It is a good thing, they will shift flying from the regionals back to mainline because as they re fleet mainline and with current cost even if pilots worked for free the RJs earning potential is not as great as small NB aircraft. With the industry consolidating, 1500 hr rules, lack of people interested in becoming pilots, new rest rules and much of the outsourcing that has taken place at other workgroups outside of the flight crews the regionals don't serve as much purpose being as large as they are but they will continue to have a place. The regionals combined will be 1500 aircraft by end of 2015 and that number will likely continue to shrink as we approach the end of the decade and retirements pick up to over 2,500 pilots a year when you account for 121 and cargo pilots. Don't forget also that a good number of regionals have a significant amount of pilots who will retire in the next 10 years. Eagle will retire over 20 pilots a year over the next 10 years. That's an extra 200+ pilots. SKW, Pinnacle, RAH, EXJ have numbers that are comparable so out of the 17000 or so pilots at the regionals today close to 10% won't be around. You ad in that mainlines will replace 60% of their pilots in the next 10 years (20000+) and that there are no where enough applicants to cover the regionals need of today. There won't be a shortage as the mainlines will just adjust accordingly, they will add programs to make it easier and more appealing to be an airline pilots.... Oh wait, AE is already trying to do that

 

True, I can see that happening, but slot controlled airports, unless I have dated info, have requirements to "use them or lose them", and they are worth big bucks to lose and have put up for bid.

Wasn't Simmons bought partly for it's ORD slots when Simmons got hold of the old Britt slots?

 

I wouldn't necessarily buy into another player as the AA/US combined airline has many players, I actually see the mainlines reducing the number players. They have clauses in that regionals will maintain a certain cost structure and be indexed every 5 or so years towards the most cost efficient operations. Times have changed, the whipsaw will continue but not as many players will needed.

Delta will have Pinnacle and Compass perform most of the flying, United will have SKW and EXJ do most of their flying and AA/US will have Eagle/PSA combined doing most of the feed with some other operators tied in. You will see RAH go down to one operating certificate likely in BK as I don't see them being able to unload Frontier at a profit and likely will be left with some debt. They have also undercut everyone and at some point the bills won't be able to be paid and the debt will be high. Similar to AA. I think a tell of where RAH will be going are the details form the Frontier sale.

 

I'll play the role of an additional pessimist here. Our offer at eagle was for 60 new planes. Now they're supposedly talking with PSA about 60 new planes. Lets not rule out that SKW has options for 60 additional Ejets, and their first base is already announced to be ORD for the Ejet. SKW already does flying for both AA and US. They could EASILY be given the 60 additional planes. Their options and the number management is putting out match.

 

Listen to the video out on Kirby's Q&A, also read what came form their camp late spring early summer. The 60 is just the first wave, there is a number of orders that they will be making as the regionals re fleet. RAH has options, Compass has options and SKW has options.

SKW could get airplanes out west specially since the 50 seaters they have on contract with AA are some of the older -200 and the contract expires in 3 years. Look at the option SKW has for the later part of decade, these will be replacing some of the current flying they do for UAL.

RAH will not just be flying out of ORD for AA, they will slowly blend into the system and since they do outstation bases it will be easier to fit them into the DFW market as well as MIA. There will be much shifting around over the next years or so.

With that said they could make an example out of Eagle just like Delta did with Comair but management has a different plan for Eagle. They are investing heavily into the company and they already have cost saving measures in place.

 

Eagle will be nothing more than a ground service provider in the end.
Thats management vision.

 

I doubt that, they wouldn't set up the recruiting programs and incentives to work at Eagle. Management is smarter and better trained than we are, they don't waste money just to ruin your life. There is a plan, they'll execute their plan and whether or not it makes you miserable is no concern of theirs.

Eagle's future isn't rosy, no regional's is, but it's foolish to think it will just disappear.

 

Already been pinched by the man already, probably better not to push it.

In other words - just ignore RJPilot.

 

Not an irony at all. The last decade would not support the 80 - this market will.
The story of Eagle was to keep the network intact until mainline could bounce back.
Nothing to see here

 

OR
if they do intend to shutter egl the efforts show a judge that they tried to honor the promises to egl but well you know the rest...