Hypotheticals are not really a good way to figure something out like that. Their is so much change a foot going on here, it's hard to kind of see 18-24 months out. Five years ago they paid guys to leave. Then within two years they had to lower minimums to get people here. Change can happen very quickly. Their are no tea leaves in this business. Most of the time, the change that does come, nobody saw it coming. Commuting as capt vs an FO in base is tough call.

 

Personally, I'd stay in the left seat. Aside from discussing what would happen if we potentially merged with someone, your sick leave is worth way more, your LTD is worth a lot more, your work day is worth a lot more, and if you're getting displaced out of ATL, I doubt you'll get displaced into OAK.

To me, no brainer.

 

Great points. I would add also NEC and MBCBP. All are percentages. Which means, larger the pay, the more goes into retirement.

 

I agree that a UA/JB merger would likely never pass muster, but getting JB to join Star Alliance and create some domestic codeshare between UA/JB seems easily doable. This would be prevent JB from merging with anyone else like AA/SWA.

 

Your own list doesn't get reordered during an SLI and neither does the other one. You're going to be junior to every SWA pilot you are currently junior to and senior to every SWA pilot you are currently senior to after any hypothetical SLI. The only difference it makes is in your paycheck while it all gets sorted out. However it gets arbitrated out the other items you mentioned get considered (think longevity though vs DOH) in some portion. If you were to merge with another carrier with WB you could probably expect to see those fenced off in most if not all cases for a while.

 

You are not missing anything other than if the music stops , it is nice being in the left seat .

 

I could definitely see this happening, but it really doesn't do much other than stem the bleeding for JetBlue. They are a star alliance member...now what? They are still hemmed in to the northeast where United has a ton of service. Then there is that pesky JFK/EWR thing. JetBlue already codeshares with a lot of foreign carriers, I don't see this as a big revenue boost for them.
I think JetBlue is great, they were just born 20 years too late, which is totally not their fault. They just don't have the scale and they aren't going to get there organically. Their bougie on a budget product is also easily replicated by their competitors. They were a great value proposition in the early 2000s and made some great moves to gain a footing in their big markets. Now mom and dad are back from bankruptcy rehab and they are doing great and aren't going to cede any more turf.

 

Amen. That's probably the biggest reason to stay a junior captain. You can fly min guarantee and still make a nice living.

 

definitely dont downgrade or do anything till you are forced to. Then you can decide.

 

Star Alliance member would be the best thing for them. Opens up a ton of connectivity and captures much of the full breath of what an Alliance is all about. Combining different airlines with with strong networks. Alaska Airlines has been doing this for a while(different alliance). Works great for them because they can't compete on east coast and much of the midwest. But with One World Alliance, Alaska customers can connnect on other carriers on the same itnerary through non Alaska hubs. Although IMO UAL has the best hub in the NY area, most Long Island residents are not driving to Jersey unless they have to. Jetblue has done a great job creating a network out of JFK. Domestic and international. They have many slots. Only Delta has more. Very valuable. NY is one of the largest O&D markets their is. And too boot, it's slot controlled. Shields competition. And the Alliance costs really nothing. That's the one option. The other is being bought. IMO none of the big four need it at the moment. Especially SWA.