I consider 10 years longterm. Delta just renewed the agreement on 36 76 seaters for another ten years last month. I am not trying to "prove" anything. I am asking the question, how will scope be tightened?

 

Disagree. For the aircraft to have a true operational cost advantage vs. a new S-SA (Spinoff-Stand Alone) model, EVERY mainline labor group at any specific carrier would have to agree to competitive compensation and that's HIGHLY unlikely. Not preferable anyway.

They'll find it much better to spin off and avoid the downfalls of hopelessly expensive and more leverage prone mainline labor (at least in their eyes, which is all that matters) and have a leaner, fresher and more flexible operator of those aircraft and it would be "in house" to boot.........it would just be a newer, more efficient house on the block, for any carriers current shareholders.

 

You can't count on anything in this business. The leap from a CRJ-900 to a 100 seat jet is not that far. They gave up the flying to this point and they will do it again. Pilots can bang the "take it back" drum all day long, I will believe it when I see it.

 

Well you see it now, so you can believe it. Scope does not allow it.

 

Does anyone know what the TA at AirTran allows regarding size of aircraft that can codeshare?
I have hearsay that it is 84 or 86 seats. Am I correctly informed?
If it is true, it will effectively bring up the floor of the minimum number of outsourced seats. AirTran is large enough that a competitive advantage such as this can't be ignored.

 

The TA'd scope section at AT does raise it to 86 seat jets from 70. A cap of 15 of these new jets, with 5 more allowed under certain (growth) conditions. However those who are justifying that section say that it is because they currently lack comprehensive holding company scope. IOW, the company could do far greater long term damage later with regards to outsourcing within the corporate shell game, so they aren't "selling" up to 20 seats in that seat range but more like agreeing to what can be imposed on them right now anyway in exchange for comprehensive holding company scope. That is how some are explaining it at least. In any case, regardless of AT's impending new floor (assuming it passes ratification), all other majors (except JetBlue) have such scope already at the 70-76 seat limits, and as such will not be in the position to be extorted in the negotiating room over that issue. Any scope give aways from any legacy pilot group will simply be tiny little trinkets that no one appears to be receptive to in the slightest.

This is by no means a "game changer" like you are suggesting it is. I know pilots like to look at trends. That's a wise thing to do. But it doesn't mean every trend continues forever otherwise everytime you apply takeoff power that trend means you're going to be going mach 5 pretty soon, every time you turn you're going to roll and every time you slow down it means you're going to stall. Trends can be reversed. Look for it WRT scope. Some regionals not that long ago at all had 4 engine planes that sat well in excess of the current 70-76 seat limits. That has been sucessfully reversed by, drumroll please, scope...and the wheels were put in motion for that to happen even before the boom/bust contracts of 2000-2001 where scope in volume was sold in good times for a cookie and again in bad times for "bargaining credits" to be applied to cuts.

 

For all who are insistent that Legacy pilots will just sell more scope take a look at this.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...27-706936.html

Continental, United Pilots Seek To End Outsourcing To Regional Airlines

By Doug Cameron

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


HOUSTON (Dow Jones)-Pilots at Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) and UAL Corp.'s (UAUA) United Airlines want to end outsourcing of flying to regional partners following their planned merger, a move likely to shake up the industry's already turbulent labor relations.

The companies' pilots aim to finalize a new joint contract by the end of the year, and this week proposed bringing all flying in-house over a period of years following a merger that would create the world's largest airline by revenue.

U.S. network airlines have outsourced large parts of their domestic networks to an array of regional airlines over the past 20 years in a bid to cut costs, though the amount is capped by "scope" clauses in their pilots' collective bargaining agreements.

Jay Pierce, head of Continental's pilots' union, expects the proposal to receive a cool reception from management, but said mainline company pilots can fly regional jets just as cheaply following years of contract concessions.

"We put it on the table [on Wednesday]," said Pierce in an interview at the union's Houston office. "It's a proposition we believe will not be readily acceptable [to management]."

Continental Airlines has one of the industry's most restrictive scope clauses. Only mainline pilots can fly jets with more than 50 seats, and the airline contracts ExpressJet Holdings Inc. (XJT) to fly more than 200 smaller Embraer aircraft on its behalf.

United has more flexible work practices that enable it to fly more than 150 70-seat regional jets. Rising fuel costs have made 50-seat jets less economic, while the emergence of new aircraft in the 70 to 130-seat range have made airlines look to loosen the restrictions of existing scope clauses.

The proposal from the Continental and United pilots includes an initial cap on outsourcing, then a move away from the practice over what Pierce described as "multiple years".

Continental declined comment.

Management throughout the industry has become stuck in a mindset where they feel they have to subcontract more flying, said Pierce.

U.S. network airlines have already carved out almost all of their regional flying units. AMR Corp. (AMR) is working on plans that could lead to a sale or spin-off of its American Eagle business, and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) recently sold two of its three remaining regional operations.

Pierce said he is confident a new pilots' deal can be hammered out with Continental and United by year-end, in line with the airlines' merger schedule, though a decision will be taken Oct. 12 whether enough progress has been made to continue the current fast pace of negotiations.

The airlines and the pilots have learned lessons from previous mergers, especially the combination of America West to form an enlarged US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), where labor issues remain unresolved after five years. Pilots at Delta and Northwest Airlines forged a joint deal before the two carriers merged in 2008.

"Being third is good," said Pierce. He said one of the thorniest issues - merging the airlines' pilot seniority lists - won't be tackled until a new contract is agreed.

Other areas include furloughs. United has more than 1,400 pilots on furlough while Continental has 147, all of whom Pierce expects to be called back by year-end. The transition deal calls for furloughed United pilots to be called back to whichever airline requires them before any fresh hiring.[/QUOTE]