Hotel Kilo
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My apologies, but I haven't been paying attention to what your company has been saying over the last 18 months, that's why I thought I'd ask you guys here.Originally Posted by Smokey23
It continues to be how it has always been: Legacies all moving in lockstep trying to outdo each other with identical business models....and SWA over there doing it's own thing. Sometimes times more successfully than other times. The fallacy in your thinking is that you seem to believe SWA wants become a clone of DL/UA/AA. If you'd pay more attention to what the company has been saying over the last 18 mos, you would see that is not really where they are headed. Yes, the product is indeed evolving, but not to a full-service, take-you-from-anywhere-to-anywhere-else airline (or air line?)....at least not in our lifetimes.
I guess from what I've heard it seemed to me you guys were moving to a more defined product and looking to snag a larger piece of the premium flyer market - which I was applauding BTW - but apparently from your post here it seems that is not the case?
Hotel Kilo
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Why am I a clown? For asking some questions? If that makes me a clown I'm happy to put on the red nose and Bozo shoes. Honk-Honk.Originally Posted by mulcher
How soon he forgets. When our newer FOs made CA pay everywhere else. I’m sure if he’s been at delta 30+ years. He was a little more humble. What a clown. I’m glad for deltoid. They have a great product. They didn’t get to this place without a lot of pain and time.
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I was talking to my friends at SWA. Which got me thinking about some things. So I figured I'd ask a "larger" pool of SWA pilots.
I think you all took me wrong. I want you guys to step up and be something out there. We need more that just 2 major players in the industry. As Kirby has stated, and I kinda agree with him, there are really only 2 big players in the US Airline industry right now and the foreseeable future as he sees it - UAL and DAL. I would love to see you guys get another fleet type (perhaps WB aircraft as well).
You guys say you are moving towards the lounges, premium seating (in whatever flavor you decide to equip your aircraft). That's great. How long though until all those pieces come to fruition? Meanwhile DAL and UAL are pluggin along and improving on their already premium services. It's what the larger market wants. If it wasn't, then you guys wouldn't be starting to initiate those changes you've mentioned here already.
Supposedly the lounge in HNL is under construction. No idea if/where others will be built. Hot food and first class isn’t our thing….prob never will be. If people want to be wined and dined with subpar reheated food, tv’s in the headrest that is constantly interrupted by every PA, etc, they can pay for that. Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I really don't care about that. And FYI feel free to go look at my post history. You'll see I don't wear the hat. Or the horse blanket (well most of the time I don't).I was talking to my friends at SWA. Which got me thinking about some things. So I figured I'd ask a "larger" pool of SWA pilots.
I think you all took me wrong. I want you guys to step up and be something out there. We need more that just 2 major players in the industry. As Kirby has stated, and I kinda agree with him, there are really only 2 big players in the US Airline industry right now and the foreseeable future as he sees it - UAL and DAL. I would love to see you guys get another fleet type (perhaps WB aircraft as well).
You guys say you are moving towards the lounges, premium seating (in whatever flavor you decide to equip your aircraft). That's great. How long though until all those pieces come to fruition? Meanwhile DAL and UAL are pluggin along and improving on their already premium services. It's what the larger market wants. If it wasn't, then you guys wouldn't be starting to initiate those changes you've mentioned here already.
We changed to charge for bags and seats with a bit of a legroom upgrade for those who want it. No idea if/when we get another fleet…maybe we’ll be like Westjet and get a fleet of older 767’s to get the foot in the door while they shop 787’s. Who knows?
We are and probably always will be a LCC (not sure about the low cost part since any fares are the same as everyone else’s now)…but that isn’t likely to change anytime soon.
Honestly, I’d be happy to see us start making $ again and for planning to get their crap together and quit screwing with base manning. Former will prob happen before the latter.
Liberty
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I really don't care…
I was talking…
I think you all took me wrong…
You guys say…
Hmmm. It’s possible you are unable to relate yourself to my inquiry but I believe most other observers have no problem doing so. Good day, Sir!Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I really don't care…
I was talking…
I think you all took me wrong…
You guys say…
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You're working for it, ok. But when are you going to get there? Meanwhile UAL is deploying their Polaris cabin NB fleet and we are deploying the D1 NB. We also have more premium seating in each of our planes that you all do. How many premium seats can you plug into a MAX 8? UAL and DAL can plug many in a MAX 10 and a 321 NEO (as well as the 75).
