320 FO - 62% company wide (47% in junior bases).
767 FO - 90% company wide (89% junior base).
G4 FO - unable. At the current rate it will be 4 yrs and 10 months and late summer 2019.
CA - at the current rate it will be 5 yrs and 1 month to upgrade.

The train has exited the tunnel and is approaching the station.

Love your work slice. But what exactly is this showing?

I think it’s data for someone hired in Nov 2013, which is when off the street hiring started at AA. I’m at 4.5yrs and those are pretty close to the numbers I’m looking at. Both CA and group 4 FO are around 5yrs and within a couple months of each other.

It's the ability of a guy hired four years ago to hold different seats and an estimate of when he can hold seats currently above his seniority.

As retirements increase those time periods should reduce. In the last four yrs roughly 1950 known retirements were forecast. In the next fours years it's about 2950-3000. Basically that shifts all of the data points I posted about a year sooner for a late 2018 new hire vs a late 2014 new hire. The large increase in retirements is throwing some of the old rules of thumb, at least in the short term, out the window. Guys getting hired now will initially have faster advancement than the guys hired four years ago. But obviously the guys hired four years ago will always be ahead of them.

The junior CA seniority dropped over a 605 numbers in a year after adjusting for the seniority change. Basically the same number as retirements. Which means I screwed up the projected CA upgrade date. It's more like 6 yrs +/- a month instead of 5 yrs and a month.

The increase is retirements will make future advancements quicker until the upgrade time is past the peak retirement years. I'd guess the cross-over estimate for that is 2019-2020 for new hires. Instead of having a 5 yr upgrade they'll revert to six years, then seven, etc. Looking at the difference between the bottom guy and the junior CA and it's about 3700 numbers. So a guy hired in five years (2023) is still looking at about 7 yrs to advance 3700 numbers. That's for the junior guy and most won't take that opportunity so their upgrade time will be longer. But it will be nothing like the last decade when it reached 17 yrs +/-.

I was looking at late 2014 DOH's. But I screwed up the upgrade time. It's closer to 6 yrs instead of five years.

Talking with a late 2014 new hire the other day and we were talking about his future opportunities. That is what caused me to look into the numbers. He could be a decent n/b line holder, or 767 reserve, but already positioning himself, due to the two year training lock-ins, for the G4 FO vs CA upgrade. At the two year mark.

The advancements is like the mid and late 1980's all over again. Crazy. But the difference is back then it was based on growth. Now it's based on retirements which is a much better, and reliable, forecast.

It's basic research to answer questions or topics guys bring up or I get curious about. I figure if they, or I, am asking the question someone else might be also. So I post it.

But it can't be that great if it leaves the reader confused!

The cannon has finally fired!

Good stuff Slice

If flying remains flat and there is no increase in mandatory retirement in the next five years. I believe more flying will go regional and 67 or 68 will become the new max. One will mandate the other and satisfy the flying publics needs. Don't shoot the messenger but I see it coming. Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

Delta does not agree with you... Reference the massive A220 order (along with the 717s) flown by mainline, while they continue parking 50 seaters. All these new mainline aircraft are mostly flying previous RJ routes.

Meanwhile Doogie keeps ordering new 175s, thus supporting your theory.

Only way more flying goes to regionals is if APA votes in more scope relief in to the next contract....