Flying Magazine's Day in the Life of RJ Pilot
06-04-2013 | 05:28 AM
#101
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,967
Likes: 0
Look, you guys are preaching to the choir here. But, and I mean this with the highest respect for my fellow pilots, you guys are in a bit of denial. Your points are all fair, quite poignant, concise, spot on but they are heavily biased and unfortunately irrelevant. Take your potential job loss out of the picture, remove your perspective and look at it from the pov of an airline CEO. I'm with you guys, but you are not addressing the primary driving force toward cockpit automation:
$$$$ Cha Ching!!!!
If you don't believe that airline CEO's and BOD's aren't salivating at the chance to replace pilots with Windows 20 then well...dare I say they got you fooled. Think about it, how wise would it be for say Doug Parker to publicly acknowledge a corporate policy towards acquiring pilot-less aircraft once the tech is completely viable? Airbus has not put a huge amount of effort into maturing the technology because they have no takers on it. But that is not because no one wants them, it's because no airline wants to go out on that limb today. Parker would have his house stormed with pilots holding pitchforks and torches if he placed an oder for "George jets."
But some carrier, probably much sooner rather than later will bite. And that will be all it takes for Airbus to deal with the kinks...funding is everything with aviation tech development.
The fact that some cargo carriers still fly guys sideways is also irrelevant. Old technology will always co-exist side by side with the state of the art even at the same company. I.e. that United 787 sitting on a gate parked next to a 767-3 (yes I know the 76 has no FE but you see my point) in the same livery. That comparison is meaningless. It's all about the economics. No company will park old planes overnight in lieu of new ones. Fleet integration is a never ending process of airframe renewal and timeout. Most airlines are equipped with the last 3 or 4 generations of technology at any given time.
$$$$ Cha Ching!!!!
If you don't believe that airline CEO's and BOD's aren't salivating at the chance to replace pilots with Windows 20 then well...dare I say they got you fooled. Think about it, how wise would it be for say Doug Parker to publicly acknowledge a corporate policy towards acquiring pilot-less aircraft once the tech is completely viable? Airbus has not put a huge amount of effort into maturing the technology because they have no takers on it. But that is not because no one wants them, it's because no airline wants to go out on that limb today. Parker would have his house stormed with pilots holding pitchforks and torches if he placed an oder for "George jets."
But some carrier, probably much sooner rather than later will bite. And that will be all it takes for Airbus to deal with the kinks...funding is everything with aviation tech development.
The fact that some cargo carriers still fly guys sideways is also irrelevant. Old technology will always co-exist side by side with the state of the art even at the same company. I.e. that United 787 sitting on a gate parked next to a 767-3 (yes I know the 76 has no FE but you see my point) in the same livery. That comparison is meaningless. It's all about the economics. No company will park old planes overnight in lieu of new ones. Fleet integration is a never ending process of airframe renewal and timeout. Most airlines are equipped with the last 3 or 4 generations of technology at any given time.
I see airplanes with one pilot happening in the span of our careers. Maybe even within the next 20 years. Of course, the unions will fight this, just like they did when the navigator and engineers were replaced by computers in the 70s and 80s. That will be the biggest obstacle, not the technology. Most modern digital jets could easily be flown single pilot.
As for fully automated planes, I don't see the public support there anytime in the next 50 years. You will always have the fear of computer failure, unexpected weather (who's going to see that huge buildup that's not painting on radar, and ask for 10 right?), and a host of other issues.
Talk of datalink security only applies if we're talking about drones with pilots on the ground. I see even less support for that in an airliner, because no one is going to get on a plane where the pilot isn't vested in the successful completion of the flight.
06-04-2013 | 05:37 AM
#102
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 737
Likes: 0
Even with full automation, someone, somewhere, would have to be in charge and make critical decisions. A true AI capable of dealing with things like WX deviations, the NAT system, compounding mechanicals, problems with the pax and crew, ATC, etc (a list a mile long) simply isn't there.
Assuming the pilot is driving the airplane while wearing dirty tighty-whiteys from his PC in a living room, it'd require immense bandwidth. With thousands of aircraft airborne, you'd have terabytes per second streaming all over the globe. What happens with a solar flare? Or intentional jamming?
Do we really want to trust our lives to a RADIO link? Because in the end, that's what it would be. There's no other method of remotely piloting an aircraft.
Assuming the pilot is driving the airplane while wearing dirty tighty-whiteys from his PC in a living room, it'd require immense bandwidth. With thousands of aircraft airborne, you'd have terabytes per second streaming all over the globe. What happens with a solar flare? Or intentional jamming?
Do we really want to trust our lives to a RADIO link? Because in the end, that's what it would be. There's no other method of remotely piloting an aircraft.
06-04-2013 | 05:47 AM
#103
Kerbal Rocket Surgeon
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,099
Likes: 0
From: DTW 717A
Sucks to read this rubbish but i tell people all the time i could teach a 5 year old to fly a 70 year old airplane straight and level without autopilot. The autopilot is to a pilot what a spreadsheet is to an office manager. The job is still there to be done, and doing it the hard way only serves to distract the manager's attention from everything else going on in the office. A pilot who believes that the autopilot is "doing everything for me" is not yet a true pilot.
