Over on airliners net they are convinced that they will fix the problem by having single pilot airliners within the next 5-7 years.

Don't bother telling them they are wrong. They are RIGHT, dangit.

Airliners.net eh?

http://www.socialpaws.com/wp-content....-Im-stuck.png

You might see some of that, but it won't be a crisis. People forget the industry experienced a prologed hiring boom for several consecutive years, at both the mainline and regional levels, with most regional mins at a hard "12 and 2" non negotiable and competitive mins significantly higher than that for most of the boom.

If we face a similar or greater prolonged hiring situation, there will be a need for civilian instructors no matter what. And those instructors will be busy, training other students and instructors. Ab initio does nothing to change or mitigate that. Even if 1500 hours is bargained down to 700 or 800, that only buys them a few months relief from the pipeline, and canabalizes instructors off the top even faster, significantly lowering the average dual given for each instructor taken, who then has to be replaced.

There are more than enough higher time pilots out of work (or just out of flying work) that can come back (yes, some won't, but there is a large enough quantity of them to soften the blow for the transition) and by the time that is absorbed there will be enough demand that just about any CFI anywhere can get 100 hours or so a month if they want it.

And if they are still short on the recruitment end, they will have to give signing bonuses, higher first year pay, hotels through all training and maybe even *gasp* better contracts all around. But a true crisis this is not.

gloopy. gets. it.


You da man!

Its funny, mainline pilots say regional guys are inexperienced but when their child hits 1500hrs they get them onboard with mainline. But yet the CRJ CA of 4 yrs is not that qualified to fly people around. But the guys child at 1500 is capable of flying a 767

I think that's life in general people, as Forest Gump said "S^&T Happens"... Doesn't matter if it's at mother Delta, in the Air Force, or any other civilian work environment, it isn't always what you know, it is who you know, so maybe instead of working nonstop to get all those hours maybe start networking, technique only I guess? Who knows but that is life.

Mongo

...and over on A.net, it's solely the fault of the pilots and their GREEDY contracts for driving each company into Bankruptcy. Why can't you just face the fact that you have the best job in the world and just work for free??? I'm Joe Traveler, and I am entitled to cross country flights for $99 each way, damn it!!!;)

That is a good point. A good hiring boom at mainline would probably be enough of a Siren's song to lure people into the regionals and replenish their ranks once again...

A lot of people have gotten wise to the industry, and rightfully so. Why would someone want to go take out a mortgage to work at the regionals? What ab initio would do is ensure a steady supply at the regional level. Want to fly for Delta someday? Let Delta pay for your training, and you just have to sign a contract stating that you'll work at a DCI Carrier for the next 12 years. Or some derivation thereof.

Don't forget the number of pilots working at all the 2nd tier operators (Spirit, Virgin, Kalitta, Polar, etc...) that already have their ppwk in at DAL, SWA, FedEx, et al.

That might happen. But looking back to the last big hiring boom we didn't really see any of that. The closest thing was the CMR/DCI academy. But in any case, current and future pilots were lining up in droves, by cash or credit, for richer or for poorer, to slave away at dirt bag regionals for 16$/hr, PFT, not even being an employee and starting the first year pay clock until after all training, no work rules and crappy equipment, in many cases without APU's or even lavs.

But they did it to get flight time, to one day get to the "Paris, First Class, International" dream. Legacy contracts aren't as good as they were back then of course, but they are getting better than the 9-11 BK floor and coupled with advancement from significant attrition it will once again become a fairly powerful recruiting force for future pilots. And the regional level may be smaller but its still pretty big, and these days the worst jobs in the industry might still suck, but they'll be in an all glass jet with good AC, a lav or two, no PFT, employee from day 1 and even in some cases signing bonuses and paid hotels, etc.

Sulley was right on when he said there won't be a shortage of pilots. Only a shortage of pilots willing to accept employment at or below a certain point. A point we're already well above the last hiring boom in many ways. Worst case they will have to sweeten the pot a little bit for regional new hires. But honestly, probably not that much. Make first year pay in the 30's and up from there with fairly "quick" upgrades (from 2-5 years in many cases...or just hire senior FO's directly to the majors more often) and people will be lining up around the block. No ab initio required.

