Originally Posted by SmitteyB (Post 1254460)

9) Chautauqua

-------------------

Delta isn't far behind.

Pinnacle Company 1, exclusive DAL
Skywest Company 2
ExpressJet Company 2
GoJet Company 3
Compass Company 3
Shuttle America Company 4
Chautauqua Company 4
Silver Do they?

Originally Posted by eaglefly (Post 1254462)

As what pointed out (a wierd sentance........:rolleyes:), my number was a bit high as I was estimating the number of current combined U and AA feeders. My point was regarding the combining of AA/U, not stand alone AA. In that case, that will leave too many feeders and consolidation and elimination will occur as part of streamling feeders. I expect Eagle to still be a player, but smaller then present. Unfortunately, the economic pressures on regionals will continue if not increase due to the 3 legacies adopting or strengthening their whipsaw models of several feeders under staggared contracts that must periodically rebid for their flying and the future AA will be more aggressive then the others if history is any lesson. This reality will only put less leverage in the pockets of regional pilots and thus the compensation packages including minimal staffing and poor scheduling will intensify. If AA stands alone (the least likely result of this BK fiasco), then Eagle will indeed see at least one and likely 2 others come in for part of that flying. The premise Eagle can muscle others aside for future contracts flying for DAL or UAL is uncertain, but IMO carriers already entrenched at those networks are more likely to remain provided they captitulate to the economic demands of their daddy legacies and that doesn't bode well for Eagle future industry prostitution efforts.

The future AA (merged with U) will likely allow for 75% of its domestic narrow-body fleet ops to be provided by Catagory A and B operators and that is likely to be approximatley 650 or so aircraft, which is about what is currently being operated accross the board for both carriers. The major change will be the proportionate increase in larger RJ's up to the E-175/CRJ-900 size which would be perhaps 300 aircraft and another 350 smaller RJ's and some turboprops, most of which would be E-170, CRJ-700 or Q400 types. Eagle will play a part, but a smaller part. 200 aircraft for Eagle would be almost 1/3 of the total ops and that would likely mean 3 regionals, if all of similar size, but my guess is 4-5 regionals (one of which may be all turboprop), so 150-175 aircraft for the former Eagle is not an unreasonable assumption. Of course, this would require at least 5 years for transition and during that period the combined mainline operation which includes operating catagory C aircraft like the E-190 and CRJ-1000 will be mostly a replacement scenario unless aircraft deliveries for AA slated as replacement aircraft over the next 5 years or so (2018) are switched to expansion which would mean most of the S80's will be pressed for another 5 years. Under that possibility, the "expansion" aircraft due AA post 2018 would become replacement. This MAY be the "sneaky" part of the future plan for AA/U, i.e., the reversal of "replacement" and "expansion" aircraft to allow rapid expansion of the new combined merged carrier to overtake the others rapidly AFTER the merger is consummated and if that occurs then your assumptions of significant (but not huge) "shakeout of movement" would indeed likely occur, but I digress.......

Should the above possibility not occur, then expect no real increase in mainline size and likely even contraction as the larger RJ's take more of the mainline pie and thus considering that retirements at most of the mainline carriers between now and 2018 are NOT that high (they increase dramatically after about 2020) and the increased pressure for many to fly until they drop or age 67/70 arrives, which ever is sooner will mean another period of stagnation and in the AA case, transition for the pilots who fly for its feeders. Think of it as shuffling of the deck chairs with perhaps 90% of the chairs needed. Thus the 1000 or more Eagle pilots 'furloughed", might actually be simply trnasitioned to another carrier picking up that feed with new deliveries replacing Eagle's E-135/140/145's. In fact, Parker has already mentioned that specifically. If you get whacked rick, it may mean you spend little or no time on furlough, but may start as a new hire at another AA feeder.......unless of course, greener pastures beckon. The "transition" for Eagle will occur BEFORE that "5-8 year good chucnk of retirements" which actually aren't really that good until AFTER that 5-8 year window. 67 or 70 will throw another 2-5 years of delay there as another possibility.

