2014-2015 outlook
04-26-2011, 08:06 PM
#51
Respek
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,603
Originally Posted by N5467C
What will the airlines be like in 2014-2015, if fuel prices stay where they are at now? Will scope agreements change, and have anything to do will guys/gals retiring, and high fuel costs?
04-26-2011, 09:48 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Posts: 781
outlook is good! or at least we all hope so!
saudi stated that their oil output will be increased in the next few years. granted that doesn't solve our rising fuel cost currently but with more electric and environmental friendly automobiles, yes we should see the oil settle down. it's china eating up all the oil and driving the prices up.
fuel efficient engines such as the one on MRJ which should be in production soon will offset 20-30% of the fuel cost. they're 75-100 seaters I believe so yes it seems like airlines are favoring that seating range. unless you think folks over at mitsubishi and bombardier with their c-series didn't do their homework on the future demands before spending MILLIONs into developing the next gen aircraft.
what that says is the fact that majors will not be growing in the future. most of them are replacing their old a/c. it also means our regional pay will get better. increasing seats for regional and cutting the cost for major salaries, while paying regionals the lower end of the median in comparison to the seats.
as dirty as that sounds, we got some smart people running these airlines. bastards... but smart
saudi stated that their oil output will be increased in the next few years. granted that doesn't solve our rising fuel cost currently but with more electric and environmental friendly automobiles, yes we should see the oil settle down. it's china eating up all the oil and driving the prices up.
fuel efficient engines such as the one on MRJ which should be in production soon will offset 20-30% of the fuel cost. they're 75-100 seaters I believe so yes it seems like airlines are favoring that seating range. unless you think folks over at mitsubishi and bombardier with their c-series didn't do their homework on the future demands before spending MILLIONs into developing the next gen aircraft.
what that says is the fact that majors will not be growing in the future. most of them are replacing their old a/c. it also means our regional pay will get better. increasing seats for regional and cutting the cost for major salaries, while paying regionals the lower end of the median in comparison to the seats.
as dirty as that sounds, we got some smart people running these airlines. bastards... but smart
04-27-2011, 05:52 AM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Position: EMB145 FO
Posts: 273
As much as it pains me to say it I think we're heading towards a scenario where the majors will shrink even further while regionals and low cost carriers grow and take over the vast majority of domestic flying. The days of the 50 seat regional jet are numbered, but as a previous poster pointed out, the likes of Bombardier, Embraer, Mitsubishi etc are all driving growth in the 70-120 seat jet market.
I firmly believe that in the near future the majors will retrench to concentrating mainly on long haul, international flying with a few transcon services thrown in for good measure. Scope clauses will either become a thing of the past, will be circumnavigated or just ignored and the regionals will take on more capacity on bigger aircraft. We'll never see a 737 or A320 in the regionals, but why would we need to when we have aircraft such as the EMB 195? Domestic flights will mainly be operated by the regionals (still under the brands of the majors). The regionals offer the flexibility that the majors want in the domestic market and take away a lot of the dirty work involved.
In between the majors and the regionals, airlines such as Virgin America, JetBlue etc will continue to do what they do, offering transcon flights, and limited international such as Mexico and the Caribbean.
The regionals will probably move to aircraft such as the Q400 for their 70 seat or less markets while utilising bigger jets such as the MRJ, C-Series or EMB170/190 for their bigger markets.
Sadly, this is just the way it's going these days. Not just here in the US, but also in Europe and Asia. The advent of low fares airlines and in turn the passengers expectation of a $89 transcon one way fare means that the majors have become outdated in their domestic markets with too high a cost base that means they can not directly compete with carriers with a lower cost base such as Southwest, JetBlue etc. By outsourcing their loss making domestic flying to the regionals, the majors can once again return to profitability.
Unfortunately the outcome of all of this will mean less of us going to the majors, worse terms and conditions and the prospect of being a career regional airline pilot. In reality we won't be flying the old definition of a 'regional' flight though. We'll be doing plenty of flights in excess of 2 hours, flying from hub to hub in addition to our current sleepy backwater, small town airport to hub flying. It's already happening, why did I fly on a CRJ from DTW to JFK last month, or from ORD to EWR on an E170 the month before?
This is the reality that we face, not just here in the US, but in Europe (although the majority of flying there is now done by low cost airlines as opposed to regionals) and in Asia too.
I firmly believe that in the near future the majors will retrench to concentrating mainly on long haul, international flying with a few transcon services thrown in for good measure. Scope clauses will either become a thing of the past, will be circumnavigated or just ignored and the regionals will take on more capacity on bigger aircraft. We'll never see a 737 or A320 in the regionals, but why would we need to when we have aircraft such as the EMB 195? Domestic flights will mainly be operated by the regionals (still under the brands of the majors). The regionals offer the flexibility that the majors want in the domestic market and take away a lot of the dirty work involved.
In between the majors and the regionals, airlines such as Virgin America, JetBlue etc will continue to do what they do, offering transcon flights, and limited international such as Mexico and the Caribbean.
