I wonder how many of those 150,000 active ATP's have retired and keep their medicals up to date for GA flying privileges...

There is a significant downward trend in the ATP and Commercial data that you aren't taking into consideration. This is well before the retirement boom was scheduled to start. If there are 150,000 ACTIVE ATPs, where are they? Are there really 70,000 pilots sitting around keeping their medical current just IN CASE they get the call? That just proves that your data is inaccurate or painfully incomplete. I'm going with both actually.

I find it way more likely that there are 150,000 Active ATPs currently employed in commercial aviation than having 70,000 people on the sidelines waiting with anticipation that they get a call from a major. That's ludacris.

Where is the spike in the graph for all the FOs that got ATPs the last few years? Why are there 100,000 CFIs? There also should be a big down spike after the 2008 recession as aviation loans dried up. I don't doubt the numbers but they look a little suspect. And the regionals are most definitely hurting for pilots right now, I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise. That doesn't mean there is a shortage but 30K retention bonuses tells me there is pressure on the supply in some form.

There are five at my little thirteen hanger airport alone.

I'm not going to sit here and argue about this stuff. Take it up with the FAA statistics people. If you wish to believe there's a pilot shortage I doubt any number of facts will deter you anyway. The airlines are only short on people who will work for low wages, that's all, and it is not a pilot shortage by any common definition of the term.

And your terrible facts suggest that there are 70,000 people waiting in the wings. Think a little man. That's ridiculous. Your conclusion is wrong.

You're the one claiming there's a shortage. I showed that view is not in very good alignment with some pretty basic facts about the numbers of ATP airmen around. If you think 70,000 active of those ATP's are not interested in the airlines, then where's the facts to support that claim? At best there seems to be something amiss in the business of claiming there's a pilot shortage if it cannot account for these basic facts. How do you know they are not interested, and if not, then how do you know they would not apply tomorrow if the salaries were competitive with other fields?

If half our profession was unemployed, it would support your statistics. The historical unemployment rate of pilots is 2%. My point is, the study was poorly and hastily done. Your point is "see! No shortage! These vague and poorly defined numbers prove it! "

My study is poorly done? I have no study, I just pointed out two basic facts about how many people are eligible for these jobs and how many of these jobs there are in America. Please do not plant words in my mouth, I said nothing about proof. The reader can think what they want about these two facts I stated, but they are still facts that must be dealt with when making the pilot shortage argument. If you want to shoot down the number of FAA active ATPs then be my guest, but use hard data.

#agreeToDisagree. The ATP spike with new FARs is a great point in that debate. Factual data aside, using the current hiring demands, regionals feeding off of other regionals, there's no question that there is absolutely a pilot shortage.