Still several paths available, but with the fresh NDA between AA and U, it seems more clear these two are eventually going to be canoodling. Since they both are now going to be privy to each others plans going forward, if they do not consummate their courtship, it's going to leave both in an akward position going forward from a competitive standpoint, no ?

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254466)

If they do not marry up, I think it leaves USAIR in a much worst position than AA. Usair has no wide bodies in the big picture, I think less than 15? AA has near that many 767-200s. USAIR NEEDS AA, I am not sure AA needs Usair. I am no Harvard grad, with a JD in business, but it seems to me AA could raise the capital for a Jetblue or Frontier, to provide them with a growth spurt via competition elimination, as well as ripe them up for the Airbus's. Buying USAIR is not much different than buying Southwest in all reality.

I think Alaska is the PERFECT match for AA, and I would not be surprised if AMR follows the United model, and gets out of BK and then guts the place to become ripe for the RIGHT buy out (Alaska). This is not exactly like CAL taking over UAL but it is similar (minus the large airplane order by AA). Alaska has a low debt ratio, and could easily raise the capital if AA was a proper suitor. I guess time will tell. I also think Jetblue is not a bad unit to the mix. I think Jetblue is a much better option than Frontier, however anyone with Airbus's seems to be needed going forward.

Just my opinion but I think the USAIR deal sucks for AA. Another TWA, in many ways. I just think better options are out there. USair is 90% a North America airline, with airplanes that are fairly dated (older 737s, and the PDT Dashs). The hubs are not that great, even CLT is a market losing its appeal. Not to mention the possible labor disaster. Once the dust settles and its time to complete the marriage, I think people will be realizing the mess they got in to, and wanting an annulment, like waking up married to a stripper after a drunk night in vegas.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254466)

If they do not marry up, I think it leaves USAIR in a much worst position than AA. Usair has no wide bodies in the big picture, I think less than 15? AA has near that many 767-200s. USAIR NEEDS AA, I am not sure AA needs Usair. I am no Harvard grad, with a JD in business, but it seems to me AA could raise the capital for a Jetblue or Frontier, to provide them with a growth spurt via competition elimination, as well as ripe them up for the Airbus's. Buying USAIR is not much different than buying Southwest in all reality.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254466)

I think Alaska is the PERFECT match for AA, and I would not be surprised if AMR follows the United model, and gets out of BK and then guts the place to become ripe for the RIGHT buy out (Alaska). This is not exactly like CAL taking over UAL but it is similar (minus the large airplane order by AA). Alaska has a low debt ratio, and could easily raise the capital if AA was a proper suitor. I guess time will tell. I also think Jetblue is not a bad unit to the mix. I think Jetblue is a much better option than Frontier, however anyone with Airbus's seems to be needed going forward.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254466)

Just my opinion but I think the USAIR deal sucks for AA. Another TWA, in many ways. I just think better options are out there. USair is 90% a North America airline, with airplanes that are fairly dated (older 737s, and the PDT Dashs). The hubs are not that great, even CLT is a market losing its appeal.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254465)

Skywest and EXJT are 2 lists for now, but still one company.

Originally Posted by What (Post 1254469)

All Frontier has to offer is an Airbus program and AA is well on their way on the AA program, Frontier has gone down to shuttling people in and out of DEN with their low prices, do you think AA will want to enter DEN and compete with Southwest and United?

We know how AMR is with the books and their finances, what makes one think that they will disclose all of their "secrets". This could very well be just a posturing move, AMR was quoted yesterday as saying that they have enter into NDA with others but won't comment on who at this time. Much going on behind the scenes that we don't know about... Just follow the money.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254627)

doesnt the scope suck in the TA between AA and USAIR???

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1254627)

doesnt the scope suck in the TA between AA and USAIR???