The regionals will probably move to aircraft such as the Q400 for their 70 seat or less markets while utilising bigger jets such as the MRJ, C-Series or EMB170/190 for their bigger markets.
Sadly, this is just the way it's going these days. Not just here in the US, but also in Europe and Asia. The advent of low fares airlines and in turn the passengers expectation of a $89 transcon one way fare means that the majors have become outdated in their domestic markets with too high a cost base that means they can not directly compete with carriers with a lower cost base such as Southwest, JetBlue etc. By outsourcing their loss making domestic flying to the regionals, the majors can once again return to profitability.
Unfortunately the outcome of all of this will mean less of us going to the majors, worse terms and conditions and the prospect of being a career regional airline pilot. In reality we won't be flying the old definition of a 'regional' flight though. We'll be doing plenty of flights in excess of 2 hours, flying from hub to hub in addition to our current sleepy backwater, small town airport to hub flying. It's already happening, why did I fly on a CRJ from DTW to JFK last month, or from ORD to EWR on an E170 the month before?
This is the reality that we face, not just here in the US, but in Europe (although the majority of flying there is now done by low cost airlines as opposed to regionals) and in Asia too.
04-27-2011, 06:07 AM
#54
patience
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,068
Originally Posted by 3stripes
As much as it pains me to say it I think we're heading towards a scenario where the majors will shrink even further while regionals and low cost carriers grow and take over the vast majority of domestic flying. The days of the 50 seat regional jet are numbered, but as a previous poster pointed out, the likes of Bombardier, Embraer, Mitsubishi etc are all driving growth in the 70-120 seat jet market.
I firmly believe that in the near future the majors will retrench to concentrating mainly on long haul, international flying with a few transcon services thrown in for good measure. Scope clauses will either become a thing of the past, will be circumnavigated or just ignored and the regionals will take on more capacity on bigger aircraft. We'll never see a 737 or A320 in the regionals, but why would we need to when we have aircraft such as the EMB 195? Domestic flights will mainly be operated by the regionals (still under the brands of the majors). The regionals offer the flexibility that the majors want in the domestic market and take away a lot of the dirty work involved.
In between the majors and the regionals, airlines such as Virgin America, JetBlue etc will continue to do what they do, offering transcon flights, and limited international such as Mexico and the Caribbean.
The regionals will probably move to aircraft such as the Q400 for their 70 seat or less markets while utilising bigger jets such as the MRJ, C-Series or EMB170/190 for their bigger markets.
Sadly, this is just the way it's going these days. Not just here in the US, but also in Europe and Asia. The advent of low fares airlines and in turn the passengers expectation of a $89 transcon one way fare means that the majors have become outdated in their domestic markets with too high a cost base that means they can not directly compete with carriers with a lower cost base such as Southwest, JetBlue etc. By outsourcing their loss making domestic flying to the regionals, the majors can once again return to profitability.
Unfortunately the outcome of all of this will mean less of us going to the majors, worse terms and conditions and the prospect of being a career regional airline pilot. In reality we won't be flying the old definition of a 'regional' flight though. We'll be doing plenty of flights in excess of 2 hours, flying from hub to hub in addition to our current sleepy backwater, small town airport to hub flying. It's already happening, why did I fly on a CRJ from DTW to JFK last month, or from ORD to EWR on an E170 the month before?
This is the reality that we face, not just here in the US, but in Europe (although the majority of flying there is now done by low cost airlines as opposed to regionals) and in Asia too.
I firmly believe that in the near future the majors will retrench to concentrating mainly on long haul, international flying with a few transcon services thrown in for good measure. Scope clauses will either become a thing of the past, will be circumnavigated or just ignored and the regionals will take on more capacity on bigger aircraft. We'll never see a 737 or A320 in the regionals, but why would we need to when we have aircraft such as the EMB 195? Domestic flights will mainly be operated by the regionals (still under the brands of the majors). The regionals offer the flexibility that the majors want in the domestic market and take away a lot of the dirty work involved.
In between the majors and the regionals, airlines such as Virgin America, JetBlue etc will continue to do what they do, offering transcon flights, and limited international such as Mexico and the Caribbean.
The regionals will probably move to aircraft such as the Q400 for their 70 seat or less markets while utilising bigger jets such as the MRJ, C-Series or EMB170/190 for their bigger markets.
Sadly, this is just the way it's going these days. Not just here in the US, but also in Europe and Asia. The advent of low fares airlines and in turn the passengers expectation of a $89 transcon one way fare means that the majors have become outdated in their domestic markets with too high a cost base that means they can not directly compete with carriers with a lower cost base such as Southwest, JetBlue etc. By outsourcing their loss making domestic flying to the regionals, the majors can once again return to profitability.
Unfortunately the outcome of all of this will mean less of us going to the majors, worse terms and conditions and the prospect of being a career regional airline pilot. In reality we won't be flying the old definition of a 'regional' flight though. We'll be doing plenty of flights in excess of 2 hours, flying from hub to hub in addition to our current sleepy backwater, small town airport to hub flying. It's already happening, why did I fly on a CRJ from DTW to JFK last month, or from ORD to EWR on an E170 the month before?
