Originally Posted by Cubdriver (Post 1772399)

Pure speculation, but I think the future at regional is for slightly higher salaries for a number of years to bring some of the marginally interested pilots out of the woodwork. Gradually they'll raise pay and working conditions as we are already seeing at Lakes, CommutAir and a few others. They are extremely reluctant to dramatically raise pay because once that happens it is impossible to put the cat back in the bag. We'll see piddling raises for years to keep the marginal people coming. Airlines are very good at chiseling costs and will not stop doing that any time soon but I doubt we'll see any of them fold due to lack of pilots.

Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom (Post 1775427)

Which is the very hot button that had most shaking in their booties. Disinformation, obscuration, all smoke and mirrors, and the average line pilot falls for it hook line and sinker. How bout a Billion dollar game of chicken? They have far more to lose than we do. Shrink before raising pilot pay, PLULLLHEEZE, "Oh yeah, we will show those pesky pilots, we will shrink and wave good bye to our cushy cash cow" What are they gonna do in SGU if SKYW shrinks? Work at the Dairy Queen? SAPA is their advertizing agency, plain and simple. Lock in what? They giveth, and they can take it away all based upon a quick keystroke of their Dell computers. Do you really believe the stuff you type or are you a shill?

Originally Posted by Cubdriver (Post 1775491)

Large companies absolutely can use shrinkage as a survival tactic instead of maintaining heavy payrolls. All the bizjet manufacturers in Wichita downsized after the Recession in 2009, Cessna alone laid off 8,000 who never returned. My point was they will only raise them in drips and drabs as the market gins up support. There will not be a genuine, deep pilot shortage in the next 20 years and there isn't really one now either since the pilots already exist.

Originally Posted by Cubdriver (Post 1775491)

Large companies absolutely can use shrinkage as a survival tactic instead of maintaining heavy payrolls. All the bizjet manufacturers in Wichita downsized after the Recession in 2009, Cessna alone laid off 8,000 who never returned. My point was they will only raise them in drips and drabs as the market gins up support. There will not be a genuine, deep pilot shortage in the next 20 years and there isn't really one now either since the pilots already exist.

Originally Posted by Cubdriver (Post 1775491)

Large companies absolutely can use shrinkage as a survival tactic instead of maintaining heavy payrolls. All the bizjet manufacturers in Wichita downsized after the Recession in 2009, Cessna alone laid off 8,000 who never returned. My point was they will only raise them in drips and drabs as the market gins up support. There will not be a genuine, deep pilot shortage in the next 20 years and there isn't really one now either since the pilots already exist.

Originally Posted by Paid2fly (Post 1775756)

Cessna downsized after the recession because their sales plummeted, and had no need for the 8000. The airlines are flying full airplanes with record profits, and losing or dropping oversold flights would only cost them money/profits(which is kinda the reason they're in business)!

Originally Posted by Cubdriver (Post 1775949)

The Wichita analogy still applies because it's shareholder profits which are the bottom line. If you are not clear on that you should be. To make the picture to shareholders looks rosy management will do anything to make it happen, be it tripling pilot pay on down to firing everyone on the premises.

Originally Posted by satpak77 (Post 1775685)

No pilot shortage at majors or quality employers

Period

Originally Posted by Paid2fly (Post 1776508)

You're missing the point, the "Wichita analogy" does not apply. In Wichita they laid off employees because they weren't selling any airplanes. A regional airline with written contracts that have penalties for poor performance and cancellations will not just throw their hands in the air and start parking dozens of aircraft, rather than raise inadequate compensation to attract and retain pilots. Parking the airplanes would cost them, and their precious shareholders far more than any raises for flight crews.