I'm an AA pilot. First of all, like others have said, you don't need to get too wrapped around the axle worrying about it this far out. This industry is so dynamic and it's quite possible the whole landscape looks different by the time you're ready to apply to regionals. Having said that, I'll address some of your points.

AA has been hiring primarily from the military and its WO regionals in the past. A very small margin of guys have gotten through the door that didn't come from one of these sources. But starting in 2020, that is changing. AA is beginning to greatly amp up its hiring. The goal is to hire 1,400 pilots this year. The number of flowthroughs that AA takes each month isn't changing, for now. So this will open the door for many more street hires. Historically, roughly 50% of new hires have come from the flowthrough program. In 2020, that's dropping to about 30%. This is just the beginning of a massive hiring wave at AA. Retirements don't even begin to peak here for a couple more years. The company is just trying to get ahead of the game.

Now...this obviously makes the flow program at the AA WOs less valuable. So it's entirely possible that AA could increase the number of guys that flow each month to help recruiting at its regionals and keep them staffed. Only time will tell. AA is a great place to work and the career progression in the future is unprecedented with the amount of retirements forthcoming. It's not the only game in town though. The other legacies and FedEx and UPS offer excellent opportunities as well. One point I'll make though is unless you're willing to move from North Carolina, PSA and AA are the only places that will allow you to avoid commuting. And until you've experienced commuting in the flesh, you don't realize how miserable it is. It may sound okay on paper but until you've lived it you don't know how much it sucks.

Bottom line, the biggest hiring wave in the history of the airlines is about come upon us. You'll have absolutely no problem moving on from a regional to a major airline. So it just comes down to what you're after. If AA specifically is your goal, I'd probably do the PSA deal just to have that insurance policy in your back pocket just in case you couldn't get to AA through the front door. If you're open to airlines outside of the AA brand, then by all means choose wherever your heart desires. Good luck.

Well put, black cat.

Thanks for the great post, black cat . All good things to think about. While the flow is the surest way to make it to AA, as Dylan said, "the times they are a changin'." While AA could plausibly increase flow to help cover other attrition/retirements, doing so wouldn't be without a detrimental effect on their regional operation. I think it's far more likely they leave the flow where it is to ensure a comparatively predictable amount of attrition from the wholly-owned regionals.

Flow may be the surest, but also it could be the slowest...


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I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but 9 out of 45 isn’t great. That’s only 20%.. And out of those 9, how many had prior military experience? My guess is the majority. So for a pure civilian pilot, the current odds of moving from YX to the Big 3 still aren’t great. Probably less than 5% of those moving to the Big 3 are pure civilian with no military background.

I don't know a single person that got stuck at republic unless they were lazy and never updated logbook or had some crazy skeletons in closet. Your wholly owned friends are just drinking that koolaid. Their flow takes forever so their mouths are gonna be real blue. Also RWs contract, work rules, moral and pay is better than PSAs. Hands down.

if you seriously don’t know anybody at republic (or any regional) with no skeletons that wants to move on and can’t, you don’t know many people.

It really depends where you want to be. If AA is your absolute must have goal you'd be dumb to look at the past and think that republic is the best way to go. For whatever reason, AA just doesn't hire from you guys much at all. As others have said we are entering uncharted territory and it very well could change, but you can guess just as well as I can how it will shake out.

People are flowing from PSA and PDT in less than five years. Talk down the flow all you want but I don't see republic sending 6 guys (PDT) and 15 ish guys (PSA) to AA every single month after less than five years on the seniority list.... Numbers don't lie. Didn't list Envoy cuz I don't know much about them and their deal is complicated with protected and non-protected pilots. Flow won't be nearly that quick for someone today but just pointing out that you're either being negative on other airlines to make yourself feel better or you just don't know what you're talking about.

Most likely some some of both.

To play devil's advocate, AA could also slow the flow to a trickle in order to keep their regionals staffed and instead hire from EDV or other regionals.