Well so much for overmanning... I was denied a training swap for an earlier class date to 757 FO.. reason

We will not be able to approve this swap,
due to "JP's" current position of B727 S/O.
We need the 27S/O's for Peak Season.


So... Fellow 727 Engineers.... get ready for a lot of draft and volunteer. Apparently the company is very short in our seat... I wonder how there was an excess of 50 just a little while back.... hmmm...


Still plumbing away!!

JP.

Captain "O" said we were "several hundred" pilots overmanned in ground school this week. He didn't say where, but he did say that at some point it would make sense to excess into the lowest paying seats (727?).

Nasty rumors floating around today about Blg reductions after peak. Has anyone else heard this????

Quick...bid HK

I'm feeling sick already!

The word I keep hearing is a SMALL excess on the Airbus after Peak.

However, a couple things might fix this as I see it.

1) Nobody bid Hong Kong and make them SIBA it. Every guy that doesn't bid it is that many guys they'll have to send over there on the Bus, thus hopefully making any excess smaller.

2) 777 bid. IF this actually happens and we stay on the timeline for deliveries due to a Boeing strike, addtional airframes should help the overmanning system-wide, thus eating up the extra bodies. I have a theory that they'll have to man the 777 with more bodies than they think since all the NDs will bid it and not allow the company to fly it internationally with all old guys on board. See the initial 757 bid with nearly all seats manned with over 60 types...oops, no flying to Canada, Mexico, South America.

3) Fleet plan as published in the rash of FCIFs on the bids. Rough numbers as I don't know which planes are sitting for C Checks and the like--this is from May 2008-May 2010: -15 727s, +28 757s, -13 DC10s, -5 Airbus, +14 MD10s, +2 MD11s, +4 777s.

Net gain of 15 airplanes by Spring of 2010.

Now, we're either overmanned big time, overmanned a little, or rightsized, depending on whose lips are moving. I'm an optimist, so I'm throwing out overmanned big time. Therefore, if we're overmanned a little, the 777 bid should eat that up. If we're right sized, then how can we not spin up hiring earlier than they say to meet the demand for bodies for 15 airplanes? I'm guessing an earlier number than 2010 for new hiring...but again, I'm the optimist.

Discuss.

WM

Fleet plan's going to go out the window if the economy freezes up.

Doesn't matter how many airframes are supposedly coming, you have to have freight to encourage the company to fly them.

Someone is actually saying we are rightsized? I would doubt most of what that individual says going forward.

Reductions after peak? That is what I heard. Makes sense as the 757 slowly comes on-line and the DC-10s go away. Even for the same freight movement we will need fewer crewmembers. And that was before economic forecasts turned further south for early to mid '09.

Agree with all, Gunter.

I'm not saying that we're anywhere near rightsized right now. I don't think anyone believes that or is saying that. All I was implying is that with an increase in airframes (and the subsequent bid...777) to fill it, certainly that would eat up some bodies and get us closer to the right size.

Certainly we need more freight to justify all of it and if things totally die off...not good.

WM

We must not be too overmanned if the company isn't even remotely considering any of our early retirement suggestions. Unless they are going to wait until after peak to do that also.