Quote:
Originally Posted by midnightshuttle
Breaking from AMZ was a good move, one that UPS cant sustain. I just wouldn’t be on they bottom on their seniority list for the next couple years. Actually as for as that goes I probably wouldn’t do brown either.
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Many non factual statements. While Purple will be just fine, yes, short term pain will happen and seniority progression will slow a bit.
Brown? I believe you are wrong. Having a smaller fleet, there is little room to shrink, especially when your money maker is the faster products, as evidenced by the last few 10Q’s. Because we are a smaller flight fleet, we have been playing catch up for a while. Still have 30+ net new airplanes coming in the next 3 years, plus averaging 100+ mandatory retirements per year (not counting early outs), the math is easy to see. Fedex staffs their airline different, they like more pilots per plane (good for them!!). UPS staffs bare bones. I believe seniority progression short to medium term will be slightly better at Brown for these reasons, long term (5+ years) is anyone’s guess.
My biggest concern with either Brown or Purple sustaining revenue growth. It has been 5%+ per year for the last decade, don’t know how long that can be sustained even with e-commerce growth. Purple did have an acquisition push, non organic revenue growth (TNT), skewing somewhat the numbers.