NEW fall term undergrad students in the aero sci major, both ERAU campuses:

1999 817
2000 834
2001 822
2002 713
2003 656
2004 676
2005 625
2006 705

What the hell happened in 2006? Here I was hoping we were on our way to seeing that vampire of a school wiped from the face of the earth.

Hope
 

We can only hope. In 2006 there were 4000 fewer student pilot licenses issued. AOPA is very concerned.

However haven't you heard? The regionals are hiring !!:confused: I think they will always come no matter what the pay is. Even now we have enough furloughed, underemployed or laid off pilots to last for a decade at least.

SkyHigh

Do you really think that most of those currently furloughed pilots aren't employed by other regionals or majors? Yes there are a lot but the ones who are not flying are so by their own choice. Also, the airlines are projecting over 8000 pilots hired every year though 2025, that includes the majors and regionals. So you say a decade worth of pilots? Show me where these 80,000 pilots are?

Don't forget that if you’re furloughed by US Airways and get hired by UPS, FedEx, SWA, etc you still are listed on US Airways furlough list until you resign or are called back and decline. Of all the pilots furloughed I would say that a fraction aren't elsewhere, even if they are just waiting to get recalled, their employed.

Ah, well...we can still hope for more divine intervention. Maybe next Christmas.

There are less pilots to choose from, but the actions of those presently there will determine the future. Too many pilots are still afraid to say anything because they care more about flying than their actual compensation for doing so.

There is no way any kind of shortage of pilots out there. The pay scales reflect that. It called Supply and Demand. Since there is such a high supply of pilots out there and few jobs the pay scales go down. Period. Don’t buy into the propaganda that there will be a shortage of pilots for the airlines, that propaganda is being used by the flight schools and colleges everywhere to sell there service! Creating pilots...
I like the arguments about unions and see both sides of that coin but whenever I hear someone talking about a shortage of pilot in the industry I have to laugh. Numbers and statistics can be manipulated in anyway to present the data with a desired outcome. Guess what the flight schools want new enrollments are one coming up with these false numbers of pilot shortages.
Just my 2 cents. :o

I agree, there is no shortage until the wages come up big time. That gets harder and harder with a new LCC starting up every other week, with thousands of pilots banging down the doors to work for the lowest wages possible all for the promise of a fast upgrade.

The University I work for continues to grow every year. When I was a student in 94-98 we had about 50-60 students flying. Now we are 200+ with 25 planes. Also.....our sales pitch isn't "Shortage of pilots". We sell the school. Then, when they come to school, I try to pass on the word of the industry. Its not OK to settle for the first shinny jet they can get into for peanuts or often time less. I can't reach all of them though, once SJS sets in it can be like cancer!

Numbers
 

I don't know where you are getting your information. Those numbers most likely are in regards to the entire world. Even so it only takes six months to create an airline pilot out of a ski instructor.

In the last month there have been a few articles referenced on this forum that indicate the opposite of your assumptions. A large percentage of furloughed major airline pilots have chosen employment outside of aviation since there are not any real options a pilot can get flying that can replace the pay and benefits at a major.

Some day there might be a shortage of people willing to do the job of airline pilot for the pay and benefits offered but does that really mean that there is an opportunity that is going to be worth having? Currently there is a shortage of migrant farm workers but the pay is still low and conditions poor.


SkyHigh

http://www.fltops.com/article.asp?ID=4570

I can post more articles if you like.

My father is retired American former Braniff. My mother retired FA and most all of our family friends are former or current airline pilots. My sources are from the current industry and may credited online reports. I don't want to argue with you, the bottom line is, even if you just count the regionals alone there will be more than 5000 pilots hired in 07. SKW is on pace to top 700 themselves.

Most all majors are now hiring. (SWA, AirTran, Delta, UPS, FedEx, Alaska, United, etc)