I'm suggesting that the current situation is really bad for everyone. American's spreadsheet is the worst, no doubt about it. But if things get so bad that AA folds and is sold off, do you realize what shape the other legacies will be in??

There is a lot at stake for many very large and powerful stakeholders here. AA tanking does a hell of a lot more than take out the 135,000 jobs, it's hundreds of aircraft orders that prop up an already-ailing US manufacturing giant you may have heard of - not to mention the stake airbus has in AAs survival.

Anyway, all this to say that it's clear management (read: Doug and his 2.3 million AA shares) isn't aiming for a strategic bankruptcy. That said, they'll be forced to do it if they hit the magic liquidity number (prob ~$8 billion).

I really believe that everything depends on this summer. If demand sucks and we don't stop the bleeding for a few months, they'll more than likely file chapter 11. Deal with the debt, come for our throats, etc etc. If the summer isn't half bad, vaccination programs get off the ground and things start opening up, things are going to be just fine. It's not about offending me as you say, it's just too early to tell if we'll go into chapter 11, and you're arguing for chapter 7. It's kind of nonsense

Lol that is great, hadn't seen that before.

I agree. This summer is critically important to the entire industry, Legacies, most of all. After 9/11, the same thing happened where everyone was expecting USAir to fail and be parted out, then Delta Pilots were down bidding to the 737 during our BK, thinking if we got parted out, the 737 fleet would be sold with the pilots, Pan Am style. When the dust settled, 5-6 years later, we were all making a lot less, but no airline went CH 7, or got parted out. And remember there was much less Government aid last time too, and the economy was entering recession status.

If we, as an industry, can get a good strong, summer under our belt, and the economy isn’t too damaged by the end of summer, most will be vaccinated and unafraid to fly again. The fall may be slow as people put their lives back together again but by holiday time 2021, I think demand will be back to better than break even and will continue to improve from there.

My opinion only.

The "Legacy" term seems to have different meanings to different people.

Per the textbook definition (inter-state ops prior to deregulation) there are five remaining: AA, DL, UA, AS, HA

Those have some mostly common traits: All have regional feed. All but one do (over-water) international ops.

WN is excluded on the technicality that they didn't operate outside of TX before deregulation. But it's also a different animal with no regional feed and no (overwater) international. I'd consider SWA to be the king of domestic and LCC... and obviously big enough to have an impact on the legacies (especially AS and now HA)..

But WHEN things get so bad that AA folds and is sold off, do you realize what shape the other legacies THAT WONT EXIST will be in??

FIFY

You might recall the government let the Lehman Brothers go under before Merrill Lynch, AIG, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bradford & Bingley, Fortis, Hypo and Alliance & Leicester all came within a whisker of doing so and had to be rescued.

Don’t bet they’ve learned their lesson.

No,I’m not expecting any major airline to go Chapter 7, but the government allowing one to go Chapter 11, pour encourager les autres before bailing them out, is entirely a possibility.

buddy...........theres not even gonig to be an airlines regional or otherwise.

Now I see why there are so many electric scooters in all the cities. I think nono. might be onto something.



Do not forget all the horse and carriage setups during the holidays. If only I could invest in this great idea of nono’s. Air travel will be a thing of the past, just like the internet.

All doom and gloom, because collecting coupon debt and bleeding through liquidity places them in more strategic situation right? You must be related to Domino.

No, but lack of hiring and no growth results in industry stagnation. Don’t take my word for it. Search these forums and see just how much hiring at the majors happened from 2001 - 2014.

The end is near.