Southwest Hiring 2020
 

Here's what we know.

400-450 new hires. 250-300 upgrades.

Boeing wants us to take 72 MAX7/MAX8 aircraft in 2020. These will be in addition to the 34 MAX8 aircraft currently parked. I'm sure behind the scenes there are negotiations to acquire more MAXs at a significant discount.

Some (unknown amount) older 737-700s will be retired or returned to lessors.

The LEAD Center expansion will be completed in Fall of 2020. Sim capacity will rise to 26, from the 18 the current building holds.

Overstaffing will continue for the foreseeable future. I there are only 150 retirements next year. Even if we get 100 more aircraft online (very optimistic) by the end of 2020 we will still have a relatively high pilot to aircraft ratio. This is assuming no "game-changer" like red-eyes.

No vacancy bid in January 2020. First time a month has been skipped I think since 2014?

Long term there is reason to optimistic. They are still telling new hires 12,000 pilots by 2022, and we'll be up to 1200 airplanes in ten years.

Long term aircraft plans? Management has said it's too hard to spool up another aircraft type and our future is tied to the MAX. That probably means another type, considering that things that were too hard to do like opening a Denver base and purchasing AirTran ended up happening.

Most importantly, Zap will likely get an opportunity to sit Oakland reserve in the left seat long before he gets to 10 years on property. :D

I heard

• 700 new hires.
• "the retirement wave hasn't even begun yet"
• when Max returns, hiring will go crazy

all rumor-mill stuff, but FYI

Yeah that’ll be a definite bypass, but I like your optimism. [emoji23]



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The new hire numbers are official-ish, once from a reliable source (not a check airman) and now the same number has now been published on SWAPA site.

Southwest retirement "wave" starts 2023. It's not a wave like the legacies will experience but we will have a decade of elevated retirements.

I do believe that hiring numbers could be increased if the MAX comes back in a big way. Traditionally hiring numbers have been revised upwards as the year progressed. This year was a anomaly for obvious reasons.

Not to worry about the increase in retirements.... FAA will increase the retirement age to 67 and 11 months in 2020!

Kap

Wrong. It will happen right before Zap decided to bid for upgrade. :D

Seriously, what percent of pilots can make it to 65 years old? I don't think age 67 would have the same impact at age 65 did. I think it's a distraction, like PBS is...they can't program changes to our vacation bidding, they aren't gonna figure PBS out anytime soon.

Which reminds me, I forgot to mention that negotiations for our next contract will start in 2020. Based on what other labor groups have expereinced recently, expect a long and difficult negotiation.

Yeah that checks out. I’m not gonna lie. I’ve worried about exactly that. Age 67... a merger... etc


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Here’s what SRC published. It was most recently updated on November 13.

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The December 3rd class is happening. I guess I only know because I'm in it! Woohoo!! The other numbers you posted are what I've been hearing for February and March. During the interview we were told about 450 new hires for 2020. Time will tell I guess.

Edit: I totally miss read that chart. I see it says UPGRADES are cancelled for December. Sorry about that.

Any insights to any of the future hiring windows? Still pulling from the summer window? Thanks!

Pretty sure the previous window is over. A number of people got TBNTs from the last opening today. Due to a reduction in classes, not many were interviewed.

Next window will likely open end of January.

Retirement "wave"? Lol.

Compared to what?

Compared to UA, DL, AA? Might want to check the retirement numbers at the legacies and then compare it to the retirement numbers at Southwest. Scroll to the bottom to view the retirements each year.

Do you still call Southwest retirements a "wave"?

You sure PBS is a distraction? And if it is, for who? Us or the company?

They couldn't "figure out" vacation bidding because it doesn't give them any kind of advantage to act quickly on it. However, it does provide them an advantage to draw it out. It divides the pilot group going into 2020. Russell McCrady is not dumb.

PBS, on the other hand, creates a win/win for the company. Either they obtain it and save themselves a ton of money on overlap and other scheduling inefficiencies or they use it as leverage causing clue-lacking SWAPA to back away from many of its asks in order to keep PBS off property. Expect company whisperers to start using terms like "good PBS" just like they started talking about "good code share" last time.

And I wouldn't count on this next negotiation being long and difficult. It might end up being that way but, for a variety of reasons, there's a decent chance we'll have a TA about a year from now. That's probably not a good thing for the pilot group. Hope I'm wrong.

The entity we’re negotiating with is a lot sharper than anyone at the company, it’s FordHarrison which does all the labor relations work for almost every airline. They’re masters at what they do, as well as consult the companies on healthcare, etc.

The divide, distract and destroy as necessary to get the negotiations victory.

We need to understand and adapt to this to be successful at representing ourselves.

Southwest Hiring 2020
 

At its peak, AA will retire approx 6.5 percent of its pilots in a single year. Huge movement.
At its peak, SWA will retire approx 4.1 percent of its pilots in a single year. Not AA movement, but not something to ignore, either. The retirement waves at the respective airlines are pretty similar over the years, SWAs just trails by a couple of years and has a younger pilot group, so it is spread out over a longer period.
So yes, I would call it a wave. AA is like a tsunami, SW is like a pretty sweet swell.
Those reading this who get hired towards the back end of that wave at AA/DL/UA are going to be stuck in the right seat for a very long time. Delta has front loaded a lot of hiring with young pilots, so they are already seeing that stunted seniority growth in the future to a degree. While I know that seems far off, go back 10 years on this forum and read some of the posts. Eye opening.

Not entirely accurate..... At least at Delta there are MANY choices you have to make, each with significant opportunity cost. You will be able to hold left seat pretty quick if you pick a smaller category and/or base yourself in NYC or LA for example. It will be awhile to bid 777 captain in ATL, but even now a new hire will have amazing seniority portability around the system depending on the base and the companies equipment decisions.

