I hate to say it but you're right. Unless the economy collapses even more dramatically than last time there are not going to be enough part 91/135 ATP's to keep the regionals in business once mainline hiring starts...even if there were, many of them would not work for regional wages!

 

Actually, I've heard quite a bit of talk about raising the retirement age to 70. And most of that talk is coming from -- surprise! -- the over-60 pilots.

Apparently, five more years (at your expense) isn't enough.

Or, as someone so succinctly described this attitude: "I got mine... Now I want yours."

The good news is, I believe the Age 65 rule is an ICAO standard; so the ATA just can't call up the FAA and say, "Change it."

 

You folks do realize that the U.S. is one of the nations that is an ICAO member, right?

http://www.pegasusrotorcraft.com/sup...mberStates.pdf

 

People keep assuming that the only option the major airlines have when/if this huge pilot shortage hits is to suck everyone out of the regionals and either end the regionals or seriously change the current system. There is another, much more dangerous option out there, however, which entails continuing to shrink the majors while expanding the domestic flying that regionals do. That is managements wet dream right there - lots of C-series and E-195's flying for wages that are dirt. It's not a foregone conclusion, but it's one that we all need to keep a lookout for and hope that all the majors at a minimum hold the line on their scope, if not tighten it even further.

 

This is the key to everything right here. They can only do what we let them do. The entire bottom feeding regional industry can be taken care of in the next 10 years if we collectively as pilots step up to the plate, work together and do not budge on scope one inch. Establish an industry standard of 50 seats or less, with a maximum radius of 200 miles (straight line distance) en-route with populations under 200,000 people in a 50 mile radius of the airport being served. That would pretty much do it. Also close the door on multiple certificates under one holdings company. This will prevent regional whipsaws which further lowers pay and QOL. If we take away the ability to screw each other we'll all be happier.

 

Even under a scenario in which the regionals take over the 90-120 seat market in the U.S. the majors will still need to hire to replace retiring pilots, although at a reduced rate. If pilots are flowing out of the system faster than they are coming in, and all that is happening is a shuffling of flying rather than a reduction, then there will be a shortage. Although many doubt a shortage, the fact that the regionals are currently having issues attracting qualified applicants after a two+ year dry spell suggests that a serious shortage is looming. The only question is just how severe it will be.

My guess is we will see upward pressure on wages in the years to come. It will never go back to what it was in the late '90s. The pendulum swung too far, and then it swung too far in the other extreme. It is starting to swing back.

There are many challenges ahead, and we are not out of the woods yet. Hardly, with oil nearing $110/barrel. But it is going to be a remarkably different industry in just the next 5 years, and 10 years from now it may be hardly recognizable compared to today.

 

If United is just able to keep the tighter of the two scope clauses things will be good. Then maybe Delta can take back some flying. If United fails with the scope battle most of us will probably be Regional lifers as the Majors continue to shrink. Just my opinion.

 

I agree with rick, come on guys, have you not seen the way the average 70 year old drives?? I'm not saying all, but most. I'd rather be in the back of the regional with the 20 something Captain than the back of the 75 with the 70 year old flying.... maybe its just me?

 

They drive about the same as a 20-something that is phoning or texting.

 

God I don't get it. Why do these guys wanna fly until they're dead? Go fish or buy that boat you always wanted or something. Why in God's name would you want to fly until your 70? I for sure won't be one of those. Want to actually enjoy life for a while before I kick the bucket. Go away for Christ sake and get out of our seats. You had your time, now its our turn.