Originally Posted by Cujo665

ive told you, same as I said years ago. This will lead to buyouts, mergers, bankruptcies and consolidations. The WO are able to run their regionals at a loss to keep the feed into/out of the hubs as long as it keeps those mainline flights filled. They can - and will - improve flow and I’d say they may go as high as 80%-85% of all hires come from their WO.
they could increase CPA FFD rates to keep their vendors able to staff, but I consider this unlikely without the other big two raising their FFD rates also….. it’s easier to just buy the company, planes, pilots, equipment and all before or during the bankruptcy.

I’ve been saying this since 2013 that we were around 5-6 years away from a crisis. Covid delayed it 2 years.

They’re going to need age 67, and to start not just paying more, but having significant improvements to working conditions. This modern generation can make $5k-$10k a month with various online sales and automated marketing stuff that I’ll admit I just don’t get. Why commute on days off to crashpads sitting airport standby after having spent $175k-$250k getting your ratings and experience to make less than $90k at the best paying regional, and around $40k at the worst.

there is also the possibility of merging mainline with a consolidated owned regional. With the rates they’re paying now it would be cheaper. Folks would also take the $90 an hour to fly the E175 as the entry level AA jet, because they’d be actual APA pilots instead of waiting to flow. The closer the costs get, the less attractive maintaining 4 separate administrations and training departments becomes. We almost sold them on single list back in 2013-2014; with some effort it should be a much easier sell now.

Originally Posted by pitchattitude

The current rates are temporary and unsustainable. But the whole reason AAG is throwing money at the regionals is to keep them going. In 18 months or so when this hiring crisis has subsided the regional ranks will start filling again as the hiring of most non captain regional pilots will dry up. AAG sees that the regional model will still sustain and save them money as long as they can keep that core of qualified instructors through this period. As far as increasing flow, don’t expect to see a significant change. There will probably be some at some point as AA and the WOs come to an equilibrium between keeping captains and LCAs long enough to sustain things and paying them for too long to do that. I think they will try and manage that five years to flow a lot better, but it is such a moving target, or will be difficult. As long as they can get flow to around six years, I think they’ll be happy.

Originally Posted by Cujo665

Flow costs them zero and if done correctly will fill the seats. The shortage will last more than 5 years too, closer to 10 actually.

Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB

If WO RJ flying is brought into Mainline, it will trigger all sorts of scope issues with every other work group. Way cheaper to keep regional pay for ramp, mtc, fa’s, gate agents, dispatch, etc

Originally Posted by highfarfast

I used to agree with you, and in a sense, maybe I still do.

However, at some point you cross a threshold where it’s no longer cheaper. That said even if it’s not cheaper, maybe management thinks it’s cheap enough to ride out the problem with temporary wage hikes so as to preserve the regional model for the future.


Also, add to the list maintenance personal that are in a shortage and probably shouldn’t be grouped up there with rampers, fa’s, and gate agents.

Originally Posted by NoValueAviator

It seems to me that if the plan was just to roll us into mainline (which would instantly bottle attrition forever obviously), they'd have done that instead of pouring money on us. Nobody was talking about pay really, most of the noise was about mainline seniority numbers just prior to the pilot supply premium era.

Originally Posted by NoValueAviator

It seems to me that if the plan was just to roll us into mainline (which would instantly bottle attrition forever obviously), they'd have done that instead of pouring money on us. Nobody was talking about pay really, most of the noise was about mainline seniority numbers just prior to the pilot supply premium era.

Originally Posted by Da Magic

Just wondering if anyone that’s due to flow in the next few months will forgo or wait a few months to make that decision?

Asked a different way: Is the money worth it to stay at envoy vs losing a few months of seniority at AA?