Good point. Of course they too will need to be replaced. But their growth is (hopefully) petering out and soon, hopefully, they will begin to shrink as well. Partly to participate in further "capacity dicipline" as necessary, and partly because they aren't really that "LC" anymore. More like LRC (low revenue carriers).

Stacy's mom invented suck-squeeze-bang-blow. Maybe you're related?

http://ts2.mm.bing.net/th?id=I.46211...h=150&c=7&rs=1

On the other hand...

Air France Flight 296 | Airbus A320 Crash - YouTube

2nd tier...funny! How about the FDx pilots with their stuff in at DAL and vice versa?. As for the pilots here at the 2nd tier wishing to leave, I say "adios". This has been the deal my entire 25 years. I remember back when the guys at the 2nd tier SWA told the boys at the (then) Majors to pound sand. And as they say boys and girls " the rest is history"...

While you do have a vaild point that there are pilots at mainline carriers applying to other mainline carriers (and there always will be), it's primarily the junior guys who can risk the move without losing much. Probably not going to be as many guys at DAL/FedEx applying to Spirit/Frontier...
Also keep in mind that while SWA's pay is industry leading today, it was industry lagging pre-9/11.

Only if you fly a 737....

I have no idea what you're talking about, so here's a cat playing death metal:

LMAO!!!!!!!!

Damn...working the foot pedals and everything!

Originally Posted by ftrooppilot http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/im...s/viewpost.gif (before the TA was published)
. . . . . . . . . . . . .

I will go out (way out) on a limb and predict:

1. The pinnacle bankruptcy preceding will be settled quickly with minor impact on pilot pay and benefits. Obviously furloughs have a major impact on some however "the Bridge Agreement provides for furlough benefits packages that include pay, health care, passes, and an ATP for those with the requisite number of hours."

2. At some point the transfer of pinnacle crj900s to express jet will be halted. Depends upon the TA vote.

3. Pinnacle will become an all crj900 company and will receive additional 900s from the delta purchase. I interpret 81 as a minimum. " our airline will consist of at least 81 CRJ 900 aircraft."

4. Delta will establish a flow through program with pinnacle. "The Bridge Agreement also provides all Pinnacle pilots on the ISL with a career path to Delta."

5. Pinnacle will be moved to MSP.

I'm close to batting three out of five but realize a rejection Vote could change everything.

Executives and shareholders have too much to lose if the pilots vote NO.

Everyone, the scare tactics are working. It's time to draw a hard line in the sand.

Do you really think that $80/hour for a captain and $40/hour for an FO really changes the bottom line that much when operating costs on average are around $3500/hour!

I've seen mentioned on here and a few other web boards about Pinnacle becoming a Delta wholly owned and/or receiving the benefits of a wholly owned after the "Yes" vote.

Where in the TA/SSP language does it say this? Or is this just something being said in reference to the amounts of money Delta is dumping into this place?

The more I look at #2 (even if they have been delivered) the more I believe Pinnacle will get more then 100+ 900s.

A mixed fleet is a "mixed bag" with high potential for conflict. Seniority, training, bidding, basing, fences (if any), maintenance, majors competing for regional support, etc. Now throw in impending fleet reduction. As best as I can determine that SkyWest / Express Jet has over 500 aircraft that are 50 seats or less. They operate those airplanes for multiple majors who at any time can say they are old, uncomfortable, inefficient and do not represent our brand. Isn't that what Delta is doing with the 200s ? Those AZ storage yards are filling up with 50 or less seat aircraft.

Lets assume SW/EJ get rid of 250 airplanes. Roughly 2500 pilots are now in a bidding / training war. Jr. FOs, Maintenance / support staff are given notice. (Remember what happened when Pinnacle bought Mesaba.) Costs (especially training) skyrocket, flights are cancelled, morale goes in the pits. American, Delta, Continental, Alaska, US Airways and United are now competing for SW/EJ support.

Delta may have a unique opportunity - a CRJ900 regional with standardized training, in place support systems, the ability to expand quickly and the lack of competition with other majors for support. It would be highly efficient with long term cost savings. I believe that's their goal - as long as the COST STRUCTURE is acceptable.

