“From a regional perspective it may be easy to say, especially today, “H€|| I’ll gladly go to the first major that calls and then use THAT major as a stepping stone to where I REALLY want to go, but that begs the question of where you do REALLY want to go and realize after a few years seniority is going to pretty well lock you in to where you sit if you sit there very long”

Implies to not go to the first one that calls. Turning down any mainline offer and hanging out at a regional hoping Cinderella calls is a bad idea. Nothing wrong with positioning yourself and trying harder for the one you like best, but I think you vastly over-estimate the amount of choice the average regional pilot has in who calls first.

I think you misread the intention. It means what I said, no more and no less. It does not instruct anyone to turn down any offer. But as noted above, junior people in their first couple years at a major ONCE THEY’VE MADE IT THERE frequently have offers from other majors. They are in fact fairly mobile at that point, up until they have accrued enough seniority to be invested in that particular airline.

My intention was to suggest that people pay attention - now that various business models are under stress - to see what happens with the various majors. Because, yeah, a lot of guys at the legacies are probably now wishing they’d taken that offer from SWA right now

I feel like Excargodog’s point is, and correct me if I’m wrong, that some people only get infatuated with one place?

Kind of like someone being crazy over some ex that cheated on them when there are so many others out there. I feel many of the people I flew with in the regionals wanted to move on, but there were quite a few at mine who definitely weren’t moving as well. They had offers at other places but were comfortable with their QOL. Their choice, but boy they’re on the streets now... yikes.

With all that said... for most people, in the long run/grand scheme, it's better to be furloughed from a major than employed by a regional. Obvious exceptions for those over 50, GED and no other skills, stay-at-home spouse w/kids, etc.

It's hard enough as it is to move up, without trying to guesstimate if the economy/industry will hold up for 3-4 years after your class date.

I frankly wouldn't trade my somewhat junior number for the job security of my old regional gig.

Trust me..... If you're afraid of failure, you'll never succeed.

I clearly did not communicate what I intended to communicate. I never intended to communicate that one should turn down an offer from a major - any major - to continue on at a regional. There MAY be cases where that would be appropriate, a few very senior pilots with not that many years before they turn 65 or some social or economic reason compelling them to stay at their regional domicile, but economically such a course of action would make no sense for the vast majority. And while COVID is hammering a lot of people’s career prospects currently, this too will pass. Even the Spanish Flu burnt itself out in two years. And the COVID caused disruption has discouraged a lot of people From going in to the career field so I truly expect the pilot shortage to be back even if the economic effects of the COVID lockdowns delay it five years.

What I WAS advocating was that regional pilots educate themselves about what is going on at different majors because, yes, there IS a narrow window of flexibility for the first couple years at a major when junior people DO change employers (I know several former VX acquaintances who bailed from Alaska after they were acquired and other junior FOs who bailed to freight or to/from SWA. It really does happen. And I believe many if not most of the younger regional people ARE going to get an offer to a major once we are fully recovered, be that in two years or ten and - yeah, they are going to take it, because fir the vast majority any major will be better than any regional.

But at that time they will have all the things on their resume that let them get that job to begin with and then immediately add a new type-rating and major experience. And when that happens they will have the narrow window of opportunity - a few years at most - before seniority locks them in to the airline they are at for a career, or at least for as long as that airline exists.
But the world is changing and some business models are adapting better than others.

Don’t get emotionally locked in to yesterday’s winner when the paradigm shifts. Watch what is happening today.

How specifically are regionals worse than majors other than a much smaller paycheck of course?

Depends on the regional I suppose. Envoy, well this could be a long list but I will just start with a few.

1. Significantly better pay.
2. Significantly better qol
3. Significantly better schedules
4. Significantly less hostility from management
5. Significantly better union in terms of being able to actually defend their pilots. Our current MEC is doing a fine job, but we only have so much power at the end of the day.
6. Better jump seat privileges on the routes that actually matter.
7. Duty Rigs
8. Min Day Guarantee
9. Better per diem
10. Meals

I could go on. Its not worth it though. Mainline is far and away the better option.

When was the last time a major airline ceased operations and put seniority #1 on the street? How many regionals have shut down since that time

Yes, that was definitely a dilemma for many middle/bottom-tier major pilots (and even a few top-tier hires)... whether to keep reaching for the next rung or settle in for the long haul.

No one-size-fits-all answer, but I would say that almost any major pax job is pretty good gig so unless you're very young it's an iffy proposition to risk it all for something somewhat better.

Some majors honored new-hire classes for a month or so after covid (to protect those who had already resigned from previous gigs), while at the same they did NOT allow some of their own pilots to rescind resignations which had been dropped immediately after covid. There were some major (even some legacy) pilots who went from several years (or more) seniority to on the street with their top-tier class dates cancelled (and pools quickly flushed in some cases). The lucky ones: FDX/UPS new-hires.

Every move in this industry carries risk... training failures, background check issues, and of course straight-up bad timing due to black swans like covid and 9/11. Avoiding unnecessary lateral/diagonal moves will probably enhance your overall career stability, at some point it's just career risk vs. greed.