2014-2015 outlook
#31
I don't think 1500 rule will hold. Majors haven't even announce hiring and regional are starting to run thin on applicants. What will happen when majors start pulling pilots from the regional level? Delta will be on a steady pace of 500 new hires a year going forward along with US Air and others. At the pace of the major's projected numbers I feel you will see a shortage at the regional level. No way 1500 will hold up. If you think this spring was crazy you haven't see nothing yet.
#32
Apparently, five more years (at your expense) isn't enough.
Or, as someone so succinctly described this attitude: "I got mine... Now I want yours."
The good news is, I believe the Age 65 rule is an ICAO standard; so the ATA just can't call up the FAA and say, "Change it."
#33
You folks do realize that the U.S. is one of the nations that is an ICAO member, right?
http://www.pegasusrotorcraft.com/sup...mberStates.pdf
http://www.pegasusrotorcraft.com/sup...mberStates.pdf
#34
Roll’n Thunder
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Position: Pilot
Posts: 3,544
People keep assuming that the only option the major airlines have when/if this huge pilot shortage hits is to suck everyone out of the regionals and either end the regionals or seriously change the current system. There is another, much more dangerous option out there, however, which entails continuing to shrink the majors while expanding the domestic flying that regionals do. That is managements wet dream right there - lots of C-series and E-195's flying for wages that are dirt. It's not a foregone conclusion, but it's one that we all need to keep a lookout for and hope that all the majors at a minimum hold the line on their scope, if not tighten it even further.
#35
People keep assuming that the only option the major airlines have when/if this huge pilot shortage hits is to suck everyone out of the regionals and either end the regionals or seriously change the current system. There is another, much more dangerous option out there, however, which entails continuing to shrink the majors while expanding the domestic flying that regionals do. That is managements wet dream right there - lots of C-series and E-195's flying for wages that are dirt. It's not a foregone conclusion, but it's one that we all need to keep a lookout for and hope that all the majors at a minimum hold the line on their scope, if not tighten it even further.
#36
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2009
Position: CRJ-200 FO
Posts: 44
Even under a scenario in which the regionals take over the 90-120 seat market in the U.S. the majors will still need to hire to replace retiring pilots, although at a reduced rate. If pilots are flowing out of the system faster than they are coming in, and all that is happening is a shuffling of flying rather than a reduction, then there will be a shortage. Although many doubt a shortage, the fact that the regionals are currently having issues attracting qualified applicants after a two+ year dry spell suggests that a serious shortage is looming. The only question is just how severe it will be.
My guess is we will see upward pressure on wages in the years to come. It will never go back to what it was in the late '90s. The pendulum swung too far, and then it swung too far in the other extreme. It is starting to swing back.
There are many challenges ahead, and we are not out of the woods yet. Hardly, with oil nearing $110/barrel. But it is going to be a remarkably different industry in just the next 5 years, and 10 years from now it may be hardly recognizable compared to today.
My guess is we will see upward pressure on wages in the years to come. It will never go back to what it was in the late '90s. The pendulum swung too far, and then it swung too far in the other extreme. It is starting to swing back.
There are many challenges ahead, and we are not out of the woods yet. Hardly, with oil nearing $110/barrel. But it is going to be a remarkably different industry in just the next 5 years, and 10 years from now it may be hardly recognizable compared to today.
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 691
People keep assuming that the only option the major airlines have when/if this huge pilot shortage hits is to suck everyone out of the regionals and either end the regionals or seriously change the current system. There is another, much more dangerous option out there, however, which entails continuing to shrink the majors while expanding the domestic flying that regionals do. That is managements wet dream right there - lots of C-series and E-195's flying for wages that are dirt. It's not a foregone conclusion, but it's one that we all need to keep a lookout for and hope that all the majors at a minimum hold the line on their scope, if not tighten it even further.
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Position: Courtroom
Posts: 177
Not me. Since ICAO was already doing it, it was a forgone conclusion. I'm actually OK with 65. Unless you want to get into VERY complex, invasive, and expensive medical/cognitive testing then you have to draw an arbitrary line somewhere. I think 60 is a little to low and 70 is too high.
#39
I agree with rick, come on guys, have you not seen the way the average 70 year old drives?? I'm not saying all, but most. I'd rather be in the back of the regional with the 20 something Captain than the back of the 75 with the 70 year old flying.... maybe its just me?
#40
Actually, I've heard quite a bit of talk about raising the retirement age to 70. And most of that talk is coming from -- surprise! -- the over-60 pilots.
Apparently, five more years (at your expense) isn't enough.
Or, as someone so succinctly described this attitude: "I got mine... Now I want yours."
The good news is, I believe the Age 65 rule is an ICAO standard; so the ATA just can't call up the FAA and say, "Change it."
Apparently, five more years (at your expense) isn't enough.
Or, as someone so succinctly described this attitude: "I got mine... Now I want yours."
The good news is, I believe the Age 65 rule is an ICAO standard; so the ATA just can't call up the FAA and say, "Change it."
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