It has become apparent that the flow isn't going to be honored. This year we've seen hiring halts and maximum metering each month. All those "projections" used to sell new hires a 6 year ticket to AA are now looking like Monopoly money.

The seniority list that the union puts out several times a year is a really good indicator. Over the past two years, Pilot A has watched his "projected" flow date change further into the future with each publication. Last week in fact, a new list was published that essentially added an additional three months to everyone on the list. This happens regularly.

While technically not a violation, AA hired 84 in November. Envoy sent 25. If the contract was honored as written, 42 would have flowed by the close of business today. Instead, AA/Envoy chose to use the language allowing the company to send 25 per month only due to "operational necessity." It has even been stated by Envoy management that no more than 25 would flow per month in any circumstance.

With the indentured servitude one has to put in just to work at Envoy, at least if there was a light at the end of the tunnel, it might make sense to wait it out. Turns out that light was just a match the company lit and they keep walking backwards as you watch it get dim.

Envoy is very close to being in serious trouble, along with many other regionals. Forcing a new hire to upgrade before he even completes FO training is a solid statement that the company is in serious trouble trying to fill all the bodies needed to fly the airplanes and schedule AAG wants. It will be very interesting to see the new hire numbers next month now that the Endeavor TA is active.

It amazes me that they can claim operational necessity while we're expanding.

Doing the math it looks like the flow is on path slow down to 18 pilots or so a month once the senior groups of pilots clear out. Do the “projected flow date” estimates take that into account for new hires?

It should.


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Yes.......

All flow projections have always been based on flowing at the bare bones, metered amount.

If so, then the revisions were due to unforeseen circumstances. Like many of us have tirelessly been warning all along


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That latest seniority list had the most junior pilot "projected" to flow around 8 years and 2 months. That doesn't include new hires below this guy. The real number for a new hire is likely 8 years and 10 months or so. That's with ZERO hiccups.

Look at the "hiccups" this year.

September - very little AA hiring, less than 25 flow, I think it was 17
October - ZERO AA hiring, ZERO flow
November - 84 new hires, 25 flows
December - ZERO hiring, ZERO flow

I know the "projections" don't take into account the reduced and zero hiring months which continue to exacerbate the length of the flow for those on property now. If you are a 2006 or 2007 hire, you have a good chance of making it over to AA in the next 3+ years or so. Beyond that, I say all bets are off.

While I agree metering is BS! Remember the union projections also don’t take into account pilots leaving for other carriers over the last year my flow projection has moved both ways and is essentially back where it was. Now as you move up the list a smaller percentage of pilots leaving will be senior to you.

OAL attrition isn’t very reliable because it solely depends on the seniority of the pilot. But I do agree the more senior you get the less likely OAL attrition will help.


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