit well.
07-16-2009 | 07:14 AM
#118
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,963
Likes: 0
From: SkyWest Capt.
I agree with some of your points. I am not sure that every regional pilot will have that opportunity at a major of choice. Mergers don't help, nor do companies going belly up or gasp getting absorbed by a regional (okay, national). 5 years is long enough for at least a few more of these events to happen.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
07-16-2009 | 07:29 AM
#119
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 82
Likes: 0
From: in a seat
if/when this does turn around, I see the 90's coming back. That is where a 4 year degree was required and a Masters was preferred. Add some serious TT and PIC as well to even be near competitive. I don't see these companies opening up the flood gates and letting every ipod, backpack totting fool in. Competition will be stiff initially as there will be more applicants that jobs. Thus, a cadet program could be the preferred way. There is a lot to be said to start the training from the way THEY want it versus retraining everyone. Either way, if/when it happens, it is surely going to be interesting.
07-16-2009 | 07:35 AM
#120
Moderator
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,634
Likes: 0
From: Tiki bar
I recall vividly in the 80's a ad in a NY newspaper looking for pilots with a commercial license. The company was Eastern Airlines. In the NY area, recruiters actually came out to the local airports looking for people. I recall other "major" airlines at the time having similar ad's in the help wanted sections, albeit Eastern's was the lowest I ever saw.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
