Every one of the driverless test beds... Google, Waymo and Uber driverless here in PHX has crashed or hit a pedestrian. Its way far off in the future.

Not just in PHX. Recent article I read said it wasn't limited to self drivers, even the "aids" are failing at a spectacular rate. To many expensive moving parts in self driving cars that you can't expect most people to repair and maintain. I can't imagine the cheapest people on the planet (airline management) actually taking care of and fixing automation on this level will enough for it to be truly reliable.

When we see it in the cargo operations then I will start to worry.

As far as AI is concerned in regards to automation, I really am starting to believe that it will hit aviation first before cars. I say this because aviations infrastructure is far more advanced than the current highway system. With NEXt Gen coming online it will be far easier to implement than in the automobile market. I think the days of single pilot ops are coming in fruitation. Not only that, but I think AI is the next big invention that will change the world like the internet did. It's going to change everything and jobs will be replaced with machines. I think a lot of blue collar jobs are going away in the future. I don't know what people are going to do to make money, but I think something will have to be figured out.

This startup plans to build giant turboprop drones that can hold as much cargo as a 777 at half the cost.

They’ll fly in the mid 20,000 range at 300 ish knots over the Pacific Ocean.

www.natilus.co

It looks plausible to me.

One thing I rarely hear mentioned is even if the technology is there for RC drones replacing aircraft, is how much higher the insurance rates will be----which of course would likely offset (luckily) any cost savings for airline management.

Notice how much more $$$ insurance is for even already existing single pilot flown A/C in business aviation that usually are flown as a crew (KA 350, CJ2, etc) vs what is charged for these planes flown as a crew.

I just dont see, even if technologically possible, that the insurance companies are going to willingly expose themselves to this risk, without a HUGE increase in premiums....more than offsetting what it costs to pay a 2nd pilot.

If cyberwarfare techniques can pluck "secure" Lockheed Martin technology out of the sky, then I might hypothesize that we are quite far away from needing to worry about AI in the 121 world...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–U.S._RQ-170_incident

Which they said about radio operators, navigators, and engineers when all those positions went away.

Technology is exponential and while it won’t happen next year it will happen and it will go fast just like FE’s went away. It wasn’t they long ago (maybe a decade) when you needed FE to get on with FX.

Sure.....just like we went from 4 engines on ETOPS, to 3 and then to 2.

Is going from 2 to 1 REALLY a good idea?

Same thing

[QUOTE=AC560;2676066]Which they said about radio operators, navigators, and engineers when all those positions went away.

Technology is exponential and while it won’t happen next year it will happen and it will go fast just like FE’s went away. It wasn’t they long ago (maybe a decade) when you needed FE to get on with FX.[/Q

I agree with AC560 and Bahamasflyer. I remember when the B707 had the navigator, radio operator, and engineer positions. I also remember United Airlines and Western Airlines B737 having the flight engineer position.
Now the rules of how much flight time is needed and what type of flight time has made this career unpopular because it pays so little. No one is going to wait 10, 15, or 20 years for a return on their investment of a king's ransom!
Yes some cargo operators are looking into single pilot and remote control aircraft. Just a matter of time because money talks and everything else walks!