didn't know, that's why i asked

 

Use to be. Not so much any more.

 

Good job with the no. Good luck with preferential hiring, ask Comair pilots about their preferential hiring.

 

Shrinkage is inevitable. I fully expect the CRJs to be moved in retribution, no matter how much it costs. Bottom 600 or so at risk, IMO.

 

Not a chance that the bottom 600 are at risk. Reasons why:

1) They wouldn't do it all at once. It would be something like 2-3 airplanes a month transferred. We currently have 47 CRJ7s. 47/3= about 15 months at the earliest. They haven't even announced yet when they planned to do this.

2) AE is losing 50+ pilots a month. 20-25 are leaving a month due to flow to AA. Another 25+ are leaving a month due to retirements, leaving for majors, leaving the industry, etc. 50+ pilots a month multiplied by 12 months = 600+ pilots leaving per year.

3) They would most likely want to place these airplanes at the backstabbing airline known as PSA. PSA is at maximum hiring capacity and will likely be so for the next year or so.

 

Have you been to an interview lately?

In the last few years, interviews (especially at the legacy carriers) have become almost entirely HR driven. Yes, pilots are still involved in the process, but they are no longer the decision makers.

It would not surprise me to see the Endeavor, GoJet, and PSA pilots getting hired before XJT and Eagle.

 

I don't have the numbers for other regionals but here at Xjt we are having high attrition the majors. So this just simply isn't true.

US Airways

+3

United

+10

Spirit

+3

Southwest

+7

JetBlue

+7

FlyDubai

+1

Delta

+1

Atlas Air

+2

American

+4

Allegiant

+1

Alaska

+2

This is from last month.

 

Don't forget: we have furlough protection for 95% of pilots on the list as of merger completion, and if they furlough they can't meter our flowthrough, and they know that anyone they furlough will be gone forever, and they admitted during negotiations that they wouldn't be able to furlough anybody no matter how we voted.

There could, however, be stagnation, as attrition picks up (and it will). Junior captains like me could lose our seats, it could really hurt. And in theory after a couple of years' worth of attrition, we could be small enough for them to "Comair" us, as they threatened to do. In theory. Still well worth the no vote.

I'm just guessing, but I think they'll try to give PSA our 47 CRJs, and try to give Mesa the 175 order. A little less sure about Mesa, but PSA has shown they'll fly anyone's planes for any price. The real question is how long until each airline fails to staff them. Our management told us they plan to staff flying at PSA with us--they said they would attempt to lure our FOs away by offering street captains or by setting up a flowthrough to AA at PSA. Most of our FOs would have no problem bailing Eagle but are ****ed enough to want to stay away from PSA. I'm sure they'd get a handful, but not much of the 800+ net pilots they need for the 30 new CRJs they are getting (that were offered to us w/ a b-scale and rejected) and our 47. With Republic parking their American Connection E140s, I'm wondering how quickly they can afford to shrink us anyway. Time will tell.

 

You conveniently left these out:

Retirement +2
Career change +7
"Other" +27.

Kind of skews your numbers a little bit, eh?

 

Other is also unknown. What did I skew? I simply posted attrition to the majors.