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Ok—What’s The New Base?

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Old 02-05-2026 | 09:22 AM
  #391  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Hello, DAL guy here. Yes, we are #2 at BOS and #2 at SEA. We won't be #2 at BOS for much longer. JBLU is foundering there. We'll continue to capacity dump on them. We've opened the 330 pilot base there and we fully expect to add other fleets to base there. At SEA we are behind Alaska, but not by much. We have plans there and as our 350s continue to roll in expect more of a footprint there as well. If you think we're going to surrender AUS to you I think you'd be wrong. Big plans there.

The problem you all have is you don't offer premium anything. And you are at least a decade behind DAL and UAL on that. The market demographics have been shifting. People, the customers we (DAL and UAL) are targeting, want the premium experience. Do you have galleys in your planes? I don't recall seeing them. Do you offer anything close to D1 or Polaris? Not even your "first class" is comparable to DAL or UAL. Again, you are about a decade behind where the market is moving. UAL and DAL have seen it and they are working to secure that premium flyer.

in order for you to compete with them in the future you're going to have to build lounges, upgrade cabins and service and provide a truly premium product. UAL getting their cabins with more premium is going to give you guys some issues. They fly to more areas that are your "turf" than we do. However, AUS won't be one place we are going to sit idly by. That is a premium market and one you won't be able to compete for unless and until you offer something commensurate with what we and UAL offer.

Lot of friends that fly for you guys, I hope to see you bring your A-game here. But until you get the lounges, the cabin interiors and truly offer a premium product you will lose market share to us and UAL. It's already happening. You can keep flying Joe and Margarita around p2p but in the end the $$$ are in the premium customer.
Delta has been #1 in BOS for a while now. Excluding regional feed is arbitrary as it’s critical to feeding hubs and operates under the Delta umbrella for profit/loss. This gap will clearly grow as B6 falters, more pax default to DL+AMEX, and DL adds some gates in 28’ when the A+B connector is online and cont. to up-gauge.

AUS, the market share gap that exists today will close per the Lease Agreement with ABIA and CEO Badawi - “40-40-20 market share split”.

DL: 15 firm + 8 common in A
WN: 18 firm + 3 common in B

Delta will be anchored in the preferred terminal: A which will be immensely larger after the new A/D Hall finishes adding several hundred thousand sqft. Add in closer proximity to pickup/dropoff, intl/customs, two massive DL clubs, and a $250M investment by DL to refreshen the BJT. WN will lose its share advantage. It’s already in writing. Something has to change if WN is gonna remain competitive there.

The DL ecosystem of Regional feed + Skyteam/Codeshares/JV’s + Mainline will likely surpass WN in market share, ultimately. WN still has no plans for a club in AUS (may be too late as agreements for space are signed going into 2036). The arrival of the DL 787 will be arriving the same time B goes up allowing Delta to launch some high CASM+cargo ops targeting Europe and South America too.

But, WN does have the AUS base which overshadows all the fluff I just mentioned


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Old 02-05-2026 | 09:44 AM
  #392  
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Originally Posted by Ripinpeace
Delta has been #1 in BOS for a while now. Excluding regional feed is arbitrary as it’s critical to feeding hubs and operates under the Delta umbrella for profit/loss. This gap will clearly grow as B6 falters, more pax default to DL+AMEX, and DL adds some gates in 28’ when the A+B connector is online and cont. to up-gauge.

AUS, the market share gap that exists today will close per the Lease Agreement with ABIA and CEO Badawi - “40-40-20 market share split”.

DL: 15 firm + 8 common in A
WN: 18 firm + 3 common in B

Delta will be anchored in the preferred terminal: A which will be immensely larger after the new A/D Hall finishes adding several hundred thousand sqft. Add in closer proximity to pickup/dropoff, intl/customs, two massive DL clubs, and a $250M investment by DL to refreshen the BJT. WN will lose its share advantage. It’s already in writing. Something has to change if WN is gonna remain competitive there.

The DL ecosystem of Regional feed + Skyteam/Codeshares/JV’s + Mainline will likely surpass WN in market share, ultimately. WN still has no plans for a club in AUS (may be too late as agreements for space are signed going into 2036). The arrival of the DL 787 will be arriving the same time B goes up allowing Delta to launch some high CASM+cargo ops targeting Europe and South America too.

