Lateral moves from Eagle?
12-25-2013 | 07:24 PM
#51
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From: The Parlor
If your looking at Compass:
As of the last award we have 575 pilots on property, with 310ish eligible for flow. In a perfect world all 310 would go, but having flown with some of the guys, it sounds like a few may hold back for other opportunities or they are comfortable where they are (50+ years old) and don't want to commute to reserve at DAL.
Mind you, there will be other guys outside of the flows that will leave for greener pastures like UAL, AA, NKS, SWA, etc. but we are getting to the point where upgrades wont be guaranteed quickly like they have been for most of the new hires. My estimate is at least 3-5 years now upgrade time for people starting after the first of the year...We have 265ish pilots on the SL that aren't flow eligible and with the end state being around 450ish, it's just something everyone may want to consider. I think we are done hiring FO's for MSP/DTW and all are going to LAX now (about 20-30 more FO's), the company will build another pool after this round of new hires, for the next set of flows in 2015.
The other problem is even with the future upgrades is finding the guys to backfill into FO spots, who won't be guaranteed quick upgrades. I'm excited about the future here at CPZ and it is a great airline, but I worry in 2 years if we will be able to find people to fill the right seat...
As of the last award we have 575 pilots on property, with 310ish eligible for flow. In a perfect world all 310 would go, but having flown with some of the guys, it sounds like a few may hold back for other opportunities or they are comfortable where they are (50+ years old) and don't want to commute to reserve at DAL.
Mind you, there will be other guys outside of the flows that will leave for greener pastures like UAL, AA, NKS, SWA, etc. but we are getting to the point where upgrades wont be guaranteed quickly like they have been for most of the new hires. My estimate is at least 3-5 years now upgrade time for people starting after the first of the year...We have 265ish pilots on the SL that aren't flow eligible and with the end state being around 450ish, it's just something everyone may want to consider. I think we are done hiring FO's for MSP/DTW and all are going to LAX now (about 20-30 more FO's), the company will build another pool after this round of new hires, for the next set of flows in 2015.
The other problem is even with the future upgrades is finding the guys to backfill into FO spots, who won't be guaranteed quick upgrades. I'm excited about the future here at CPZ and it is a great airline, but I worry in 2 years if we will be able to find people to fill the right seat...
Last edited by MrMustache; 12-25-2013 at 07:51 PM.
12-25-2013 | 09:14 PM
#53
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From: The Parlor
12-25-2013 | 10:19 PM
#54
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From: Right
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe.
They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.
For OP there is no way to tell at this point. I would wait and see if the proposal goes through.
That is a very hard decision only you can make and depends on many variables such as where you live and age.
12-26-2013 | 04:52 AM
#55
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From: French-Canadian
False. There are far too many pilots at the regionals. Even the Devil himself Roger Cohen says the regionals currently have 300 too many 50 seaters which is 2-3000ish pilots too many after the transition to larger RJs.
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe. They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe. They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.
You are part of what wrong with this industry, you need someone to tell you things. Go read the company financials and mainlines' SCOPE to understand that there will be over 200 RJs parked over the next 2 years. But I fail to see where there would be a surplus of pilots at the regional level. Last I checked the RJs aren't being replaced on a 1-1 basis but the pilots leaving outpace the number of pilots incoming by a large margin. RAH who has been hiring the most has not been able to grow its seniority list by much and has already said they will sacrifice 50 seaters for the Ejets in 2014 if they are unable to grow their list by 500 pilots. Do you think there is a coincidence of hiring at the legacy level with rip lanes parking at the regional level? For example at Eagle they are offering unrestricted flow after September, well September happens to be when the E140 start being parked. But they are likely to park them sooner but have to restrict the flow as RAH is unable to fully staff all the flying they do for AA.
Eagle can't be shut down over night due to market forces as well as contract language that protects furloughs. I do understand that they can violate those contract provision but they can do the same with the new commitments they are offering. It would take them years to shut the operation down. And if they do it mainly by shifting the flying to mainline then that's exactly what we want but the next 800 eagle guys hired at AA aren't part of just a contract provision but a court order and that's not as easy to violate.
12-26-2013 | 05:09 AM
#56
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12-26-2013 | 05:21 AM
#57
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You're listening to Cohen? I stopped reading right after that comment. That's like listening to the White House press secretary. Only job is to convince you what the boss wants you to think. Cohen does not speak for AA.
In the past they could replace a company like Eagle. It isn't so easy now. If you seriously think they could, then you're really out of touch with the state of the industry. Even AA upper management knows; which is why they want a 10 year contract with no amendment round. They need to get through the next decade as main line hiring goes through the roof and strips the regionals of every hit able pilot.
There are more retirements at the mainlines over the next 10 years than there are pilots in the entire regional industry. Do the math yourself. Guess when it really starts to pick up? Think its coincidence that everybody is getting in contract talks while a majority of pilots still think as you?
In the past they could replace a company like Eagle. It isn't so easy now. If you seriously think they could, then you're really out of touch with the state of the industry. Even AA upper management knows; which is why they want a 10 year contract with no amendment round. They need to get through the next decade as main line hiring goes through the roof and strips the regionals of every hit able pilot.
There are more retirements at the mainlines over the next 10 years than there are pilots in the entire regional industry. Do the math yourself. Guess when it really starts to pick up? Think its coincidence that everybody is getting in contract talks while a majority of pilots still think as you?
12-26-2013 | 05:42 AM
#58
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From: French-Canadian
Mason, any word from your side of the house? As an Eagle guy, I would welcome this proposal and hope that it goes through. The big question for me is, should both sides come together and agree, what says the company will accept? That's the big problem as far as I'm concerned. They would give up their whipsaw with one carrier leaving the fold and move these planes into a higher operating cost environment. Does the proposal address this part? I can just see that as the big hangup.
12-26-2013 | 05:49 AM
#60
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From: The Parlor
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