Which Regionals are not going to last
04-08-2012 | 05:13 PM
#21
Banned
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I believe the era of the Regional business model has come to an end. It made sense when fuel was cheap, pilots were constantly cycling through keeping costs low and you could send a Dash or CRJ to a small city five times a day becuase the plane cost about $20 a seat. Since fuel is through the roof and especially since 9/11, more people are looking to make a career out of the regionals and thus think the pay should be equivalent the the legacy carriers. Thats not how a Regional works. The model is based on an endless flow of cheap labor and cheap fuel. I think it is time for the Majors to bring the flying back in house, get rid of anything below 76 seats and probably reduce flights to the smaller markets.
I knew what I was getting myself into when I joined a Regional. I knew the pay and the work rules suck, but it was never meant to be my endgame. So, I just bide my time and hope the hiring floodgates open soon. Just my .02.
I knew what I was getting myself into when I joined a Regional. I knew the pay and the work rules suck, but it was never meant to be my endgame. So, I just bide my time and hope the hiring floodgates open soon. Just my .02.
Regional carriers realize that there won't be much attrition from the top at their operations due to the very fact they'll be flying an increasing percentage of former domestic mainline ops going forward. Thus, they'll all end up having an "Eagle dilemma" as the next few years go on. Thus, more wil declare BK and use that process to use an industry-wide methodology of ratcheting pilot rates to the lowest competitors annually.
In effect, it will ensure their costs go downward every year as inflation and healthcare rise. My advice is to watch Eagle and then note how the remainder of the regionals match their model.
Consider it a "national whipsaw" model that for intents and purposes sentences regional pilots to increasingly substandard compensation in perpetuity.
04-08-2012 | 06:14 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2010
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From: Doing what you do, for less.
Don't mean to hijack and excuse the post from a non airline guy but there's something that I have wondered and maybe stryker might like taking it in this direction more. Where do you all see the regional industry in years to come? I remember reading this article not too long ago on how the regional business model is not sustainable.
It makes sense. Sometimes being a contract company can be a fruitful success in certain sectors. I think this is mainly true when there is not too much competition and/or there's a variety of services or goods that can be provided within that industry. Look at military contractors, there's food, uniforms, transportation, weapons etc. But with the regional airlines there's one service and no short supply of investment groups ready to throw some money at an airline.
Seems to me that with time the number of regionals will reduce through bankruptcy's, acquisitions, and mergers. And I think the remaining carriers will have to work harder at retaining pilots and the age of the regionals being a stepping stone will be gone. I really don't see as many people getting into this career considering the cost, ability to secure loans, and atp rule.
But I could be wrong and everything remains more or less the same.
It makes sense. Sometimes being a contract company can be a fruitful success in certain sectors. I think this is mainly true when there is not too much competition and/or there's a variety of services or goods that can be provided within that industry. Look at military contractors, there's food, uniforms, transportation, weapons etc. But with the regional airlines there's one service and no short supply of investment groups ready to throw some money at an airline.
Seems to me that with time the number of regionals will reduce through bankruptcy's, acquisitions, and mergers. And I think the remaining carriers will have to work harder at retaining pilots and the age of the regionals being a stepping stone will be gone. I really don't see as many people getting into this career considering the cost, ability to secure loans, and atp rule.
But I could be wrong and everything remains more or less the same.
Cheap pilots +
Overhead for operating an airline +
Profit for airline
Is cheaper than flying them at mainline. With the lack of new pilots and the 1500 hour rule causing a problem in the supply curve and the FTDT regs causing a problem in the demand curve, hopefully one day regional airlines will cost themselves out of existance and it will become once again cheaper to do it at mainline.
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