Can you explain your fractions please? (Student)

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2.5/5 is what the company is saying for upgrade and flow. 2.5 from new hire to upgrade. 5 years from new hire to flow. In actuality, it's currently 8 years (or more) to upgrade and 16 to flow. So 8/16. I'm sure Cuj will be on here shortly saying that unless somebody discovers the fountain of youth, then it has to drop.

But facts are what they are. Right now, today, it's a min of 8 years to upgrade and 16 to flow.

Understood. A month ago I attended a meet and greet. I was told 3/6. The Envoy FO that was there is about to take his chances with Emirates at approximately 4500TT.

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That's because right now, today we are flowing the backlogged pilots who didn't flow in the decade after 9/11.

But that is just "facts" and isn't as cool of a soundbite as "16 year flow!!" Doesn't change the fact that pilots hired today will flow in 6 to 7 years at our minimum flow rate. The only thing that could affect that is if all hiring at AA stops and/or Envoy ceases to exist. Neither one is likely to happen. But keep pushing those cute soundbites you learned online.

The recalled pilots are returning as we speak. In most moths AA has ZERO street hires so that they can run classes made up entirely of Envoy pilots and recalls. In March 2016 the recalls end. That will free up additional class dates for either street hires and/or more Envoy flow throughs.

Another point to consider is this. Currently AA is running very small classes when compared to Delta and United. That won't last for long. Once they get their full cadre of instructors and check airmen up and running their class sizes WILL increase. Current class numbers are the absolute minimum for AA and their training department is playing catch up. Once they do catch up, class sizes will increase as will the amount of Envoy flow throughs.

AA is downsizing the fleet (40+ planes this year alone) and the increased efficiencies in the new contract will put a damper on hiring. Already has on the LUS side.

RJ, I'm a student, not a child. Truth is, I just returned from the middle east. I'm sure there is attrition. But there is growth as well. If you go be ready to adapt.

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Aircraft on the way out is just one part of the story. The other part pertains to aircraft on the way in. The MD-80s are being retired as everyone should know. The 757-200s are also being retired.

But what about the aircraft orders? Have you taken a look at those numbers at all? The 757s are being replaced by A321s and the MD-80s by 737s among other aircraft such as the A319. This doesn't take into account new aircraft types such as the 787 or new variants such as the 777-300ER.

Long story short, AA's fleet continues to grow and be robust. Yes, older less efficient aircraft are being replaced by newer models. But the aircraft arriving are more than just replacements. The last aircraft order was for 460 narrow bodies from Boeing and Airbus. 460 more than replaces all MD-80s and 757s. It adds to the fleet numbers as well.

I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but the current fleet of MD-80s is around 100 and should be completely retired by 2017. There are also another 50 or so 757s that will be retired. A few older America West A320s will also be retired.

All totaled that is 150 to 200 aircraft retired in the next few years. The current aircraft order for AA more than eclipses that number. There's another 150 A320s alone due to arrive, not to mention the 737 orders, 787s, remaining 777s, and the A350 which should begin to arrive in 2017.

And in the midst of all that is an unprecedented amount of retirements at the combined AA. There is no getting around age 65. Like I said before, AA's class sizes WILL increase and will probably be larger than anything Delta or United is currently running. Larger class sizes = more Envoy flow throughs since Envoy's flow is a percentage of each class and not a hard number.

They are deferring deliveries. For 2014 or 2015 (can't remember) we are -43 mainline.

So no, the fleet does not continue to "grow", unless by grow you really mean shrink.

Oh, but we are up a lot of RJs.

I'm not disputing that. I'm looking beyond 2015. And you have to follow the bouncing ball here. They are deferring deliveries for the exact reason I mentioned in earlier posts:

The training department is playing catch up. That is why current classes are so relatively small. Once instructors, check airmen, sims, and other resources are in full gear the class sizes will increase and the aircraft deliveries will resume as normal.

Right now AA's training department can't handle all the deliveries and by extension all the required new hires. Hence the small classes when compared to Delta and Untied.

don't forget the 762 leaving and the 763 delayed for now