Delta just upped hiring to 85/month, AA/USair and United/Continental are about that number with their combined hiring. That's three legacies hiring 3000/year, and retirements have barely begun. Add to that Southwest, FedEx, UPS, and business aviation that has over 13,000 jets on order for delivery in the next ten years.

On the supply side, Embry Riddle, Flight Safety International, and other big schools are 90% foreign students, they are only graduating hundreds of American pilots per year at all the big schools. Most have commitments overseas.

All the regionals and ultra-low-cost carriers have less than 10,000 pilots who aren't too old to realistically consider a career at a major. How long will it take to burn through 10,000 pilots hiring around 4,500 per year (Boeing's number)? ALPA claims there "might be thousands" of pilots ready to return to the U.S. economy, doubtful but that might gain us months. What will the U.S. economy look like if we do move all our regional pilots to three majors, and no longer serve 70% of our current airline destinations in this country?

A crisis will not be good for pilots, it will only add pressure to water down safety rules and speed efforts to eliminate skilled pilots. The major airlines stand to benefit immensely from a pilot shortage, it has been in the works for a long time.

 

Those "13,000 jets on order for delivery in the next ten years" are largely fleet recapitalization, NOT growth airframes.

 

Only for the E-jet. Not for the Q-400.

 

Will upgrades reached 2008 hires from this vacancy? Not a good idea to go to RAH for a specific base, because it will close within a few years.

 

No. Remember, they are parking the 145's to staff the 175's.

 

In an industry that only employs around 10-12,000 pilots, having 13,000 jets on order means they will need a lot more pilots. Their current 12k pilots have been stagnated there for a long time, they are aging out about the same as the major airlines, so even without any new planes, they would need a heck of a lot of pilots. The combination means we will see more demand for business aviation pilots than for airline pilots in some years. That matches predictions from the National Business Aviation Association and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There are many forces like this building quietly without much press, even the major airlines might not have noticed when they decided they could weather a pilot shortage that puts their competitors out.