New Flow Realities
01-01-2018, 08:12 PM
#81
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 674
Originally Posted by stbloc
Few will stay for 9. That's why I don't think 9 will hold. I will guess 25% will take another path. That should drop it to 6-7. 200 year x 6 =1200 pilots.
Attrition is an unknown variable. Is 25% a realistic number? It's just impossible to tell. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, but again, every three months is (as the numbers lie right now) a year in extra flow time, making each year of hiring an extra four years to flow.
If your 25% attrition holds, that's still three years or so of added flow time for every year of hiring done at company projections.
01-02-2018, 06:04 AM
#83
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2016
Posts: 1,609
Originally Posted by Bigpimppilot
Does envoy currently grow 200 guys a year? How about next year?
01-02-2018, 06:47 AM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 687
Originally Posted by LineUpAndPay
New seniority list is on jetnet now. From the first class off 2017 to the last, there are 755 people. That blows my mind.
01-02-2018, 07:05 AM
#86
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,729
Originally Posted by moon
Man if we are so short now that we have to meter How short were we back then? Operational necessity must be a forever increasing bar we are forever behind. Don't recall a lot of cancellations back then for lack of crews.
01-02-2018, 07:35 AM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,600
Some things to consider regarding the flow...
1) Even taking an as yet unknown event into account (major war, major economic troubles etc) the facts are that mainline AA has massive retirement gaps to fill and it isn’t even clear yet how they are going to accomplish this by the early/mid 2020’s. Even if they decide to park some planes, chances are they wouldn’t have much of a need to furlough because of retirements. Any hiccups in these regards won’t really affect time to flow by any drastic amount in my opinion.
2) There will be massive amounts of turnover and attrition going forward in addition to those above you who are flowing. We haven’t even really begun seeing the real wave of retirements just yet and things are already changing rapidly (mostly for the better) in the regional industry. The flood gates will be wide open at the legacies within the next couple years. Having a 4 year degree might not even matter that much to them as everyone is in a race to hire pilots (don’t quote me on the degree part it’s just a hunch I have looking at the numbers). And this doesn’t even include any potential expansion plans at the legacies. And let’s not forget FedEx, UPS, Southwest (who recently revised UP their need for pilots due to early retirements), the LCCs who have a ton of expansion plans etc. And speaking of LCCs, once Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue get new contracts it will create a whole entire new round of “raising the bar” industry-wide and regionals will be forced to further compete for an ever-dwindling pilot supply.
I’m actually not entirely sure what will end up happening in these regards. The president of the WO I worked at has said that AA looked into absorbing the WOs a couple of years back but that, “it didn’t make sense financially”. Well that was a long while back (by airline industry standards) and much has already changed since then. There is in fact a financial tipping point to where it makes more sense bringing the WO feed in-house. We aren’t there yet, but in 2-3 years who knows? If you would have told me 2-3 years ago that regionals would be looking at rates like what Endeavor is enjoying I would have laughed at you. But it’s the new reality for them and likely will be for the WOs by mid to late 2018.
Some other relatively minor things to think about if you are considering a WO for the flow:
1) Legislative changes that may have an effect on the retirement age. I personally think that there will be an increased retirement age within the next 2-5 years. There is already a gap for most pilots when it comes to retiring at 65 and claiming Social Security benefits. That gap will only continue to widen in the coming years. That combined with an overall average lifespan increase as American’s live longer due to healthcare advances (2017 not included) AND the shortage of pilots wanting to work at regionals together with the looming massive retirements at mainline and I think raising the retirement age will be a foregone conclusion. The thing to remember about this is that it wouldn’t just affect you at an AA WO regional, but anywhere you’re at in the industry.
2) As time marches on, I believe that the legacy airlines are going to attempt to set up partnerships and more “cradle to grave” pipeline programs. We have already seen the beginnings of this at AA, Delta, and JetBlue and I believe United will likely unveil more programs like this in 2018 (they tend to lag the others in these regards). This will leave some regional airlines, “out in the cold” so to speak. AA and Delta have both said that they want to reduce the number of regional contract carriers flying for them and we are already starting to see the effects of that. I believe we will see more of this over the next couple years. United has already set up preferential hiring programs with certain regionals that it has taken a stake in and I think you will see those regionals continue to grow for United. The regionals I would be cautious of are the Trans State Holdings regionals (GoJet, TSA, and Compass), Mesa etc. I think they stand to lose contracts in the coming years. If you’re choice is between a WO or one of them I think the choice is clear. Which leads me to my next point of consideration...
3) I personally think that the old sage advice of, “pick a regional based on where you live or want to live. DO NOT COMMUTE” is beginning to come to an end to some extent. I realize that many choose a regional based on this. But I think the realities of the legacies beginning to narrow their field of view when it comes to their regional partnerships and the pipeline programs that will be growing in size will certainly serve to make it increasingly difficult to get hired off the street at a legacy if you don’t work for their regional partner. I think the new reality is that pilots should be asking themselves, “What legacy do I want to work for”? “What legacy has the bases, equipment, and flying that I want to do for 20-30 years”? Some will disagree with this but I think it’s becoming more clear that this is where we are all headed. And not to mention the relative ease of commute provided at the AA WOs or even better, the new commuter policy at Endeavor. Contract regionals will never be able to offer incentives like this.
