Originally Posted by flyguy81

The Max is no Electra. More like the 727....which ended up being hugely successful.

While Boeing screwed up the MCAS situation, the planes crashed because of who was sitting in the seat. I seriously doubt a US crew would’ve put it into a crater. This has more to do with 3rd world training and global politics than anything about the plane. I’d fly it today without the software patch.

Originally Posted by RJSAviator76

This pains me to write, but if I had a choice between Spirit or Frontier and Southwest while living in LAS, I think Southwest would be my last choice of the three.

Do you want to upgrade to captain within a reasonable timeframe? If so, scratch off Southwest.
Do you want faster movement through seniority list? Scratch off Southwest.
Do you want to stake your professional existence and the future on a non-controversial airplane? Scratch off Souhwest.

When Southwest bought AirTran, I initially wrote it off because they hired such a young pilot group, the upgrade times skyrocketed. To make matters worse, Southwest got rid of B-717's but kept all AT pilots. Now you have a young pilot group to boot.

Enter 2014-2020 hiring at Southwest. We hired over 3,200 pilots. While some of this hiring was driven by expansion plans and "banking" of pilots in anticipation of shortage (it gets harder to leave once you hit year 3 or so), a great deal of hiring took place to eliminate premium. It was even stated as such by the Sr. VP of Air Ops. The net effect of this practice exposed the many weaknesses of our contract. Our contract was written with "picking up" in mind, but with zero protections against the company doing exactly what it's done right now. This is all now further aggravated by the grounding of MAX.

Legacies are all upgrading into NB equipment within 3-4 years because the pilots there tend to prefer to be WB FO's, i.e. they have options. Spirit and Frontier have a very aggressive growth schedule with aircraft deliveries that will result in much faster movement for them. Conversely, any Southwest new hire will have at least 3200 pilots hired in recent years ahead of them, at an airline that has grossly stagnated due to a single type of aircraft with the future staked out on a highly controversial airplane with hugely negative media and public attention, with a relatively very young pilot group with not very many retirements coming up, and with the pilot contract negotiations coming that will likely take years.

Don't get me wrong about Southwest, it is a great company. I love the people I'm working with. I enjoy the type of flying we do. I don't mind flying the 737. But our progression and compensation is based strictly on seniority basis, and given what's going on here and in comparison what's going on elsewhere, why would you do this to yourself?

I hate to sound bearish on Southwest, but if I were looking for a job today, Southwest would be on the bottom of my list of places to go. If I were a 1st or 2nd year FO here, I would be aggressively pursuing other options.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Yeah, well me too. And the Electra was a success too once they corrected the harmonic vibration wings break off in cruise problem - just not with the civilian world. But the issue isn’t whether pilots will fly it, it’s whether or not pax will fly it.

and when you have flight attendants unions publicly saying that THEY DON’T trust the FAA and Boeing to make it safe:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-...737-max-plane/

how do you expect the lay public to feel confident?

Look, you MAY be right and I think you PROBABLY are, but anyone who doesn’t think there remains a downside risk of pax shying away from the MAX is deluding himself.

Originally Posted by Peacock

Most of the downsides you listed for SWA apply to Spirit and Frontier as well. Their upgrade time is largely dependent on growth just like SWA, except there are retirements on the horizon at SWA. All are single fleet type. The main advantage of upgrade time at the ULCC’s is entirely dependent on the economy holding up. SWA is much better equipped to weather a downturn. Plus we have a better contract, and are likely to widen the gap with the coming contract.

Originally Posted by flyguy81

Sell the seat for $49 and tell them to walk or get on the plane.....99.9% will get on the plane. I’ve shown a couple people who were scared to get on a -800 (thought it was a MAX) how the stab cutout switches worked and they were like, “that’s it? They crashed because of two switches?”. In a nutshell....yeah. General public is stupid....some good PR when it comes back online will make or break it.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

and when you have flight attendants unions publicly saying that THEY DON’T trust the FAA and Boeing to make it safe:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-...737-max-plane/

how do you expect the lay public to feel confident?

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Maybe. But the MAX wouldn’t be the first aircraft whose civilian commercial success was doomed by a couple of early accidents if it happened :

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...938-story.html

Alaska and Southwest have all their eggs in one basket and while it will PROBABLY work out, remember, the generation currently coming to adulthood is the one that wasn’t permitted to play dodge ball in school. There are a lot of risk-averse snowflakes out there with little ability to tell the perception from the reality of that risk.