They also need to establish a "source of experienced well trained pilots for the future. The best way to do that is exercise control (or at least influence) over the hiring and training process. I'll still go "way out on the limb" and predict that if the TA is passed, Delta will purchase Pinnacle. (probably for less money then they got for Mesaba )

IMHO - They will grant wavers "in the flow" for no college degree, etc. Imagine bypassing a 10,00 hr CRJ900 Captain because he does not have a BA in Underwater Basket Weaving. Supply and demand will dictate what waivers are granted.


Anyone remember the word "staple ?"

Lol @ Delta buying Pinnacle and stapling them.

Comedy.

More like farce - In theatre, a farce is a comedy that aims at entertaining the audience by means of unlikely, extravagant, and improbable situations, disguise and mistaken identity, verbal humor of varying degrees of sophistication, which may include word play, and a fast-paced plot whose speed usually increases, culminating in an ending which often involves an elaborate chase scene. [union vote] Farces are often highly incomprehensible plot-wise (due to the large number of plot twists and random events that often occur), but viewers are encouraged not to try to follow the plot in order to avoid becoming confused and overwhelmed. Farce is also characterized by physical humor, the use of deliberate absurdity or nonsense, and broadly stylized performances.

The best description of airlines union / management relationships that I have ever read.

Delta will not grant any waivers on no degree. Also in order to have well trained pilots you need a training department. 9E has a checking department.

Doubtful. In this day and age, it's not THAT hard to take some initiative and get a degree. You can even do it online while you're sitting in your hotel room. Plenty of FOs (including myself) did it, why can't the senior guys with 10,000 hours do the same thing? It'll take a decade or so (or at least the terms of the TA + 6 months) to go through the 9E list. I don't see any reason why Delta would give a waiver on it when they can just go to the next guy on the list ad naseum.

XJ HAS A TRAINING DEPARTMENT.

Supply and demand will determine the need for a college degree. If there is ever a "critical shortage" of airline qualified pilots in the US I see a civilian version of the USAF Aviation Cadet program returning. Costs would be shared by the government and the airlines. Highly screened applicants (high school graduates) put through a one year pilot training program where the "wash out rate" is 60-70%. Only the best survive. Graduates would have waivers to the 1500 hr./ ATP requirement if they go to a regional. It does not take a college degree to fly an airplane; it takes a well trained pilot.

Pinchanickled, if you were making $75K to $120k per year, would you be so eager to give that up for the sake of the industry and the good of other pilots? Just curious, an honest yes or no answer please with an explanation if you dont mind. Thanks

I dont make that much. Im in the senior FO payscale. but it is better than the alternative of starting over at $18K.

Also, in all sincerity, could you explain how it will benefit the industry when our airplanes go to a carrier that will fly them for less than we can, even with our concessionary TA? Keep in mind that three other carriers have already bid for our flying in the event the TA doesnt pass and they are cheaper than us with our TA.

Where is the support for 9E for keeping our planes out of the hands of the lowest bidder? Once again, Im just curious.




You guys still crack me up

Your convinced aren't you? Are you really that gullible?

Why don't you just work for free then? They can rename the airline Not-for-Profit-Airways!!!

Pilot pay is just a drop in the bucket. Delta is just trying to scare you into a pay cut. And look, it just might work! Even after all those years of negotiating a higher pay rate, you'll just give it up like a wimp on the playground when the bully says give him your lunch money. You just coward down and hand it right over.

How low can you go? Ah hell, just cry Uncle and rename the circus "Not-For-Profit-Airways."

Had. I had the "training experience" after the merge. PC, LOFT, recurrent.
It was still 9E training style. XJ also had AQP, which is now gone as well.

As for a "critical shortage" of airline pilots, I don't think we'll see that. If it comes down to it, they'll just start hiring guys outta ERAU or UND rather than waive the degree. Plenty of guys on the street, in the military, flying freight, flying corporate or mired in the regionals for the majors. Even then, there's no guarantee the number of jobs at the majors won't either shrink or stay the same. Bigger airplanes or less frequency means that. So do mergers and code shares. Productivity language in contracts also has an impact.

