If the age 67 bill sponsor gets their way, flow will shut down Jan 1 when the new retirement age goes into affect. It probably won’t happen that early (which may be part of why the new pay rates expire in 2024) but applicants and flows are on borrowed time before hiring clamps down for 2 additional years.

At AA, we have had over 100 pilots retire early so far this year. Of those that remain on the list until 65, about half are on disability. Only about 50% actually fly the line at age 65.

Personally, I hope it does extend to 67. I will be out on disability from age 64 on anyways. Free money during my golden years.

Age 67 wont really help things as much as the idiot from South Carolina thinks.

They aren’t just going to freeze hiring for 2 years. They might throttle back to hiring at a “normal” pace instead of grabbing every body they can find. All the majors were planning on hiring for the foreseeable future. Age 67 won’t change that.
Now recession, war, pandemic, or some other insanity could always muck things up, but age 67 on its own will have only a minor impact IMHO.

You are fear mongering. This won’t affect that many people that can and want to stay any longer than they do.

Look at what age 60-65 plus a recession did to the industry last time around… The recession is here. Isom inc. are already talking about their plan to park airplanes and shrink the airline to future demand if it goes down in their latest earnings call Q&A session. Add a 2 year increase in retirement age on top of that if it happens… it may not end up being lost decade bad but there’s going to be a lot of folks stuck at regionals for 2 additional years on top of the 18+ months they got stuck during the Covid hiring freeze.

”Stuck” at regionals?

Right now there are FOs being hired from regionals by majors that in the past probably 40 years would have never been considered. Five years ago it was taking six years at a regional to make even make captain.

Most pilots that got into the industry in the last five years will easily have 35-40 year careers at majors. Completely ELIMINATING mandatory retirement would change that by six months on average. Less than 25% of those at 65 now would make it another two years. This would be an inconsequential blip in a long career.

Anyone worried about a few extra months or even years where they are obviously haven’t put in enough to know what perspective really is.

Yes, stuck as in to be fixed in a particular position or unable to move or be moved, or remain in a static condition; fail to progress.

WO pilots were stuck at their regionals during Covid for 18 months when AA stopped hiring and shut down the flow. This will happen again if AA executes a plan to shrink the airline while the age 67 transition is occurring. The idea to postpone flow at the start of a recession with a political movement to extend the retirement age by two years is a terrible one.

So not to be argumentative, pre COVID people were talking 7-9 years to FLOW or get to majors, but the most recent CBA has a 5 year expectation actually written into the language (although they could still delay flow but would have to give 20 yr CA pay during delay). How do you see that whole thing working out? It effectively eliminated 15 yrs of the CA pay band. Just a guess, but maybe flow will actually be around 5 years (or maybe they will bump to 20 yr pay and give a seniority number?)

If someone selects “no” to flow at their wholly owned, they don’t get the top pay scale, so with the $100k flow bonus there’s really not a lost earnings by not going to AA.

Listening to the latest earnings call, management expects WO staffing to be be full within 2 years ending the need for the pay scale escalation. At that point someone will be making what they’d make as an FO at AA without the 16% DC.

AA isn’t making money on their flying, it’s all the co-branded credit cards making profits so if demand shrinks 10% they’ll cut mainline flying by 10% (IIRC that’s the # management threw out in the Q&A). That’s 1500 pilots, or 18 months of retirements that wouldn’t be needed so I’d they don’t furlough or offer early outs, they could just stop hiring for 18 months. If age 67 passes they could stop hiring for 36 months during a period of reduced demand.

The last 18 months AA stopped hiring, things were pretty miserable at the WO, which is why so many pilots left in 2021/2022. With age 67, the ability to leave the WO will be stifled as everywhere else has reduced hiring needs as well.

The last 18 months that you refer to that “AA stopped hiring” NOBODY was hiring and things were miserable EVERYWHERE. You’re comparing apples to oranges.

There is also a hiring bubble right now that was created by those 18 months of not hiring. That is what has created the current opportunities. You’re right though. In the next 24 months, hiring will return to more manageable levels and things will even out, which will mean no more regional FOs hires by mainlines, so yes, the regionals will fill again.