So if LEFT seat is YOUR goal, you will do much better at a legacy than SWA for quite some time. It may not be your dream assignment though, that is why often WB FO is significantly more senior at some bases than the NB Captain positions.

I had a delta guy on the JS. He just upgraded to the 737 in LAX. 17 yrs on property. He said he could hold right seat 777 LAX and he'd be 2nd from the bottom.
I'm sure he could have upgraded sooner but I didnt get the impression very much sooner.
Either way there's always the grass is greener stories at every airline. I'm glad now people have somewhat of a choice compared to 10 years ago.

there are 3 year captains at Delta. (probably even junior)

the next bid at UPS will likely see 6 year captains, although to be fair, they did not hire from 2008- mid 2014

He was feeding you a line. Nobody has 17 years on property because nobody was hiring in 2002. But 12 years on property gets you about 20-25 from the bottom of LAX777 right seat.

FWIW, my summer window thing still says "submission received", and I haven't yet seen a TBNT. I'm not expecting an interview any time soon, but I'm hopeful that means something.

Yeah, poor example on my part. I guess what I was alluding to is that those being hired today will not crack the top seniority bracket at Delta unless they are very young. This is because they have front loaded a lot of their hiring with a very young pilot group from 2014-present.
You’re right, there are junior captain positions there and that does provide those who are motivated with great options.
The point of my reply is that as a percentage of the pilot group, all the big airlines are going to see massive movement in the next 10 years. This includes SW, but to a lesser degree.
A relatively young 2014 hire at any of the legacy airlines is in a very enviable position. The same applies to SWA, but their reward will be delayed a few years.

Same here. Not sure if that means that much. Probably still applying to the next window in 2020 before hearing anything. Hut I'll keep checking the email!

The quick upgrades at AA are on the 190 in PHL.

The quick upgrades (5 yrs I think?) at UAL are in SFO and EWR 737 and 320.

The quick upgrades at DL are on the MD-88, 717 and C-Series (maybe the 320/737?).

Good if you live in those bases and want the extra pay. I wouldn’t commute to a garbage schedule just for some more pay.

Choices are what those airlines offer. Choice of fleet gives you different routes, etc.

Well same here I guess, submission still says submission received on SW career page, no contact from SW though. Does that mean anything?

It doesn’t mean much. It may stay “submission received” forever. “Closed complete” means no.

I had a “closed complete” with a TBNT email followed by a “submission received” followed by what assume was the fateful application window that got me the invite.

Let’s be honest, if you have to work till 67 you either have 4 ex wives, have no life or can’t do basic math for saving in retirement. I couldn’t do any of the above so married a women who could do basic math. SMH staying in this industry till 67 let alone 65

Except you might as well stay on, especially if you have good relative seniority. I figure if near the end I don't need to work anymore I'll be able to dump 10 trips per year via vacation drop, giveaway 1-2 trips per month, and I'd probably be "sick" a few times per year also. That would leave me with 2 trips per month...and on today's pay rates that would be $150k with profit share and b-fund. Not bad for working 2x per month Tues-Thurs.

However, pilots that are 64.5 years old and are still hammering out 150TFP of straight time every month..I hope that's not me.

Prox...

Agree with your assessment! That would be exactly my plan... to basically be semi retired and fly 1 to 2 trips per month.

Kap

My birthday is early in the year so my last few months will be vacation with one final turn or something before I pull the parachute. Prob get yelled at for landing currency before I retire.

Figure they won't have to pay you profit share in that last year so they'll be able to afford to send you to the sim for bounces.

Hopefully in the next 27 years we can get that fixed....profit sharing as long as you’re an employee. Helps out those on medical, MIL, retirees and new hires.

Any word of the next window opening?

FWIW got an invite about 2 weeks ago. Submitted in the last round. Currently 4th or 5th total attempt.

With AA, UA, and DL offering upgrades well below ten years there is value in determining approximate upgrade times for the basis of comparison.

Most junior captain is a 90 thousand number - system seniority around 6235. Not sure what that equates to in hire date.

Looks like about 1000 FOs are bypassing.


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Most junior upgrade hire date right now is March 2010. Classes canceled for December, so he was right at 9.5 years as an early November upgrade.
I suspect it will drop significantly once the max is back on line (whenever that happens) and then again when we hit the “recession bubble” where there was only sporadic pilot hiring for a few years.
My crystal ball thinks it will drop to 6-7 years, but guys around Zap and my seniority will probably not see that and will be more around 8 years for first available.
I was discussing bypass FOs with a captain the other day. He pointed out (correctly) that that group has pretty much always existed, even when things were really slow. Bypassers gonna bypass. It’s usually for a good reason. I know if I had the choice between my current domicile as a senior FO or commuting to OAK or LA to hold a junior captain seat, that I would bypass to infinity.

This to a T.

True that. A recession could also throw a monkey wrench in the whole works. They’re only talking like 250 upgrades this year. That’s next to nothing in a 10,000 pilot group so I’m a little more pessimistic. I’m still thinking 10ish years for a base that isn’t Oakland.

Southwest Hiring 2020
 

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Happy New Year Zap! [emoji12]

New DEN terminal expansion should be done around 2021 I think. Base should nearly double in size. I’m sitting around 45% on the FO list so I’ll get really senior or get lucky with a CA spot. Been moving up 15% or so every year so 2 more years should have me around 15% on the FO side (and that’s without the new gates being factored in). Depending on bypasses, etc. I think it’ll be close....by end of 2021 I’ll have 6 full years on property. *assuming Max’s aren’t turned to beer cans, and there’s no big recession, age 85, etc.