The mins used to be about 3500 Total Time and 1000 PIC turbine, with -135 or -121 time preferred.

cliff
MIA

Gas used to be .99/cents a gallon, and CFIs flew for free to build time. Guys actually made it from flight school to a major in ten years or less. Student loans actually existed. This use to be a stepping stone, not 50% of domestic flying and an outsourcing mecca for major airlines. Being an airline pilot, even with a high school degree, USE to be a GREAT return on your investment. Now guys are stuck washing around the RJ industry as FOs and furloughed multiple times, with $100,000 in loans. AWFUL return on the investment.

Not being a pecker just pointing out what changed.

....and it only will get worse, as like or not the large RJ's are here to stay and will be the final stop for a large percentage of current regional pilots. Every 4 years or so, most pilot groups will have to "reset" their compensation or risk losing their paychecks. Factor in a stagnant hourly rate, large increases in health care costs and inflation and the average regional pilot's actual earning power will decrese significantly as they progress in the regional industry with the exception of their first captain upgrade.

Your actual earning power will peak as a newly minted RJ captain and decrease thereafter. First slowly as your hourly rate increases lag health care/inflation and then more quickly should you either lose your seat due to faliure to accept a reset or the losses of the reset itself. It will be a catch-22 situation with no remedy.

Eh maybe, this is where I disagree with you, and most of my Dads friends say otherwise as well. I think the lack of new applicants is going to make retention a huge issue for most RJ airlines. Add into that many people will start going to the majors here shortly, already looking at 1000 next year between United Delta and Usair pending no merger. I realize the real retirement numbers dont start for another 3-5 years, however most guys I know at LUAL are saying 62.5 is going to be the magic number. The larger RJs will replace the smaller ones, its just the ever changing business model of the airline and this country as an entity. The scary idea to me is more start ups like gojets to undercut already existing work groups, at a holding company. Luckily Gojet HAS faced hiring issues compared to places like Skywest, and I hope that only gets worst. Gojet is hiring from a different pool than Eagle and Skywest did last round. Gojet is sharing the great lakes and silver pool.

Well, we'll have to disagree. For the record, since coming to a legacy, I find the senior captains to be the least clued in to what's happening in the industry. I think many of the younger regional pilots are more in tune as they pay attention being at the beginning of their journey instead of coasting at the end.

The push for age 65 wasn't because most pilots only wanted to work to 62. Don't forget that the legacies can be choosy and it's been a decade since military pilots had a shot at any of them. Your assumption of a measly 1000 pilots might only nick a few hundred from all the regionals, which is nothing. It's going to take a lot more then that for a sustained period of time to show up in real movement and many regional pilots will be well into their 40's and 50's in 5-7 years.

Any movement is good though, because it opens things up in different places, which causes people to shuffle around. Say United hires 10, 2 are RJ captains, 2 part 135 and 1 is Corporate 91 and 5 Military. That opens 2 RJ fo spots 2 135 spots and 1 corporate spot. Not all of these will be from the entry level, some guys will go from 135 to RJ fo,some from 135 to corporate some from corporate etc. I know im stating the obv, but people shuffle during upward mobility periods.

Your dad being UAL should give you a leg up there, but they'll be stiff competition. Even back in the heyday of the 90's when most carriers (6-10) were hiring 500-1000/year, applicants had a 1-10/20 chance simply due to the number of applicants vs. available positions.

You can be sure it will be many years before that level is attained again. There will only be 3 legacies and as many LCC's in the future and since not only the majority of expansion NOT occurring at these carriers, but regioanls (at least until the regional new-hire pilot crisis) it will be much slower. In fact, many of these legacies will likely be contracting at the same time, exacerbating the situation.

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Agreed. Who know what could happen. Ticket prices go up and some how fuel cost come down (more efficient planes and other sources of power), and the economy comes back around, the govt might break up the airlines. Too many maybes to know. In a good economy with lower fuel cost, with 6 major airlines, many were turning out 2+ billion per year in profit.

Back on topic though, it does seem odd that Eagle at least SEEMS to be gearing up for another round of hiring. Maybe we have become so large, that shrinking us to death is not the most economic option.

Senior mainline guys are:

A: out of touch with/don't care about the grave issues/concerns junior mainline and regional guys are staring down the barrel of.

B: the very gentlemen who sold out scope and allowed this C-scale system in order to pad their extra innings thus killing this profession.

Instead of asking your daddy and his friends for their insight, I'd be asking them why they didn't mind the store for you and yours as well as it was taken care of for them.

You assume they (him and his friends) voted in favor of this stuff. Many of the scope give up were forced in Ch11.