If they downgrade people because of ExTO wouldn’t they just upgrade again in six months when the bulk of the ExTO people return?

i wouldn’t expect the captain roster to be kept higher than necessary just to protect downgrades. Displacements and downgrades should be anticipated if the imbalance is too large.

downgrades would be much more of a possibility due to involuntary furloughs at the bottom of the list than voluntary leaves throughout the list. Though I’ll bet most of the leaves are jr FOs.

Most vsp will be captains, yes FOs will be most of exto but we were way over staffed on the FO side, so I think downgrades will be minimal if at all. if they do have to downgrade maybe they can work with the union to increase lance captain slots, will reduce training and improve utilization.

Bingo. We have been riding a thousand high on the FO side since 2016. Occasionally, they would upgrade a bunch and the balance would temporarily be semi restored, but when Covid hit, we were in a FO glut.

Delta's numbers are astonishing. About 16% of their list leaving permanently. That's practically a windfall for those who remain.


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Yeah, but that’s not surprising as they’re a much older pilot group by average age.

DL has a much higher percentage of their list leaving in the next few years anyway. They will be a very young pilot group when the dust settles from Covid.

So maybe 940 VSP and 1410 ExTO.

Downgrades? Shut your mouth!

940?! You're dreaming.

There are only 1000 pilots between 60 and 65 right now.


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