How long until you get to the lounges, real premium seating, and food service on your aircraft? You're losing time. I bring this up due to the aggressive nature of UALs deployment of their NB fleets with significant premium seating available. Again, they are more of competition out there than we are as you all seem to operate out of the same places than we do.
If SWA does $4.00-$6.00 a share in 2026, that would make SWA operating margins as high or maybe even higher than UAL and Delta, This happy talk of premium is the only way it will begin to subside. I still reserve judgment on it because its such a turnaround. I also reserve judgment because the macro can always and does take assumption's from a perfect scenario. If SWA does $2.0-$2.5 Billion in earnings without lounges, first class and "food service", your argument starts too lose its muster. Especially on the domestic side of the business where 95% of SWA's revenue is derived from. PRASM for 2025 came in pretty much industry norm stage length adjusted(without all the new initiatives turned on). As I posted previously, RASM guidance is suppose to be up 9.5% for the first quarter(the dead quarter). Comps also play a role in this because both PRASM and RASM have been underperforming for years. So the numbers look big. EM sold 4 million shares recently and still has 46 million in ownership. They seem to think their is more earnings to come. They are much smarter than me. When other airlines revenues are derived from a large portion of its revenues form international(UAL 45%) its make total sense and the yields prove it. Domestically all the big three plus SWA, domestic yields have been lack luster over the last three years. Most of it is capacity driven. SWA definitely had a lot to do with it because they are the largest domestic airline. Lounges are coming, code sharing, earn and burn on the partnerships as well as new chase card. If that is not baked into earnings in 2026 even better. One bit of other info, ATL (air traffic liabilty)was down but that's because passengers are already beginning to use their points for buy ups. Competition is good and keeps this business moving. If you think that SWA will falter, bankrupt in a year or two and furlough, well thats your opinion. Who knows you maybe right. Both Delta and UAL are doing great financially. First financial test will be in about 90 days with their first report card. We'l see how everyone compares.Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
So you haven ovens on your planes now? Lounges? premium cabins? You say you are getting there. But you are a bit late leaving the station on it. At least that's what my friends tell em that fly at SWA.You're working for it, ok. But when are you going to get there? Meanwhile UAL is deploying their Polaris cabin NB fleet and we are deploying the D1 NB. We also have more premium seating in each of our planes that you all do. How many premium seats can you plug into a MAX 8? UAL and DAL can plug many in a MAX 10 and a 321 NEO (as well as the 75).
How long until you get to the lounges, real premium seating, and food service on your aircraft? You're losing time. I bring this up due to the aggressive nature of UALs deployment of their NB fleets with significant premium seating available. Again, they are more of competition out there than we are as you all seem to operate out of the same places than we do.
Hotel Kilo
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English is the language we use here correct? Those are the proper personal pronouns to use for the format of the question and statement being made. I'm sorry you were triggered by this.Originally Posted by Liberty
Hmmm. It’s possible you are unable to relate yourself to my inquiry but I believe most other observers have no problem doing so. Good day, Sir!
Hotel Kilo
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That assumes you maintain a significant customer base (to support RASM) does it not? That's why I bring up the demographic shifts in the markets. Our analysis shows a shifting to more of the "experience" traveler - at least those with the money to do so. It's a shift from 2 decades of "just get me there at the lowest fare". DAL was the first to see this and UAL is now blueprinting that and having good success with it. You now have not one, but two airlines offering premium experiences for customers at fare rates not that more than what you guys are charging.Originally Posted by REF 5
If SWA does $4.00-$6.00 a share in 2026, that would make SWA operating margins as high or maybe even higher than UAL and Delta, This happy talk of premium is the only way it will begin to subside. I still reserve judgment on it because its such a turnaround. I also reserve judgment because the macro can always and does take assumption's from a perfect scenario. If SWA does $2.0-$2.5 Billion in earnings without lounges, first class and "food service", your argument starts too lose its muster. Especially on the domestic side of the business where 95% of SWA's revenue is derived from. PRASM for 2025 came in pretty much industry norm stage length adjusted(without all the new initiatives turned on). As I posted previously, RASM guidance is suppose to be up 9.5% for the first quarter(the dead quarter). Comps also play a role in this because both PRASM and RASM have been underperforming for years. So the numbers look big. EM sold 4 million shares recently and still has 46 million in ownership. They seem to think their is more earnings to come. They are much smarter than me. When other airlines revenues are derived from a large portion of its revenues form international(UAL 45%) its make total sense and the yields prove it. Domestically all the big three plus SWA, domestic yields have been lack luster over the last three years. Most of it is capacity driven. SWA definitely had a lot to do with it because they are the largest domestic airline. Lounges are coming, code sharing, earn and burn on the partnerships as well as new chase card. If that is not baked into earnings in 2026 even better. One bit of other info, ATL (air traffic liabilty)was down but that's because passengers are already beginning to use their points for buy ups. Competition is good and keeps this business moving. If you think that SWA will falter, bankrupt in a year or two and furlough, well thats your opinion. Who knows you maybe right. Both Delta and UAL are doing great financially. First financial test will be in about 90 days with their first report card. We'l see how everyone compares.
