Not arbitrary in the least; the ATP has had the same flight experience requirements for, at least, 60 years. The 135 IFR Flight experience for that long, too. Having an ATP to be a PILOT flying AIRLINE passengers isn’t arbitrary, either.

GF

Agree with all that, but that doesn't mean that we don't need to change all those things. We need to get the public back into flying to a greater extent in general aviation. Current CFIs won't gain many hours if the only ones they are teaching are future CFIs. That - as a model - is as unsustainable as any Ponzi scheme.

Incorrect.... the 1500 hour rule was implemented after Colgan but had nothing to do with the Colgan crash.

Sir, with all due respect, the '1500 hour rule' is a misnomer that should have been called the 'ATP rule'.
Colgan or not, I rather have an ATP rated pilot in the pointy end of the missile.

I guess I’m curious as to your perspective on the “pilot shortage?” Clearly airlines are feeling some kind of burden — is this because they got used to pulling in 250 FO’s or is this because people decided flying for an airline wasn’t worth the investment in the higher-than-average cost of education, followed by years of experience-building? Or do you see it as something else?


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Yes.

Requiring an ATP or R-ATP for 121 first officers did create a barrier of entry that restricted the supply of brand new, entry-level first officers available to regional airlines.

That, IMO, has less of an impact on "starts" of new aspiring professional pilots than the following:

1. career progression stagnation due to 121 mandatory retirement age change from 60 to 65 beginning Dec 2007,
2. Great Recession,
3. legacy airlines' whipsaw of regional carriers in mid-late 00s centered around rock-bottom costs,
4. legacy airline bankruptcy proceedings which decimated major airline compensation/retirement

Those four factors in concert made the cost/benefit for many aspiring pilots unappealing. Why would somebody incur $80k+ in debt for a college degree and flight training, only to slave for 4-5 years at a regional airline making $21-40k/yr while commuting or living in an expensive large metro area, then upgrade and only make $65-75k with no significant growth OR attrition at legacy carriers to create the "big sucking sound" pulling pilots upwards? And when you do finally "make it", you likely won't crack six figures until year 3-4, all the while pilots are getting older, having families, and trying to live their lives?

The juice just wasn't worth the squeeze for a while if you weren't already involved and invested.

Today, the situation is quite a bit different. Dec 2012 kicked off the delayed retirement wave which has yet to fully manifest itself, so with attrition from pilots going upward hurting retention and the entry barrier of holding an ATP hurting recruitment, regional airlines have been squeezed due to staffing. To cap this off, most regionals are operating under fixed fee-for-departure capacity lift agreements with their legacy partners which basically means opportunity to pass along increased crew costs (necessary to recruit qualified pilots and retain existing pilots) to their partners is nearly nonexistent, impacting profitability and possibly the ability to remain a going concern.

This regional airline economic reality is arguably the fault of the very legacy airlines who squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezed their regional lift a decade (or less) ago as far as they could to minimize costs.

The high cost of low overhead is coming home to roost - leading legacy airlines to increasingly in-source via smaller narrowbody growth as total regional aircraft in service decrease. And this is a good trend that we ALL should hope continues.

BoilerUP,

I’d agree with the stagnation story UNTIL I met many corporate jet guys who learned to fly during the last 15-20 years, got jobs (admittedly in the NYC area) flying bizjets and never looked back. They were making pretty big money and working while others were beotching about stagnation. Yes, if you were hired at a regional, all excited to be a wet commercial with 251 hours flying a jet, stagnation meant you didn’t get the 767 seat you thought you deserved. Others worked on their careers, improved their resumes, and did well.

GF

I left my regional in November 2007 for a 91 job flying a Citation.

Dec 2007 Age 65 happens, Sept 2008 Lehman Bros happens, Great Recession starts and nearly all airlines stagnate.

Many, MANY 91 operations shut down over the next 2-4 years while Netjets furloughs hundreds.

I was promoted to CP in March 2008 at the age of 24 and was fortunate my company had long contracts, so we took delivery of a new plane in 2009 from the factory and hit block hour records in 2009, 2010 and 2011. I wasn't getting wealthy, but I was flying a brand-new jet as PIC while being a 'kid'. In the 2012-2013 range, I interviewed for two different large-cabin 91 operators and wasn't hired by either, as I "only flew a CJ"...but that experience helped me get hired by a major cargo carrier in 2014.

Did I stagnate? No...but I know lots and lots and lots of others that did, flying 121 regional and major and legacy and cargo and plenty of others that went through the job loss merry-go-round of 91/91K/135.

Sure it did. Placating Congress and the public is one of our Industry’s most important tasks. There’s no business like show business.

There already was an ATP rated pilot sitting up front.