New Flow Realities
01-09-2018 | 06:13 PM
#101
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Not if attrition is happening in the bottom of the list. Training/probie releases, lateral moves for higher pay, short-timers (i.e. mil pilots tagging up while waiting for a major). Attrition outside of flow really stagnates as you get higher up the seniority list. People start to see AA at the end of the tunnel and get lazy.
01-09-2018 | 06:36 PM
#102
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From: Fully Retired
Not if attrition is happening in the bottom of the list. Training/probie releases, lateral moves for higher pay, short-timers (i.e. mil pilots tagging up while waiting for a major). Attrition outside of flow really stagnates as you get higher up the seniority list. People start to see AA at the end of the tunnel and get lazy.
My crystal ball says, given all these things, is a 6 - 8 year flow. YMMV
Last edited by TransWorld; 01-09-2018 at 06:50 PM.
01-09-2018 | 06:48 PM
#103
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Start with the contractual flow minimums, and treat that as best-case scenario for flow. Then add your guess for outside attrition, and there's your estimate. The union has already done that and they got around 9 years for a new hire today.
01-09-2018 | 07:41 PM
#104
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The union numbers assume no outside attrition but they also assume aa hires 12 months per year and no hiccups. I would assume there will be outside attrition but how much of that is senior to you is all that matters.
Also remember as the pilot group grows they add more flows per month to the group hired after DOS the stated goal is 3000 pilots.
Also remember as the pilot group grows they add more flows per month to the group hired after DOS the stated goal is 3000 pilots.
01-09-2018 | 08:26 PM
#106
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The union numbers assume no outside attrition but they also assume aa hires 12 months per year and no hiccups. I would assume there will be outside attrition but how much of that is senior to you is all that matters.
Also remember as the pilot group grows they add more flows per month to the group hired after DOS the stated goal is 3000 pilots.
Also remember as the pilot group grows they add more flows per month to the group hired after DOS the stated goal is 3000 pilots.
01-10-2018 | 09:11 AM
#107
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The contractual information states flows drops from 25 a month now (which is what the math is based on) with Protected Pilots to 15 a month.
Now grind into your thinking will attrition outside of flow stay the same or increase as hiring ramps up? (Be objective in your answering this question.) Again YMMV.
If you think attrition outside of flows will stay the same: 2300/((15x11)+123) = 8 years
If pilots on property continue to grow at 200 a year and there is no increase in flow, it will be about 30 years. I don’t think that is a realistic number.
Now grind into your thinking will attrition outside of flow stay the same or increase as hiring ramps up? (Be objective in your answering this question.) Again YMMV.
If you think attrition outside of flows will stay the same: 2300/((15x11)+123) = 8 years
If pilots on property continue to grow at 200 a year and there is no increase in flow, it will be about 30 years. I don’t think that is a realistic number.
01-10-2018 | 09:16 AM
#108
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Huh? What are you talking about? The 25 is the metered amount right now and 15 will be the metered amount after the PP group.
01-10-2018 | 09:22 AM
#109
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From: Fully Retired
The other difference in flow was a class cancelled when the Schoolhouse was backed up with Mad Dog Pilots getting trained for something else. By the time the Protected Pilots are done flowing, all the Mad Dogs will have been retired.
01-10-2018 | 09:30 AM
#110
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They flowed less than 25 in September (I think that was the month) due to the small class - they went with 50% in that situation. That may have been what he meant.
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