Thanks everyone for answering, and yes i was asking for the agreement to fly for them not pilot contracts. I was thinking th same thing as someone else mentioned about the wholly owned carries taking the brunt of the downsizing since we do not have a specific number of planes we have to fly for them but after contracts start coming due if what delta says comes true the others will start getting phased out and that flying shifted to Mesaba, Comair and Compass. Granted a lot can change between now and then. I also think they said 100 50 seater's not specifically 200. Correct me if i am wrong but i think mesa/freedom fly's 145 and those are 50 seater's so i think they are counting some of those. you can correct me if i am wrong about 145 since i have never flown one or flown in one.

 

Yup, DL said all t-props and something like 100 50 seaters gone in the next few years. If you count ASAs 20, Freedom/Chautauquas almost 50 combined 145s and all of the scheduled Comair returns for 2010 and 2011 your number gets very close to 100.

 

In Comair's case the pilot contract states a certain number of airframes. That side letter of the contract is between Comair ALPA and Delta, so Delta can't just blow it off and make Comair go away.

So, when the pilot contract expires, Delta has no legal grounds to keep any aircraft on Comair's certificate.

In effect, March 2, 2011 is the day Comair's 70s, 90s, and remaining 50-seaters can be freely awarded to other carriers.

Well, not exactly free, but maybe for a dollar a month like when Delta leased the 900s to Freedom and SkyWest in 2007. Too bad Comair, ASA, and Pinnacle didn't bid a buck fifty.

 

They are not going to get rid of the contract carriers. If they do that, the wholly-owneds will unite in a heartbeat and demand massive compensation increases.

I suspect the ideal mix is about 1/3 wholly-owned and 2/3 contract. That way they get to keep some feed profit from the WO's as well as use them as an "accumulator" when they need to make sudden capacity cuts. But the whole purpose of regionals is whipsaw to get cheaper pilots...too much wholly-owned defeats that purpose.

 

Under the RLA contracts only become amendable, they do not expire. The min fleet is an LOA, I"m not sure if that changes anything though.

 

Everything changes though, who knows with this JAL agreement they may need more feed, and start pulling 50 seaters out of storage.

 

I agree. If JAL picks DAL, DAL stands to gain a good deal of international routes to US and Europe. This will in turn necessitate increased Domestic feed. I don't think they will pull out 50 seaters but I see increase in 70 to 76 seater jet usage. Japanese passengers have a preference for connecting through DTW.

 

I see your rationale but, I think the mix will be the other way around. DAL only needs one or two contract carriers to whipsaw W/O against each other. Plus DAL can always whipsaw one W/O against another, like they are doing right now with Compass against Mesaba and Comair. Compass is hiring while Mesaba and Comair is furloughing. All three W/O are on separate seniority list eventhough many of administrative functions of Compass are handled by Mesaba. This is the main reason why I do not think Comair, Compass and Mesaba will ever merge their seniority list. DAL already has the cheapest regional operation with Compass. Their most senior pilots have less than 2.7 year seniority and their work rules are subpar when compared to Mesaba, Comair, SkyWest/ASA. Compass has no infrastructure to speak of. You do the math.

Also, RA has repeatedly said that he intends to keep most of the flying inhouse in the future. DAL has also indicated that they want to reduce the number of DCIs down from 9 to 5 or less. My guess is Mesaba, Compass, Comair, and 2 contract DCI carriers like SkyWest/ASA will stay around after the dust settles in the next few years. It's very possible Chautauqua, and Mesa lift will go away. Pinnacle lift will probably see reduction in stages over the next 5 to 10 years if not sooner and gradually taken over by W/O or some routes not replaced at all.

Since CRJ9 numbers are maxed out acccording to some very vocal DAL junior guys on this forum, I doubt Pinnacle or anyone else for that matter getting any more CRJ9s in the next few years, unless DAL adds more mainline jets. E175s are maxed out also and I do not see DAL getting any more E175s in the future so Compass will not see any growth.

 

Easy there tiger, I wouldn't start proclaiming DL is going to be te new JAL with routes to the rest of the world from Japan. There are bilateral agreements and laws to follow with where DL can fly. I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in flights to Japan but I highly doubt we will see DL flying to Europe, Australasia and anywhere that doesn't involve the US and their Japan 5th freedom rights. IF DL indeed increases capacity from the states to Japan, it will likely be at the detriment of the valuable interport network within Asia to Japan. Further, there is a huge and very efficient hub that Korean Air operates in Seoul which could also bear a lot of the backfill with a shrunken JAL. JAL isn't going anywhere, they're just right sizing, like everyone else does in Ch11, so there isn't going to be meat for ALL the vultures.

 

Didn't you admonish JayRay for not reading your post. Dude, learn to read my entire post. I did not proclaim anything. If JAL picks DAL which seems like a sure thing, based on ETIC conclusion, DAL IS poised to gain a great deal, pending DOT approval of Anti Trust Immunity. With DOT approval, DAL via SkyTeam Alliance stands to gain a good deal of JAL international routes from Japan to US AND Europe with Air France. I am well aware of Korean Airlines will also pick up a lot of JAL international routes. Korean Airlines is a member of the SkyTeam alliance and on Major section under the JAL/DAL thread, I said DAL better court Korean Airlines and China Eastern as well. I also said nothing about JAL disappearing. JAL is restructuring and when it emerges it will be a smaller airline. You are reading more into what I wrote than there is. Also I said nothing about Australasian flights Jal does.

Your condescending attitude is getting tiresome. Just because you've been at Mesaba longer than anybody on this forum does not give you the right to lecture everyone. Nor does it mean you know more than I. Maybe you do, maybe you don't. Just don't try to take every chance you can to show everyone how much smarter you are than everyone on here.