Major Airline Hiring 2020
10-14-2021, 08:29 AM
#101
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
Originally Posted by FlyGuy2021
According to RST, more than 40% of all people who interview with Delta have job offers already at other major airlines.
The days of "go to the major airline that calls" is quickly coming to an end.
The days of "go to the major airline that calls" is quickly coming to an end.
10-14-2021, 08:37 AM
#102
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
My personal favorite wildcard scenario is massive domestic widebody deployment to support upgauging the entire operation.
Also current widebodies are optimized for long-haul cruise so they are inefficient for shorter flights.
If traffic congestion got to the point where slot limits prevented more frequency the you might see widebody's optimized for short-haul.
10-14-2021, 09:01 AM
#103
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2019
Posts: 1,077
Originally Posted by Castle Bravo
Because when the Majors are faced with their own contraction due to staffing issues...they could care less about the minor leagues. And we won't reach peak retirements until 2025 and beyond! Lets say Major X loses 1,000 pilots in a year to mandatory retirement. To keep the status quo schedule, at a minimum they have to hire 1000 new pilots. Thus (roughly) 800 pilots are hired from the regionals (rest from Mil/135). They will decimate the regionals to maintain the status quo at the Major. They will "do whatever it takes" to keep their own selves afloat! Survival of the fittest, Darwinism, whatever you want to call it.
The real problem is FOs. The regionals can (and are) hiring FOs like crazy, but they legally can't become a CA until they reach 1000 hrs Pt 121. And you can't achieve that if your planes are parked due to CA attrition. Then the Majors will start poaching highly qualified FOs. Now the regional is getting robbed from the top and the bottom, and the hub and spoke system deteriorates. We just can't produce enough FOs fast enough unless Congress makes changes to the 1500 hr rule, the 1000 hr/2500TT CA rule, etc, I think the puppy mill flight universities will need to graduate kids in 3 yrs vice 4. But even that will be too late.
If the airline industry wants to maintain it's current level of capacity (assuming demand remains level) we will need a WWII style production effort...Reduce minimum required hours, reduce graduation time at the Univ's, raise ticket prices for pax, increase domestic wide body flying to make up for loss of regional capacity, yada yada yada.
Oh, and don't forget, the Military can turn off the spigot with Stop Loss any time they choose.
The real problem is FOs. The regionals can (and are) hiring FOs like crazy, but they legally can't become a CA until they reach 1000 hrs Pt 121. And you can't achieve that if your planes are parked due to CA attrition. Then the Majors will start poaching highly qualified FOs. Now the regional is getting robbed from the top and the bottom, and the hub and spoke system deteriorates. We just can't produce enough FOs fast enough unless Congress makes changes to the 1500 hr rule, the 1000 hr/2500TT CA rule, etc, I think the puppy mill flight universities will need to graduate kids in 3 yrs vice 4. But even that will be too late.
If the airline industry wants to maintain it's current level of capacity (assuming demand remains level) we will need a WWII style production effort...Reduce minimum required hours, reduce graduation time at the Univ's, raise ticket prices for pax, increase domestic wide body flying to make up for loss of regional capacity, yada yada yada.
Oh, and don't forget, the Military can turn off the spigot with Stop Loss any time they choose.
10-14-2021, 09:01 AM
#104
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Originally Posted by rickair7777
If traffic congestion got to the point where slot limits prevented more frequency the you might see widebody's optimized for short-haul.
this will not last long enough to shape aircraft orders. But if narrow bodies have to pick up regional lift, it seems like widebodies get a bigger role in domestic work. Presumably transcons, NY > FL, CA>Hawaii.
10-14-2021, 02:24 PM
#107
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by Jptaviation
I live in Orlando. What regional would be my best bet for commuting back home to the family ? I’m 150 short of 1500 so I’m getting close.
Oh, and find a better thread for this post. Not really the topic of this one.
10-15-2021, 05:28 PM
#108
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Joined APC: Apr 2019
Posts: 148
Yeah I don’t think it’s going to be this crazy for years and years to come. Everyone just realized they need to jump on pilots now. For example between now and the end of 2022 AA “plans” to hire approximately 2500 pilots. The 3 peak years 2024-2026 we retire about 2400 combined… AA hires like this for 2-3 years they have covered their retirements until almost 2030. I’m sure Delta and United’s hiring/retirement numbers look the same. It’s going to be triage mode for a while but it’s not going to be 5-10 years of absurd hiring numbers.
10-15-2021, 05:35 PM
#109
New Hire
Joined APC: Oct 2021
Position: Student Pilot
Posts: 9
Originally Posted by Tjeff
Yeah I don’t think it’s going to be this crazy for years and years to come. Everyone just realized they need to jump on pilots now. For example between now and the end of 2022 AA “plans” to hire approximately 2500 pilots. The 3 peak years 2024-2026 we retire about 2400 combined… AA hires like this for 2-3 years they have covered their retirements until almost 2030. I’m sure Delta and United’s hiring/retirement numbers look the same. It’s going to be triage mode for a while but it’s not going to be 5-10 years of absurd hiring numbers.
10-15-2021, 07:38 PM
#110
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Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,001
Originally Posted by fxpanda
…so, assuming one is just starting flight training from zero hours at this very moment, the big wave will most likely be gone by the time one is in a position to be able to apply at the majors, correct?
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
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