06-04-2013 | 06:15 AM
#104
Working weekends
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,384
Likes: 0
From: Left Seat
Drones ? Etc ? "never happen ?"
Lets remember that the FE is a critical component of the flight crew and while the regional nature of the B-737 and DC-9s which have come into the fleet may be without one, the international and/or overwater nature of our B-707, 747, DC-8, L-1011, and DC-10 aircraft will always require one due to the international mission and associated challenges.
Lets remember that the FE is a critical component of the flight crew and while the regional nature of the B-737 and DC-9s which have come into the fleet may be without one, the international and/or overwater nature of our B-707, 747, DC-8, L-1011, and DC-10 aircraft will always require one due to the international mission and associated challenges.
06-04-2013 | 06:31 AM
#105
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 4,148
Likes: 43
From: Volleyball Player
I don't doubt it's being developed. Flight International just reported a few weeks ago that Boeing, in conjunction with Honeywell, Thales, and a few other companies is developing a single-pilot cockpit that would use utilize a human "copilot" on the ground to monitor and if necessary override the pilot in the air. It's thoroughly doable with technology only a little more advanced than that in widespread use today. I could even see them convincing the public that it represents a safety advance, considering nobody is watching those persnickety pilots right now, much less in a position to override them. The real problem is securing the datalink. Thus far the only really foolproof way to secure networks against attack and infiltration has been to make them closed loop - and even then the larger the network, the more vulnerable. By the very nature of the system, the aircraft monitoring & control network would be open-loop and worldwide. It would be a terrorist's wet dream and the ultimate hacker challenge. The real advance in technology needed for single-pilot or no-pilot aircraft to become a reality is network security. It's not even close to where it needs to be for the FAA to dream of certifying the system. In my lifetime, maybe. But I don't see the cost savings justifying the development & certification cost + infrastructure + added risk anytime soon unless pilots get massively more expensive. We can only hope 
.
.
06-04-2013 | 06:34 AM
#106
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,248
Likes: 0
From: 767A (Ret)
06-04-2013 | 06:49 AM
#107
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,112
Likes: 0
From: SFO Guppy CA
I'm all for this! Then when they tube one into the dirt, it'll be 70% computer error or operator error. Not pilot error! All sarcasm aside, this could happen within the next 20 years or so. But I think that they would experiment with cargo first. Also, as soon as there is an accident, the whole conversation will be moot for some time after.
06-04-2013 | 08:44 AM
#108
Flies for Fun
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 358
Likes: 0
From: CE-172 Heavy
Heck my M37, and several other types of cars, just about drive themselves now. If I'm not paying attention it will stop for me preventing a collision, I can hop on the interstate in ATL, set the cruise at 79 and never touch the gas or the brake until I want to exit the interstate in Ft. Myers and if I drift over into the next lane it beeps and hits the opposite side brakes bringing the car back into my lane. All these toys are part of a $3,000 Technology Package.
At this point, the car is probably one ecm, a handful of sensors and an interface into an electric rack and pinion from being able to drive itself. That might be a bit of an exaggeration but not by much.
06-04-2013 | 08:52 AM
#109
Working weekends
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,384
Likes: 0
From: Left Seat
FAA and Congress, to include I am sure ICAO, would have to sign off on pilot-less aircraft. Imagine code-share Iberia pax being told, your connecting flight into Orlando will be on a pilot-less aircraft. Uh, say what ?
So, yes, our jobs are secure for probably 50 more years. Just remember, 50 years ago was 1963, the early days of the jet age and FE's, etc. So, never say never. But for those of use age 15 and older, today, the professional pilot job still will exist.
So, yes, our jobs are secure for probably 50 more years. Just remember, 50 years ago was 1963, the early days of the jet age and FE's, etc. So, never say never. But for those of use age 15 and older, today, the professional pilot job still will exist.
06-04-2013 | 08:54 AM
#110
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 451
Likes: 0
From: Grounded
[raises his hand]
Heck my M37, and several other types of cars, just about drive themselves now. If I'm not paying attention it will stop for me preventing a collision, I can hop on the interstate in ATL, set the cruise at 79 and never touch the gas or the brake until I want to exit the interstate in Ft. Myers and if I drift over into the next lane it beeps and hits the opposite side brakes bringing the car back into my lane. All these toys are part of a $3,000 Technology Package.
At this point, the car is probably one ecm, a handful of sensors and an interface into an electric rack and pinion from being able to drive itself. That might be a bit of an exaggeration but not by much.
Heck my M37, and several other types of cars, just about drive themselves now. If I'm not paying attention it will stop for me preventing a collision, I can hop on the interstate in ATL, set the cruise at 79 and never touch the gas or the brake until I want to exit the interstate in Ft. Myers and if I drift over into the next lane it beeps and hits the opposite side brakes bringing the car back into my lane. All these toys are part of a $3,000 Technology Package.
At this point, the car is probably one ecm, a handful of sensors and an interface into an electric rack and pinion from being able to drive itself. That might be a bit of an exaggeration but not by much.
I am sorry but not to bust on you, if I don't want to drive, I much rather use the train or some other mode of public transportation. I have a car to drive and not the other way around.
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