But, WN does have the AUS base which overshadows all the fluff I just mentioned
I have a feeling Delta will be #2 in AUS. Just like they are in SEA where Delta has a regional feed+Skyteam/Codeshares/JV's and lounges, including Delta one, A330's, cargo and of course international facilities. Delta should be more worried about UAL. They have the momentum. Plus much bigger international footprint. The bread and butter of profits. Lots of domestic expansion in the works too.
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Old 02-05-2026 | 10:23 AM
  #393  
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Originally Posted by flyguy81
I wasn't around for the "Hey, fly these -800's for free and I'll make it up to you later" deal.
That's fine. If they want smaller jets, we'll be happy fly the E195-E2 for the same rate too!
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Old 02-05-2026 | 10:50 AM
  #394  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I've been here 30+. Well aware of the nature of the business.

Thanks for the snark.
So you lost your pension? How much did you have to give up to keep working there?
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Old 02-05-2026 | 01:00 PM
  #395  
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Originally Posted by MudhammedCJ
So you lost your pension? How much did you have to give up to keep working there?
Easy there. You forgot bankrupted, furloughed thousands for years, sold out scope and participated in the whipsaw wages of regionals. His obvious pride (hubris ?) in the recent temporal flash in the pan Delta success is well founded.
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Old 02-05-2026 | 01:42 PM
  #396  
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Originally Posted by Ebola
Easy there. You forgot bankrupted, furloughed thousands for years, sold out scope and participated in the whipsaw wages of regionals. His obvious pride (hubris ?) in the recent temporal flash in the pan Delta success is well founded.
I'm not trying to rub it in that it happened. And I'm happy for my Delta friends that they are making bank right now. This little shot from me was more or less a real question. How much did this guy give up if he worked through the bankruptcy contract and the lost pension. I remember flying with those guys 20 years ago that left with great seniority to start out at my crappy company because they wanted to save their pension. More or less I'm curious if the guy actually was employed through that dark time.
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Old 02-05-2026 | 02:31 PM
  #397  
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Originally Posted by CA1900
That's fine. If they want smaller jets, we'll be happy fly the E195-E2 for the same rate too!
If flying -800/-8 for same pay works for them, flying a smaller one for same pay works for me!
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Old 02-05-2026 | 03:58 PM
  #398  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
I was talking to my friends at SWA. Which got me thinking about some things. So I figured I'd ask a "larger" pool of SWA pilots.
Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Yeah... But you didn't "ask" a larger pool of SWA pilots.

Your post, the one that everybody mocked, was a typical delta diatribe talking about how amazing Delta is and how basically nobody has a chance against you or your vaunted business model. The only questions you asked in your original post were if we had ovens or first class seats. Questions you already know the answer to, so yeah, it came off as extremely condescending... because it was.

All these things are coming. Believe it or not, if we went out and spent $12-13B to match your net debt position, we could probably buy some seats and ovens.

Delta has a lot of strengths. Large domestic network with lots of small cities served that SWA does not. There's a lot of good in there, as there are admittedly holes in SWAs network.

Those small cities are all from hubs, a disadvantage compared to SWAs P2P connections, and while there are holes in SWA's network, is the fact that we don't serve Muskegon or Kalamazoo really that big of a deal considering we serve Grand Rapids?

Those cities are also almost exclusively served by legitimized B scale operators. Sure, that means that when (not if) SWA gets bigger airplanes, we might sacrifice some of that widebody fleet because we don't have quite the catchment that Delta/United/AA have. Personally, I'm willing to have a slightly smaller widebody fleet if it's because every SWA flight is flown by a SWA pilot. I'd also take our PDEW limits over your JV-happy contract. Your awesome product is also diluted by RJs (especially the Mitsubishi variety).

The hard product differentiators you have are lounges (SWA openly doing those), First Class (everybody expects this, and BJ and AW have openly discussed that they're looking at it), and ovens (BJ and AW have also talked about enhanced classes of service including meals).

And soft product? That's a fickle thing. I still remember the jetway posters and billboards in 2009 proclaiming the return of the red coats "you can't take shortcuts for good customer service" (or something like that). I thought it was hilariously ironic because Delta had done exactly that in the bankruptcy they just came out of: red coats went away for cost cutting.