You've been able to sustain your RASM as UAL wasn't really out there until recently, now, with their premium offerings. They fly to more places you guys do. You don't think that will pull form you or do you trust your customer base is loyal enough to remain? Your ticket prices are not much cheaper these days (I fly on you all a lot BTW) and quite frankly if given a choice of doing a long segment on you or UAL/DAL I'm going with UAL/DAL. It's just a much better product IMHO.
Also, no where did I state I think SWA would falter or go bankrupt (I wouldn't wish that on anyone). I do agree competition makes us all better and that's why I want to see you guys step up. That was stated in my very first post here.
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Thanks for the snark.
Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I've been here 30+. Well aware of the nature of the business.Thanks for the snark.
Then that’s almost worse. You of all people should know how this industry can turn in an instant. Your company is being managed well, there’s no disputing that. They have a quality product people are willing to pay more for. Will that change? Who knows. My company was late to the party for various reasons, but mainly because the leadership refused change. I guess we’ll see how it all works out.
Quote:
Thanks for the snark.
Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I've been here 30+. Well aware of the nature of the business.Thanks for the snark.
Yet you are very obsessed with WN. Show me on the doll where SWA has hurt you. I am here to help you and your ailing mental state.
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You've been able to sustain your RASM as UAL wasn't really out there until recently, now, with their premium offerings. They fly to more places you guys do. You don't think that will pull form you or do you trust your customer base is loyal enough to remain? Your ticket prices are not much cheaper these days (I fly on you all a lot BTW) and quite frankly if given a choice of doing a long segment on you or UAL/DAL I'm going with UAL/DAL. It's just a much better product IMHO.
Also, no where did I state I think SWA would falter or go bankrupt (I wouldn't wish that on anyone). I do agree competition makes us all better and that's why I want to see you guys step up. That was stated in my very first post here.
Its called natural share. A lot of it has to do with the markets the airlines serves. Thats why marketshare is important. People that fly out of EWR fly UAL. Why? Because they have too. People fly out of BNA on SWA. Why? Because they have too. The airlines that were bankrupt years ago like UAL, never really lost its natural share. On the margins maybe but if you look their 10K's over that time period, it wasn't faltering. The list can go on and on. In places like DEN, SWA's marketshare has been steady. UAL's stage length is double SWA's. SWA has a 780 mille stage length. The reality is the majority of flights are short. Premium is something people are will to pay for when flights are long. SWA has many but as the data shows, still 780 miles for 2025. Thats about hour and half. Heres marketshare in DEN.Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
That assumes you maintain a significant customer base (to support RASM) does it not? That's why I bring up the demographic shifts in the markets. Our analysis shows a shifting to more of the "experience" traveler - at least those with the money to do so. It's a shift from 2 decades of "just get me there at the lowest fare". DAL was the first to see this and UAL is now blueprinting that and having good success with it. You now have not one, but two airlines offering premium experiences for customers at fare rates not that more than what you guys are charging.You've been able to sustain your RASM as UAL wasn't really out there until recently, now, with their premium offerings. They fly to more places you guys do. You don't think that will pull form you or do you trust your customer base is loyal enough to remain? Your ticket prices are not much cheaper these days (I fly on you all a lot BTW) and quite frankly if given a choice of doing a long segment on you or UAL/DAL I'm going with UAL/DAL. It's just a much better product IMHO.
Also, no where did I state I think SWA would falter or go bankrupt (I wouldn't wish that on anyone). I do agree competition makes us all better and that's why I want to see you guys step up. That was stated in my very first post here.
- 2023 30.9%
- 2024 31%
- 2023 24.0 milion
- 2024 25.6 million
SWA domestic market share has been steady for years. When you look at the top 4, they are almost within a point of each other. Look at SWA passenger counts.
- 2023 137 million
- 2024 140 milion
