They can't even run it now. The annual summer meltdown has already begun, and they can't blame 80s in hot weather this time. It's gross mismanagement. And their solution is poking the pilot group in the eye? Yeah, that will fix it. The Teamsters is getting ready to run a strike vote. Are the investors even aware of this? They should be. This isn't a mom and pop operation that MG can manipulate anymore. It's time for our management to either run it responsibly or sell it to someone who will.

Staffing model aside, did you miss the part where we add a sh!t ton of airplanes (relatively speaking) over the next few years? Not to mention, the new figures are FP&A driven and are ridiculous and won’t last.

What? Where do you get mid 2019? I'll bet you a six pack or bottle of your/my choice if we don't hire before that? Deal?

I'm betting we hire this year, probably by October.

I would double down with late first quarter 2019 to middle of the year. I would almost bet a keg we don’t hire this year though.


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Any news on meet and greets coming up? Where do they usually announce them or is it just best to stalk the forum for that kind of announcement? Thx

OBAP Conference
Aug. 15 - 17 2018, Houston

ECAM has been pretty accurate with these kinds of forecasts. Hiring in 2018 is unlikely because even if we needed pilots in 2018 we wouldn't hire until it became a major problem, then and only then, we will spend 2019 catching up. Its how it always goes here.

Exactly. Now that we have paused hiring, they won't resume until we are canceling flights due to pilot shortages. First they are going to fight the battle with the union to reduce headcount per aircraft and choose PBS systems. If/when they lose that, they will begin hiring and actually run classes a month or two later. I'm still going with mid 2019. Their current headcount forecast doesn't show us needing pilots for a while. I believe that's overly optimistic (low) and that they can't run an airline at those levels. The final level will probably be a little less than we have now, but above whet they are predicting. They are using it as a negotiating tactic.

Also, let's agree that the general economy seems to be turning a corner and fuel prices are rising. If the downturn comes soon, as most analysts are predicting, all bets are off. Allegiant will weather the downturn better than most, but expansion will stop. We are currently staffed for the flying we do right now. That could mean an extended period of little or no hiring. Attrition remains very low.

Sounds like no movement, and not much pilot growth. Do you think someone hired in 2019 will upgrade in the foreseeable future or be stuck as a career fo? Sounds like it would exhausting working there if they get more planes and less pilots.

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