Major Airline Hiring 2020
10-15-2021, 08:00 PM
#111
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,948
Originally Posted by Tjeff
Yeah I don’t think it’s going to be this crazy for years and years to come. Everyone just realized they need to jump on pilots now. For example between now and the end of 2022 AA “plans” to hire approximately 2500 pilots. The 3 peak years 2024-2026 we retire about 2400 combined… AA hires like this for 2-3 years they have covered their retirements until almost 2030. I’m sure Delta and United’s hiring/retirement numbers look the same. It’s going to be triage mode for a while but it’s not going to be 5-10 years of absurd hiring numbers.
For the rest of the decade, Boeing has gone on the record forecasting 6,000 per year for the US, on average. That is retirements, early outs, and growth.
Not as much as 2022, but repeated hiring that is enough to suck the regional pool dry.
10-15-2021, 08:12 PM
#112
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 342
Originally Posted by TOGALOCK
Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
10-15-2021, 08:48 PM
#113
New Hire
Joined APC: Oct 2021
Position: Student Pilot
Posts: 9
Originally Posted by TOGALOCK
Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
10-16-2021, 05:52 AM
#114
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,219
Just look at the retirements for the various legacy airlines. United for instance really hits it’s big retirement wave around 2030. Considering forecast increases in demand, airport congestion, passenger comfort demands, environmental factors, and fuel cost, the legacies will be meeting those demands by flying more flights with larger aircraft. The 50 seat aircraft will age out in the next 10 years (unless a cost effective replacement that meets scope requirements is produced), the 70/76 seat aircraft will remain with the regionals, and increased employment opportunities will be at companies providing better pay. I also think that pay will have to increase at the entry level positions to attract new pilots to this industry. The freight world is also facing the same demands and will be competing for pilots. This industry has always been very volatile with no guarantees, but for those willing to do the work, there should continue to be jobs out there. It might not be the fast track to easy money that some people luck into, but if you can check the boxes that top paying employers want and you learn to interview well, there should be light at the end of the tunnel. Just keep in mind that the roller coaster doesn’t end until you retire.
10-16-2021, 12:28 PM
#115
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 29
Originally Posted by TOGALOCK
Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Retirements are going to go fairly strong well into the early 2030's. How could someone hired in 2021-2022 not be at the front?
10-16-2021, 12:42 PM
#116
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Originally Posted by JabroniJohn
Just curious how you figure that people hired at legacies today aren't at the front of the hiring wave?
Retirements are going to go fairly strong well into the early 2030's. How could someone hired in 2021-2022 not be at the front?
Retirements are going to go fairly strong well into the early 2030's. How could someone hired in 2021-2022 not be at the front?
The several years pre-covid saw significant hiring.
The theory would be that this is the start of a couple years of Vne hiring and with the airlines competing to stockpile pilots and it will taper in a few years.
This is somewhat definitional, but it’s sort of a “anymore widebody captains for 2040 left to be hired?” The answer may be no.
10-16-2021, 02:56 PM
#117
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2019
Posts: 148
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
The several years pre-covid saw significant hiring.
The theory would be that this is the start of a couple years of Vne hiring and with the airlines competing to stockpile pilots and it will taper in a few years.
This is somewhat definitional, but it’s sort of a “anymore widebody captains for 2040 left to be hired?” The answer may be no.
The theory would be that this is the start of a couple years of Vne hiring and with the airlines competing to stockpile pilots and it will taper in a few years.
This is somewhat definitional, but it’s sort of a “anymore widebody captains for 2040 left to be hired?” The answer may be no.
Yes I know all the caveats with the industry* purely posting the actual numbers.
10-16-2021, 04:37 PM
#119
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 216
Originally Posted by TOGALOCK
Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.
Last edited by Rmk1991; 10-16-2021 at 04:39 PM. Reason: Punctuation
10-16-2021, 04:51 PM
#120
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2019
Posts: 148
Originally Posted by Rmk1991
I'll disagree and say it completely depends on how old you are. I was a few years into a rapidly growing major and recently left to a legacy. For the first half of my career I'll end up at about even but the second half I'm going to end up far more senior than I would had I stayed at the major due to everyone being so dang young. If this is about AA specifically then I stand corrected as I'm not there. However you did say 'legacies.'
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