Raw statistics are just that raw. You are working from one end of the concept, completely ignoring details like ATP + live person does not equal potential airline candidate. Working from my end of the concept, I am talking to the very people who do the interviewing and hiring, the field is beyond thin, its almost empty. So you can take the position there are X amount of these flavor pilots so there is no pilot shortage, quick email all the regionals who are offering signing bonuses of ever increasing amounts, and one is offering a retention of sorts(according to the interwebs). Sorry your theory is flawed at some level, I have been a Captain for 10 years, and the experience level of the F/Os I have been flying with has been falling every year. I fly with guys who went from the right seat of a 172 to CRJ, freight dogs are far and few in between. My position while anecdotal is shared by many of my contemporaries. When I was hired, we had few CFI only guys and they were pretty high time CFIIs with lots of MEL dual flown and given. Today that example is the Unicorn of the regional industry. Don't listen to the industry, watch the money, it will tell all. FAAs motto, "To Promote and Regulate"

I use rational thought. There is no way there are 70,000 people sitting around paying $100 or more a year in the hopes the airlines raise their pay tomorrow.

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/res...dia/201325.pdf

Reference: FAA 2012 Airman medical statistics..

115K total effective 1st class medical certificates active.

All international students in the US get a 1st class medical.

Many US students do as well.

These people on the ATP list can also have 2nd or 3rd class medicals and still be considered active by FAA definition. You have not removed a single person from the (150k) active ATP number with that statistic, in fact you indirectly support the notion that a lot of them not only are active ATPs they are airline-ready and are keeping their airline credentials current.

Not true. I worked at two different flight schools with a heavy amount of Chinese contracts and all of those students got a second class when they came over here.

Holding an ATP and 1st class is different than airline ready.

Increasing first year pay might encourage some of the guys who are actually qualified to give it a shot, I just don't think that will ever happen.

Is there a shortage of ATP's? No.

Is there a shortage of qualified guys willing to work for crap wages? Yes.

What will we be left with? Unqualified guys willing to work for peanuts, with places like ALLATPS and Riddle this pool will remain deep for years.

I agree, there is a shortage of guys who will work for $21 an hour...

I'd load the freight and fly the route at night in ice for > $40 (with one week on and one off of course), but $21???

;) my .02

That is false. I worked for a large 141 school with 99% foreign students. They all had third class medicals.