Alaska buying Hawaiian airlines.

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Quote: Apparently AAG has already slashed a QX presence in Hawaii. I think the concern is a lack of heavy maintenance on the islands and the need for ferry tanks. Sure would be nice to have 30+ turboprops to use. They seem to have been a great fit for the job. Oh well.
I thought the reasoning there was that they can't haul enough cargo. Inter-island cargo is good revenue.
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Quote: I thought the reasoning there was that they can't haul enough cargo. Inter-island cargo is good revenue.
Cargo is a big driver for interisland flying. Anything smaller than a 717 wouldn’t be practical in that sense. Also, where are you gonna park all those turboprops or small regional jets? The turn times would be very similar so you would have the same frequency with less overall seat capacity.
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Gate space is a big issue, particularly on the neighbor islands.
The 717's fly 150+ flights a day, lots of travel for connections as well as workers going back and forth between islands, family, tourist and school travel.
Smaller aircraft will not meet the time frames since no one wants to fly at 2 am.
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Arbitration will be a given as both parties don't want to be associated with the outcome.
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Quote: for the Hawaiian people now on the Alaska threads

OTZ is our crazy relative at the thanksgiving dinner that your mother doesn’t like

he’s always in the know- some connection. Broken clock is right 2x a day

also he’s rich off bitcoin. source: trust me bro
Even if you do trust that he bought 121 BTC in 2020, not 2021 as he bragged about numerous times. He's lost out on an amazing opportunity to make an eye watering amount of money:

He panic sold his 121 BTC at 39K. During what he thought was a "sell the news" event. Not a bad profit of just under 4 million. For someone who doesn't understand the assets he holds, the halving cycle or basic Elliot wave Theory, he got really lucky.

Just a couple of months later those BTC were worth 73K. 8,833,000 dollars. So far he's left about 4 million on the table.

Even now at 67K, 67.3K at the time I write this the BTC would be worth over 8.1 million dollars.

The most important thing to keep in mind is not to take anything he says seriously. He just got lucky. It happens.

His track record shows he doesn't understand how markets work, he doesn't understand basic theory about investing. He doesn't take the time to research basic things about the assets he owns. Please do not let him concern you about staffing levels or furloughs.

He also apparently does not understand that the internet is forever....
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Quote: Even if you do trust that he bought 121 BTC in 2020, not 2021 as he bragged about numerous times. He's lost out on an amazing opportunity to make an eye watering amount of money:

He panic sold his 121 BTC at 39K. During what he thought was a "sell the news" event. Not a bad profit of just under 4 million. For someone who doesn't understand the assets he holds, the halving cycle or basic Elliot wave Theory, he got really lucky.

Just a couple of months later those BTC were worth 73K. 8,833,000 dollars. So far he's left about 4 million on the table.

Even now at 67K, 67.3K at the time I write this the BTC would be worth over 8.1 million dollars.

The most important thing to keep in mind is not to take anything he says seriously. He just got lucky. It happens.

His track record shows he doesn't understand how markets work, he doesn't understand basic theory about investing. He doesn't take the time to research basic things about the assets he owns. Please do not let him concern you about staffing levels or furloughs.

He also apparently does not understand that the internet is forever....
1 bought at an average of 11 and sold at 43… not a bad return. Sure I would have loved more, I just felt it was time, time to enjoy.
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Here is an update in a SEC filing. I guess I'm not that smart. What does this mean?

On March 27, 2024, Alaska and Hawaiian entered into a timing agreement with the DOJ pursuant to which they agreed, among other things, not to consummate the Merger before 90 days following the date on which both parties have certified substantial compliance with the Second Request unless they have received written notice from the DOJ prior to the end of such 90-day period that the DOJ has closed its investigation of the Merger.
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Quote: Here is an update in a SEC filing. I guess I'm not that smart. What does this mean?

On March 27, 2024, Alaska and Hawaiian entered into a timing agreement with the DOJ pursuant to which they agreed, among other things, not to consummate the Merger before 90 days following the date on which both parties have certified substantial compliance with the Second Request unless they have received written notice from the DOJ prior to the end of such 90-day period that the DOJ has closed its investigation of the Merger.
IMO it's positive. They are probably getting a faster timeline from DOJ. If they allow DOJ to stop the process if they find something they don't like.
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Quote: IMO it's positive. They are probably getting a faster timeline from DOJ. If they allow DOJ to stop the process if they find something they don't like.
Yes. AS/HA agreed to do some things and hold off on finalizing for a short while. In exchange the DOJ seems to be indicating that they'll make a quick decision. Seems to hint DOJ already has an idea as to what that decision will be.
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I hate this merger.

1. The Amazon flying is subjecting us to Amazons whims (whipsaw) in line with Mesa and Atlas. Not company I want AS to be associated with nor their payrates or contract protections. If Amazon can whipsaw AS, AS can whipsaw its pilot group to compete with bottom tier contract cargo carriers. HA is staffing for this flying which I believe likely means AS will be overstaffed when they are combined.

2. The only hardware HA has of value to AS is a 787 and order slots. Old A330-200s (to my understanding have range issues? I.E. useless unless you have a pitstop in the middle of the Pacific), old 717s at the end of their life cycle, 321's that AS just spent the last 10 years getting rid of. Seems unlikely that anything is left besides Maxs and 787s in a decade. I.E. 1000 ****ed off pilots except for the select few who can hold 787.

3. HA is a flailing (not failing) business model. Buying another company just to shut down everything that isn't making money. Leads to unhappy people, upended lives, etc.

4. HA appears overstaffed as is. 60ish airplanes. 1100 pilots? I'm not sure what the staffing model is for wide bodies, but this seams fat. We already have zero hiring zero progression at AS this year.

5. Much like the VA folks, I think the HA pilot group is in for a rude awakening when it sees how cutthroat AS is. Surfer holiday culture may be a thing of the past shortly. Base sizes, aircraft, etc. These are all things that are just numbers on a spreadsheet to ST and BM. Ask any prior VA pilot that believed leaderships rhetoric. The chance of those 787s staying in HNL is not high. Results in a bunch ****ed off island boys.

6. Another SLI. It won't go smoothly. It NEVER goes smoothly. Somehow everyone gets F'd in an SLI. Somehow.

7. Another 1000 pilots complaining about sidesticks and tray tables sounds exhausting. I'm sure HA pilots are fine folks just like the VA pilots are a good group of people. But listening to people complain EVERY SINGLE TIME you come to work and sit next to someone in black pants gets so old. I am aware this is not how you wanted your career to go....I always lend a sympathetic ear, I wish I could go back and make it so AS never bought VA. But they did, it was a huge mistake IMO, that CEO is gone, moving on. Sorry the 737 is a POS, its what we're paid to fly, moving on.

I didn't leave AS for one of the bigger airlines for very specific reasons. Notably, was the defensive nature of the business model and the downside protection to my career that is provided. This merger puts AS way outside of its core competency and I worry it will be far more economically sensitive after acquiring a flailing business model with a bunch of inefficient old assets and an overstaffed pilot group. Eliminates the defensive nature of our business model which I covet. So while a bunch of career 737 pilots drool over the potential of sitting in a 787 for 14 hours to Sydney (if the fences ever come down) I'll be praying for the DOJ to step in and spare us from BMs ego project. I like our airline and I like our 10-12 percent profit margins even more. I believe those profit margins are a thing of the past when the entities are combined and the well being of both pilot groups goes down substantially in a post merger environment.

I hope I'm wrong, I often am, merger seems inevitable, and I genuinely hope everyone benefits through the process.
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