You also talk as if the SWA business model is dying against the mighty Air Line and United, but our revenue has only been accelerating since our old entrenched management got fired.

You guys have a good product and a good network right now, but it's hardly the only functional, or even preferred, business model (or best product) out there. Hence why we're the largest carrier in almost half of the largest 50 markets in the US, why Alaska is much more popular in SEA, why United is winning in Chicago, and why American dominates in South America.

Believe it or not, Delta Air Lines cannot, and will not, be able to deply enough assets to fight and dominate all competitors in all markets. Including Austin.
Old 02-05-2026 | 06:28 PM
  #399  
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Originally Posted by MudhammedCJ
I'm not trying to rub it in that it happened. And I'm happy for my Delta friends that they are making bank right now. This little shot from me was more or less a real question. How much did this guy give up if he worked through the bankruptcy contract and the lost pension. I remember flying with those guys 20 years ago that left with great seniority to start out at my crappy company because they wanted to save their pension. More or less I'm curious if the guy actually was employed through that dark time.
lol. I was agreeing with you. Apparently my communication skills suck. Delta dude has a Jim Jones in the jungle vibe. It’s comforting to know that some stereotypes can still be relied upon.
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Old 02-05-2026 | 10:18 PM
  #400  
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Originally Posted by REF 5
IF, I say IF SWA does $4.00 as share in 2026(which is the low end of the guidance)or even as Jamie Baker put it(not my words)as he did a double upgrade on the stock, he put it at $5.00 to $6.00 a share, "SWA operating margins could be as high as Delta's in 2026". We'll see. Believe it or not its earnings are not based on "premium". Competition is good. RASM for SWA in the first quarter is guided to be up 9.5%. I have not seen that since the last decade for most carriers, let alone SWA. Proof will be in the report cards that they give out every 90 days. I reserve judgment until then.

As far as SEA goes, Delta and even NW were always number two. That hasn't changed in decades and probably won't anytime soon. The market share gap is as wide as a A350 in SEA. The only gap that is bigger is AUS. BOS is a different story. I agree that JBLU has issues. But don't think UAL or AAL will sit idle either. UAL is catching Delta very fast. UAL has a much bigger international footprint than Delta. More widebodies than Delta too. So far now you are top dog on the earnings front.
DL actually has a significantly larger international footprint and cargo footprint than UAL. The majority of those footprints is operated by cheaper JV labor though, which is why DL has larger profit sharing checks and can afford to spend billions on turf wars, SEA being one of them.

Originally Posted by flyguy81
Supposedly the lounge in HNL is under construction. No idea if/where others will be built. Hot food and first class isn’t our thing….prob never will be. If people want to be wined and dined with subpar reheated food, tv’s in the headrest that is constantly interrupted by every PA, etc, they can pay for that.

We changed to charge for bags and seats with a bit of a legroom upgrade for those who want it. No idea if/when we get another fleet…maybe we’ll be like Westjet and get a fleet of older 767’s to get the foot in the door while they shop 787’s. Who knows?

We are and probably always will be a LCC (not sure about the low cost part since any fares are the same as everyone else’s now)…but that isn’t likely to change anytime soon.

Honestly, I’d be happy to see us start making $ again and for planning to get their crap together and quit screwing with base manning. Former will prob happen before the latter.
If I was a WN pilot I'd definitely be more interested in management's ability to sustain selling a LCC+ product at the same price as a legacy carrier product than I would be about the base manning situation, it's pretty clear that doing it on the same routes as legacy carriers out of large hubs like DEN and ATL isn't going to be viable long term. Obviously commuting long-term sucks after getting displaced, but working for a carrier with a new and unproven business model is more unnerving when you're hitched to the airline for the duration of your decades long career. Frontier and Spirit have been doing the assigned seating thing forever and Spirit had the big front seat, both charged for checked bags, but neither could really compete once basic economy was fully rolled out at the legacy carriers. WN's bread and butter that built the company into the powerhouse of today was no-frills P2P flying from lower cost airports. Hopefully they can leverage the P2P network with the new frills and avoid costly turf wars in places like DEN, ATL, etc.
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