Keep in mind. Your reputation is at stake. When pilots don't stand up for the profession, they are grouped into a category that is not able to be hired. Scabs, management goons and others make it on to a list that can't be hired anywhere.

If Pinnacle votes in a pay cut, from an already pathetic pay, it will have gone from an equal to Mesa to far far below Mesa.

Don't ruin the profession for a short sighted gain. Pilots are worth a lot of money, don't become a prostitute.

It is sad that a group of pilots is being forced to swallow the many egregious mistakes made by a management group that either lacked foresight or simply didn't care.

I feel for you guys and gals.

This does not answer my previous question I posed to you so here they are again.

1) Pinchanickled, if you were making $75K to $120k per year, would you be so eager to give that up for the sake of the industry and the good of other pilots? Just curious, an honest yes or no answer please with an explanation if you dont mind. Thanks

2) Also, in all sincerity, could you explain how it will benefit the industry when our airplanes go to a carrier that will fly them for less than we can, even with our concessionary TA?

Your asking us to save your paycheck. You make the arguement that this involves all of us. What are you doing to save mine?


This TA puts us squarely in the middle the pack with respect to the cost of a regional airline. Mesa and GoJets and a few other are significantly cheaper than us. Doesnt that count for something to you?

This deal sucks for all of us. I will be furloughed so I wont be around long enough to benefit from (if you can call it a benefit) from this TA. It still makes more sense to me than unemployment and food stamps.





You guys still crack me up

1.). There's no giving it up because it's gone. Out of 2,320 pilots 1,910 will have a job loss (either Captain downgrade or furlough). The remaining 410 captains are lifers with blemished records or no degree. Obviously the top 410 will vote yes. The others should vote NO as a retaliation and out of moral ethic to not wuss into dirt cheap wages.

2.). That is if you believe Delta isn't bluffing. Do you believe everything? What's next, they tell you to work for free and you do it?

Get a backbone. For real!

Im not trying to make you mad man, relax. Im just trying to understand. If you can explain it to me so that a person in my postion would agree with you, I may change my vote. You just seem to have this "take one for the team" thing going on. Are you with an ALPA carrier? If so, you just suggested that we essentially retaliate against the remaining 810 ALPA card carrying pilots that will remain. Not cool. You wont hurt management by voting no because Delta is going to clean house and put their own team into manage. Delta is very unhappy with our management, or should I say, mis-management team.

With regard for you first answer up top, it still doesnt answer the question. Would you personally give up say $65k per year for the sake of the industry and your fellow pilots, with no job prospects on the horizon?

With regard for your second answer, Delta has done nothing in the recent past that would lead me to believe they are bluffing (eg. Comair)

As for dirt cheap wages, RAH, GoJets, Mesa's (et.al.) will still be cheaper than us




You guys still crack me up

I don't know your TA very well. Just what I've heard. I'm curious how many of your pilots would have voted "No" if management didn't offer furlough pay for 3 months and Travel Benefits.

Yes, the rest of us are ****ed off because now when we go into negotiations our companies will tell us we can't compete unless we also take pay cuts.

Most of you that get furloughed will move on to other airlines or aviation jobs and probably will never go back. It just seems like it's screwing the rest of us for a measly 3 months of furlough pay?

However, that being said I'm not in your shoes. So, while it might upset me on the inside I still will have a professional respect for your pilot group.

:rolleyes: care to say that to my face while you look at my records and transcript? Or did you hear that tired excuse from your cousin's wife's friend who is a ramper? So it's the top guys now that have pink slips? what about your post about how many FO's can't pass their ATP and your ride wasn't fair?

Does that mean I'm off the next 4 days and just need to show up to "check" and "sign"? I'll lean forward and show up tomorrow to teach for a few days before the "checking event".

A whole lot of chest beating around here. Don't ruin my potential income. You all haven't and won't do anything to protect my job. I have a back bone, keep snickering from your keyboard. The rest of us are doing what's best for our families. Until I see you and your MECs offering tangible benefits to us if we vote no, your ego won't make me lose any sleep.