End of 2017 base/equipment seniority - Page 5 - Airline Pilot Central Forums

#41

mainlineAF , 11-14-2017 09:05 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback

Eff Dec 2017 it’s 8,200.

Thanks for pointing out the mistake.

Slice what’s your guess on when 2013 Airways guys will hold group 2 captain?

#42

Al Czervik , 11-14-2017 09:55 AM

You scratched my anchor

Quote:

Originally Posted by mainlineAF

Slice what’s your guess on when 2013 Airways guys will hold group 2 captain?

2018

Filler

#43

mainlineAF , 11-14-2017 11:00 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

2018

Filler

That’d be baller but I’m thinking early-mid 2019.

#44

sumwherelse , 11-14-2017 11:06 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mainlineAF

That’d be baller but I’m thinking early-mid 2019.

Yea I was gonna say 2020. I think 2018 is overly optimistic.

#45

aa73 , 11-14-2017 11:28 AM

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Right now Group 2 CA is around 11,000 seniority.... so one would have to figure out how long it would take a 2013 hire to get to that seniority. I’m guessing a couple of years or so, so 2019 seems about right... but that’s based on 11,000. Maybe it will drop with these new spaced out bid runs.

#46

Al Czervik , 11-14-2017 12:06 PM

You scratched my anchor

Quote:

Originally Posted by aa73

2013 is around 11,700... right?

#47

drinksonme , 11-14-2017 12:40 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

2013 is around 11,700... right?

It will be 2018 I think as well. Lots of people bypass upgrade. A younger, possible single, person will be all over it.

#48

mainlineAF , 11-14-2017 12:42 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

2013 is around 11,700... right?

Yep right at 11.7 for January 13.

#49

Sliceback , 11-14-2017 01:17 PM

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Lots and of good estimates. I’d guess early 2019 if they’re 800 numbers away right now.

#50

CaptKrunch , 11-14-2017 03:33 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback

If the 797 doesn't get launched soon something has to give. Run tired 767-300’s? Cheap end of production run 330-200’s? New 767-300’s? 787-8’s (fleet commonality benefits)? Take the 350’s and fleet shuffle the current 787-8’s into the 767’s routes (please, oh please, just do it!).

Let’s start the over/under line for when the decision will be made - I’d guess fall 2019. That is my guess for when a 350 decision has to be made which triggers secondary fleet decisions.

The Boeing MOM aircraft is in the process of being spun up now. They wouldn’t be putting together management teams and clearing space if they didn’t think there was a market. Delta, United and American all have aging 757’s will no real airframe to replace it. The 767 line is technically still open but there are only freighters scheduled for production for now, though that could be changed relatively quickly.