This is the reality that we face, not just here in the US, but in Europe (although the majority of flying there is now done by low cost airlines as opposed to regionals) and in Asia too.
Your theory on the future of the airlines seems right, but you are basically pointing out that scope is not a problem. I am not too familiar with scope, but will major airline pilots such as United, delta, and american just let scope fade away over time, and or is it really economical for airlines to violate scope and just pay the fines?
04-27-2011, 06:23 AM
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Position: EMB145 FO
Posts: 273
Originally Posted by N5467C
Your theory on the future of the airlines seems right, but you are basically pointing out that scope is not a problem. I am not too familiar with scope, but will major airline pilots such as United, delta, and american just let scope fade away over time, and or is it really economical for airlines to violate scope and just pay the fines?
Don't be fooled into thinking that it's us who hold the cards here, it's very much in the hands of the airlines. If you refuse to do a job, someone else will always come in and do it for less.
04-27-2011, 06:26 AM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: Self employed
Posts: 3,048
Originally Posted by 3stripes
They'll claim that they're putting more jobs at risks by not outsourcing their flying than they are by keeping it in house, or something along those lines.
Even a tiny pay raise can be exchanged for farming out the flying. There will be plenty of talk, even quite animated and loud, that scope will not be relaxed (even further than has been allowed already).
Talk vs money.
Do the math.
04-27-2011, 06:30 AM
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: Self employed
Posts: 3,048
Originally Posted by Three Green
If we do not raise our debt ceiling, this is a moot point as in what airline industry.
What exactly are you talking about? If this is politics, it will be deleted.
04-27-2011, 07:04 AM
#59
patience
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,068
Originally Posted by TonyWilliams
Even a tiny pay raise can be exchanged for farming out the flying. There will be plenty of talk, even quite animated and loud, that scope will not be relaxed (even further than has been allowed already).
Talk vs money.
Do the math.
Talk vs money.
Do the math.
04-27-2011, 07:10 AM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 620
Originally Posted by 3stripes
I seriously think that the majors don't see this as an insurmountable problem. There have always been ways round scope clauses for the majors. They'll claim that they're putting more jobs at risks by not outsourcing their flying than they are by keeping it in house, or something along those lines. At the end of the day, we are becoming a more and more self centered and selfish society, the majors will try to use that fact to convince it's pilot groups that the unions don't have their best interests at heart and then before you know it, we'll all be flying EMB 170s for $23 an hour!
Don't be fooled into thinking that it's us who hold the cards here, it's very much in the hands of the airlines. If you refuse to do a job, someone else will always come in and do it for less.
Don't be fooled into thinking that it's us who hold the cards here, it's very much in the hands of the airlines. If you refuse to do a job, someone else will always come in and do it for less.
The Southwest & Jetblue & airlines like those will continue to chip away at the market shares of all other airlines 1 day at a time. These airlines don't care that if everyone calls them LOW COST etc etc. Their model may be based upon low cost, but their service is 10 times better any United, Delta or AA flight.
The southwest's & Jetblue's are here to stay & will continue to Grow.......
I am not attempting to start a "my airline versus is better than your airline" war but for a momemt, just take a step back & think what a passenger, your source of revenue, thinks about the carrier he or she is flying.....
"Where or which airline do I get a better service, quality & fare advantage or a combination of all the above"
Guess what the answer is.........
So, the Legacy airlines soon, will have no choice but be forced to move focus to international flying as their major source of revenue.... And there also, it is fierce competition....
Has anyone travelled across the globe on AMERICAN AIRLINES or continental as a passenger then compares with QATAR or SINGAPORE OR EMIRATES & then .....
One has to pay for his 2nd beer or drink on a 14-15 hour flight on any Legacy american airlines......
Now remember, anyone who can buy a $1500 - $2000 ticket can also pay another $10 for a drink, but remember, we are comparing as a passenger who will leave with a bad taste & never return.......
Are our Legacy airlines really a LEGACY or are they ready to become HISTORY, just like PANAM..........
Legacy Airlines lack the vision, heavy with beauraucracy, are laden heavily with "baggage" & a lots of monkeys on their back, blindfolded by their glorious past & on a ILS CAT 3C approach to a uncontrolled, unlighted runway.....
When every airline in this country was losing money, Filing BK's, Southwest & FEDEX ( CARGO) were only two companies who made & reported profit..... Fedex is not our area, so for us southwest is important & will continue to be... Our Heavy weight majors like United DELTA & AA should learn a thing or 2 here....... BUt they are so blinded, that they won't pay attention.......
That is why Southwest who is already a major player will be the leader in the domestic slowly in the years come & closely followed by Jetblue... Others new players will continue to emerge in the domestic sector.......
It is a global trend. The same is happening in ASIA & INDIA.
Legacy Carriers Like Air INDIA are bleeding & losing money, pretty much because of the same reasons like United & Delta & at the expense of new carriers, who offer a better combination of value & service & fares.
And NO, I don't work for southwest but would love to do so......
Last edited by bcpilot; 04-27-2011 at 07:27 AM.
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