Quote:
Originally Posted by TallFlyer
Sure, under your theory of wanting scope relief to solve the shortage issue, the mainline carriers will shrink, but the pilots needed to staff the theoretical increase of the regionals have to come from somewhere.
Scope relief is a way of shifting more flying to a lower cost model to help with corporate profits. It's a way to force the expansion of the B-scale composition. It also buys time. But that likely isn't going to work as I don't see the APA or any other mainline going along with it. In this case though, as you pointed out pilots have to come from somewhere, well, instead of having to hire at the majors, they'd place the larger faster, shinier jets at the regionals for lower operating wages. Same number of pilots required at the regional level, fewer required at the main line level. It's no different than going from DSH-8 to an E145 or E175 at PDT. They won't need more pilots as long as the airframe count is the same, just a few more for the training bubble. But again, that's likely not going to happen, the mainline guys aren't going to roll over on scope, especially with no pensions to lose.
Where does that leave us? The wholly owned if merged does one thing and one thing only, it combines the pilot groups into one manageable force at which new hires for AA can be ultimately placed with the promise of flow to AA, ie AA stops hiring off the street and goes to a 100% flow model, and AA does the hiring for all off the street hires at the combined envoy. This isn't going to happen tomorrow, or 3 years from now, but it may happen within about 5 years, and you're going to start seeing a shift in that direction. Possibly sooner than you might think. Just wait and see. My GUESS, is you'll start hearing merger rumors from higher sources around this time next year. An actual merger might happen a year later, and the language will be in place at that point for the eventual increase in flow percentages to AA.
If it doesn't happen, then the wholly owned with the most pilots, and best flow will survive, and the others will be starved out of existance.
Makes no sense to you what-so-ever does it? sleep on it, perhaps you'll have an epiphany.