Much will happen in the future that we can not account for right now. Just as much has happened in the recent past that many did not see coming. I think working for an AA WOs is probably one of the best options that a pilot looking to make the leap into the regional world can make right now. And at the very least, look beyond the next 5 years of your career and consider the simple fact that if you work for an AA WO you can still apply off the street and have a decent shot of getting hired almost anywhere else. Pilots at other regionals can not say the same about their chances of getting hired at AA. And if you aren’t at least considering a regional that has some sort of vested partnership or flow/interview program then you are just doing yourself a further disservice. Considering the factors that are relatively quantifiable (flow and attrition) I think that a new hire today can expect to be at mainline in 6-7 years. That’s my “best guess”. Take it for what it is!
1) Even taking an as yet unknown event into account (major war, major economic troubles etc) the facts are that mainline AA has massive retirement gaps to fill and it isn’t even clear yet how they are going to accomplish this by the early/mid 2020’s. Even if they decide to park some planes, chances are they wouldn’t have much of a need to furlough because of retirements. Any hiccups in these regards won’t really affect time to flow by any drastic amount in my opinion.
2) There will be massive amounts of turnover and attrition going forward in addition to those above you who are flowing. We haven’t even really begun seeing the real wave of retirements just yet and things are already changing rapidly (mostly for the better) in the regional industry. The flood gates will be wide open at the legacies within the next couple years. Having a 4 year degree might not even matter that much to them as everyone is in a race to hire pilots (don’t quote me on the degree part it’s just a hunch I have looking at the numbers). And this doesn’t even include any potential expansion plans at the legacies. And let’s not forget FedEx, UPS, Southwest (who recently revised UP their need for pilots due to early retirements), the LCCs who have a ton of expansion plans etc. And speaking of LCCs, once Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue get new contracts it will create a whole entire new round of “raising the bar” industry-wide and regionals will be forced to further compete for an ever-dwindling pilot supply.
I’m actually not entirely sure what will end up happening in these regards. The president of the WO I worked at has said that AA looked into absorbing the WOs a couple of years back but that, “it didn’t make sense financially”. Well that was a long while back (by airline industry standards) and much has already changed since then. There is in fact a financial tipping point to where it makes more sense bringing the WO feed in-house. We aren’t there yet, but in 2-3 years who knows? If you would have told me 2-3 years ago that regionals would be looking at rates like what Endeavor is enjoying I would have laughed at you. But it’s the new reality for them and likely will be for the WOs by mid to late 2018.
Some other relatively minor things to think about if you are considering a WO for the flow:
1) Legislative changes that may have an effect on the retirement age. I personally think that there will be an increased retirement age within the next 2-5 years. There is already a gap for most pilots when it comes to retiring at 65 and claiming Social Security benefits. That gap will only continue to widen in the coming years. That combined with an overall average lifespan increase as American’s live longer due to healthcare advances (2017 not included) AND the shortage of pilots wanting to work at regionals together with the looming massive retirements at mainline and I think raising the retirement age will be a foregone conclusion. The thing to remember about this is that it wouldn’t just affect you at an AA WO regional, but anywhere you’re at in the industry.
2) As time marches on, I believe that the legacy airlines are going to attempt to set up partnerships and more “cradle to grave” pipeline programs. We have already seen the beginnings of this at AA, Delta, and JetBlue and I believe United will likely unveil more programs like this in 2018 (they tend to lag the others in these regards). This will leave some regional airlines, “out in the cold” so to speak. AA and Delta have both said that they want to reduce the number of regional contract carriers flying for them and we are already starting to see the effects of that. I believe we will see more of this over the next couple years. United has already set up preferential hiring programs with certain regionals that it has taken a stake in and I think you will see those regionals continue to grow for United. The regionals I would be cautious of are the Trans State Holdings regionals (GoJet, TSA, and Compass), Mesa etc. I think they stand to lose contracts in the coming years. If you’re choice is between a WO or one of them I think the choice is clear. Which leads me to my next point of consideration...
3) I personally think that the old sage advice of, “pick a regional based on where you live or want to live. DO NOT COMMUTE” is beginning to come to an end to some extent. I realize that many choose a regional based on this. But I think the realities of the legacies beginning to narrow their field of view when it comes to their regional partnerships and the pipeline programs that will be growing in size will certainly serve to make it increasingly difficult to get hired off the street at a legacy if you don’t work for their regional partner. I think the new reality is that pilots should be asking themselves, “What legacy do I want to work for”? “What legacy has the bases, equipment, and flying that I want to do for 20-30 years”? Some will disagree with this but I think it’s becoming more clear that this is where we are all headed. And not to mention the relative ease of commute provided at the AA WOs or even better, the new commuter policy at Endeavor. Contract regionals will never be able to offer incentives like this.
Much will happen in the future that we can not account for right now. Just as much has happened in the recent past that many did not see coming. I think working for an AA WOs is probably one of the best options that a pilot looking to make the leap into the regional world can make right now. And at the very least, look beyond the next 5 years of your career and consider the simple fact that if you work for an AA WO you can still apply off the street and have a decent shot of getting hired almost anywhere else. Pilots at other regionals can not say the same about their chances of getting hired at AA. And if you aren’t at least considering a regional that has some sort of vested partnership or flow/interview program then you are just doing yourself a further disservice. Considering the factors that are relatively quantifiable (flow and attrition) I think that a new hire today can expect to be at mainline in 6-7 years. That’s my “best guess”. Take it for what it is!
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