The FAA numbers do indicate much lower numbers of certificates being issued. There may still be enough pilots at least for the time being, but unless they shrink the combined U.S. fleet there may be some problems.

Pilots
 

As I have mentioned before there is significant evidence that there are at least 30,000 to 60,000 commercial grade pilots who quit flying (or never really started) let their medicals lapse and are sitting on the sidelines. If conditions at the airlines were to improve tomorrow I am sure that many would get current medicals and go back to work.

Everyone is talking about a pilot shortage but forget that over the last 5 years there has been almost zero hiring at the majors. We have lost so much over the last few years that it will take a long time to get back to where we should be.

DAL is hiring again after a reduction in force. The new hires are replaceing pilots who chose not to return.

Out on my college graduating class less than 10% are still flying. They could be easily be tempted back if the industry came even close to being worthwhile.

SKyHigh

Losses
 

Most likely the regional hiring boom is about played out. The majors are going to pick up a few but after 5 years of layoffs and furloughs they will have to hire a huge amount in order to make a difference. The military alone trains 11,000 new pilots a year.

The real question is, will the jobs be worth having? Increased hiring does not equate to better pay and working conditions. The regionals have been hiring like mad and the pay is still poor.

I am sure that in the future anyone who wants one will be able to find a flying job, but it will be because no one will want the job anymore.

SkyHigh

The guys on the sidelines are not getting any younger and the airlines cannot possibly make it worth it for them to come back. They would be starting at entry level seniority, there is just no way. So what we are left with is the new guys.

SFLPILOT is right. Why would someone who is successful in another occupation return to the airline flying after a significant absence. I left professional aviation and went into teaching and management. Sailplanes (SSA) and sport aviation (EAA) is where I got my aviation fix. I could have bailed out on a $75,000 a year job (home every night) ten years ago and become a junior First Officer.

"What you have left is the new guys." Take care of your new FO. Mentor and teach him/her. Someday he/she might be giving you a line check.:eek:

This Number is way High. like 5 Times too high. I don't think the Military even produces 11000 Officers a year.

The military does not train 11,000 new pilots a year...not even close. Laughlin AFB puts out about 160-200 pilots a year. That is one of only three bases that the AF trains at. I would have to say the navy is about the same.

Military pilot training production was low in the 1990s. When training numbers picked up after 2000, the USAF committment after graduation was increased to ten years. I don't know what the Navy or Army commitments were. Unless the military institutes an early out because of budget considerations, most young military pilots will serve well into 2010-2017.

After 6 months of being away from APC - I see SkyHigh is still in his ways.

:)

Very good discussion though, good first thread to return to APC with.

When I was looking into joining up to fly (about a year and a half ago), all the fixed wing commitments were 2 yrs of training, followed by two 4 yr terms. so 10 total years.