If money supply increases faster than real output, it will cause inflation. In other words, If there is more money chasing the same amount of goods, firms will just increase prices.

Does that sound familiar right now?

Hyperinflation is a totally different topic. Price of a good increases 50%+ in a day will never be the result of the feds printing too much paper.

If we have a shortage of goods, resulting in consumer panic (mom buys 15 gallons of milk on single grocery run due to fear of supply shortage) that could create a hyperinflation event. We are currently having supply issues, and it’s getting worse, that’s what I’m more fearful of.

Thankfully, the last time we had morons hoarding toilet paper in fear, a shortage in supply wasn’t actually an issue.

What I am saying is the extra money is NOT chasing more goods. If the money is either put in savings or used to pay down debt, you do not have the situation you are saying. This is velocity of money slowing.

Spending of that extra money is NOT occurring. People have been socking it away, based on reports from the Fed.

Short term inflation will occur when the supply of goods has reduced compared to two years ago. (Such as the shortage of chips.) Chip manufacturing capacity did not reduce. When the supply chain gets back in gear and suppliers resume manufacturing at previous levels, this short term price increase will ease. They will come back down. We are seeing this with lumber prices, right now. Supply prices of lumber for housing is starting to ease.

Now, the Fed can screw this up by jacking up the overnight interest rates, inverting the yield curve, throwing the country into a recession. The government can screw this up by massive spending, which indeed is inflationary. Those two not withstanding, what I said above should occur.

I am not saying this. My large, successful investment management firm, with lots of sound research, is saying this. They have a track record that is better at predicting what is going to happen than the talking heads you see.

Tell that to the Weimar Republic, or the people in Zimbabwe

Inflation can be both price inflation or monetary supply inflation. Monetary supply inflation always causes price inflation.

Only if the velocity of money stays high. If people quit spending it, thus velocity goes down significantly, then the result is not inflationary over the long term.

Hiring Numbers from September:

One of the interview prep companies sent out an email with an update today with the number of pilots hired in September.

Allegiant: 16
American: 80
Atlas: 30
Delta: 71
FedEx: 55
Frontier: 42
JetBlue: 72
Spirit: 48
United: 181
UPS: 53

Total: 647

This is the most pilots ever hired by the majors in a single month. Ever!

Note that Southwest isn't even on the list as they have not started hiring yet.

Ah yes, I remember when Zimbabwe was the center of the global financial system.

Say you know nothing about economics without saying you know nothing about economics.

I see so many pilots in all of these groups complaining about not getting the call from the legacy airlines yet.


Here are a couple questions:


How often are you updating your applications? At least 3-4 times per month?

Have you had your application and resume reviewed?

Have you attended a job fair? How about the one this past weekend?

Have you been networking to get several letters of recommendation?



For anyone that is serious about going to a legacy airline but hasn't been called yet, how was the RTAG convention in San Diego this weekend. Each person in line got to have at least 10 minutes "face time" with the recruiters at AA and they went over your resume with you. If it all looked good, they took your name for an upcoming interview.

United also gave you plenty of time with recruiters and many were told to expect a Hogan invite in the next couple weeks.

Were you there?

Love this post.

Do the work, get the results

For someone who wasn’t able to make it, any word from any of the Majors/ULCCs of hiring mil guys with rATP off the street?