Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?

I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.

Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."

The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.

base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over

EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over

IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over

CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over

ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under

DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under

SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under

LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under

IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under

total----1470-----------------------------------------14026



So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.

I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.

Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.

So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?

Within weeks and more info on the bidding process itself as early as this week. (source: SVP Flight Ops)

Flight Ops update, 13 Sept
And I don't think it will be a "mania." We can only bid into vacancies and from what I've heard of the LUAL bidding process those vacancies don't come in hundreds at a time like they did at LCAL. I also think they'll proceed slowly to avoid displacements because of the multiple training cycles it can cause.

However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.

They can only bid for vacancies unless there is a bump. With the parking of the LUAL 757s, the bumps will come soon and they can bid anything their seniority can hold.

True, but that's why I say they'll proceed slowly.

Correct. The bumps will take a while to filter through. Combined with vacancy bids, the return of the 400 to ORD, it's departure at LAX, this will very interesting to say the least. I'm sure they are on top of it.

while I agee our Vacancy bids have been smaller, that is because they came out monthly. I remember back in the glory days some monthly bids with 300 awards! Since we are now every so slightly larger than we were then, it wouldn't surprise me to see some pretty large bids coming out pretty soon. I agree that they will be somewhat muted by the fact that the company will likely not want to "bump" anymore pilots than they have to, so they may just manage the flying out of other domiciles during the coming months until attrition helps right size things

The number of vacancies will also depends on equipment deployments and shifting, there may be a surprising number of vacancies in previous L-UAL bases like SFO, IAD and LAX where B737 will be deployed on a mass scale.

Question: can the post-2010 "new hires" (off-the-street folks) bid to the 747 or are they considered CAL and subject to the 5-yr fence? Yes, I know we are so junior that it won't matter, but I am thinking theoretically here.

That breakdown jives with the rumors I have heard from a "special assignment" pilot working at Willis.

DEN, ORD, SFO grow the 737 positions. More Airbuses for IAH, as 737s get redeployed. Possibly a 737 base IAD Haven't heard anything on the 787 but the writing on the wall looks like LAX is inevitable.